[FRIAM] This afternoon's Tornado outbreak in nTX,wKS,wOK.

[Nicholas Thompson]

On Mon, May 6, 2024 at 1:29 PM Nicholas Thompson <thompnickson2 at gmail.com>
wrote:

> Dear Friammers, and some others,
>
> This a NerdPak, a collection of files that you would need to have before
> you if you were going to think about something, but were to busy to
> assemble.  You're Welcome.
>
>
>
>
> [image: image.png]
>
>
>
>   Mesoscale Discussion 0649
>
>    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
>
>    1147 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024
>
>
>
>    Areas affected...southern KS...western/central OK...and eastern TX
>
>    Panhandle
>
>
>
>    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
>
>
>
>    Valid 061647Z - 061845Z
>
>
>
>    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
>
>
>
>    SUMMARY...PDS Tornado Watch issuance will be needed ahead of this
>
>    portion of the dryline during the early afternoon. At least a few
>
>    long-track, discrete supercells are expected, becoming capable of
>
>    producing intense (EF3+) tornadoes.
>
>
>
>    DISCUSSION...16Z surface analysis placed the dryline from near
>
>    Garden City, KS to Lubbock, TX, with the Pacific cold front lagging
>
>    westward with southern extent in the southern High Plains. Airmass
>
>    continues to destabilize ahead of the dryline, with MLCIN becoming
>
>    weak into at least western OK and the TX Panhandle where
>
>    boundary-layer warming has been more prominent in cloud breaks.
>
>
>
>    The expectation is for initial dryline/Pacific front development to
>
>    occur in southwest KS and build south into the eastern TX
>
>    Panhandle/western OK vicinity by late afternoon. Ample low to
>
>    deep-layer shear will support several supercells with very large
>
>    hail, tornadoes, and severe gusts probable. The impinging of an
>
>    intense upper jet from NM into western OK over the next several
>
>    hours, along with strengthening of low-level flow this evening, will
>
>    yield an increasingly favorable kinematic environment for long-track
>
>    and intense supercells capable of significant tornadoes, especially
>
>    with southern extent in western/central OK.
>
>
>
>  Below is the Amarillo Skew T.  note the warm dry air aloft.  This serves
> as a temporary cap to tstorm development which the storms will break
> through later in the afternoon.
> [image: image.png]
>
> Below, regional synoptic map showing pacific front to the west, polar
> front to the east, dryline (close dotted contours of dewpoint).   Note
> that the dew point increases some 50 degrees across the dryline.
>
>
> [image: image.png]
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Below is the last crucial component, a jet streak moving in from the
> west.  This will help evacuate the storms at the top and may also provide
> additional lift.
> [image: image.png]
>
> And finally, at 1.28 Mountain, the first storms developing over central KS
>
> [image: image.png]
>
>
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