[FRIAM] Dry Line

[Nicholas Thompson]

Sorry, Frank. Haven’t been paying attention!

I will see if I can grab a look before I go to bed.

Nick

On Fri, Jun 7, 2024 at 8:31 PM Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com> wrote:

> A large rainstorm was approaching us from the south but before it got here
> it turned east.  Lucky Pecos.
>
> ---
> Frank C. Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>
> 505 670-9918
> Santa Fe, NM
>
> On Fri, Jun 7, 2024, 12:43 PM Nicholas Thompson <thompnickson2 at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>> According to the morning map, the dryline actually backed off into the RG
>> Valley over night, but now seems to have settled just east of the Sangres,
>> today.
>> [image: image.png]
>> Note the 50 degree dewpoint contour line.  (you have to draw it
>> yourself)
>>
>> Rail Yard WEb Cam shows a CN over the northern Sangres.
>>
>> N
>>
>> On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 11:21 AM Nicholas Thompson <
>> thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>> Two things to notice about today's dryline:
>>>
>>> First, the air in Santa Fe is getting moister.  Dewpoints approaching
>>> the 30's.
>>> [image: image.png]
>>>
>>>
>>> The steepest gradient in dewpoint is in N Texas where a bubble of very
>>> moist air is pushing into SE colorado.
>>>
>>> [image: image.png]
>>> Now, that plume of most air is only at the surface.   The dry air to the
>>> west of it is "warmer"  (higher THETA )  and should be over riding it at
>>> Amarillo.  Let's see.
>>>
>>> [image: image.png]
>>> Wow!  There's the characteristic pinetree shape of the elevated mixed
>>> layer.  Notice that in the first few meters the dewpoint falls dramatically
>>> and the surface relative temperature rises ten degrees centigrade.  Not
>>> very elevated.
>>>
>>> I wonder what the Storms Prediction Center is making of all of this.
>>>
>>> [image: image.png]
>>> Well, not a whole lot, actually, although  the text forecast is a bit
>>> more dramatic than the graphic one.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>  There will be
>>>    the potential for isolated thunderstorm development later this
>>>    afternoon along the west edge of the richer moisture (near the
>>>    western OK/TX border) where MLCAPE could exceed 5000 J/kg with only
>>>    small convective inhibition.  However, forcing for ascent will be
>>>    rather nebulous and storm initiation/coverage are both in question.
>>>    If storms form, there will be just enough vertical shear for
>>>    supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail, and
>>>    perhaps an isolated tornado. Confidence is greater in renewed
>>>    thunderstorm development across KS this afternoon and into OK late
>>>    this evening into early tonight, as a weak surface cold front and
>>>    associated midlevel trough will move southeastward and impinge on
>>>    the very moist/unstable warm sector.  Very large buoyancy and nearly
>>>    dry adiabatic lapse rates across OK will support large/tall storms
>>>    capable of producing isolated very large hail initially, and an
>>>    increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph) as storms grow
>>>    upscale into another MCS tonight.
>>>
>>> So ends your morning dryline report.
>>>
>>> I am trying to think about what you-guys are going to do about me.
>>> Since I am convinced that you all SHOULD be interested in dry lines, i am
>>> unlikely to stop.  So perhaps you should designate somebody to heroically
>>> fake an interest in this stuff fwith me and,  since I am clearly casting my
>>> seeds upon barren ground.  These MCS's that form down wind of the dry line
>>> are wonderful examples butterfly effect phenomina since the situation is s
>>> LOADED that very small effects produce very violent storms.
>>>
>>> Nick
>>>
>> -. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. .
>
>
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