[FRIAM] What if Trump Wins?

[steve smith]

Pieter -

It is very useful to me to have the geopolitical parallax you offer.  If 
in fact many folks outside the USA see Trump as an effective negotiator, 
up to and including "bullying as negotiation by other means" then this 
is significant and interesting to me.

As I've referenced a few times, I'm interested in the NATO+/BRICS+ 
polarization that has emerged.   Do you identify as a SA (Dutch descent 
vs English?) with BRICS or is it a fiction that you and/or SA don't buy 
into?   A significant correlation (IMO) among BRICS+ nations is a strong 
authoritarianism or at least democratic backsliding.   Trump has already 
undermined NATO's stability and will likely do it again, some more up to 
withdrawal/abandonment.  Will that lead to "joining" BRICS+?  It seems 
unlikely Trump's style suggests he will set himself (with US 
economic/military might) up as a third faction in a multipolar world.

I'm sympathetic with those who cringe at a Unipolar or even Bipolar 
world which has been forming and reforming since WWI it seems?   Yet I 
also think we are inevitably becoming a global superorganism?    It does 
seem likely that multiple super-organisms will form a dynamic balance 
before they eventually lose their independent identities.  Perhaps that 
can only occur fully as humanity (and Terran life in general?) go 
extra-planetary?

I recently listened to an interview with Kimball Musk which expanded my 
appreciation for how complex social dynamics are or have been in SA, and 
how the violence of their childhood was formative for both he and Elon 
(in complementary ways?).

More parallax is good.

FWIW I don't think Trump's negotiating style is entirely ineffective, 
obviously he has obtained the power he has through some kinds of 
effectuality.  My issue is whether "bullying is negotiation by other 
means" and whether I want to support or profit from it or be associated 
with it.   I rode Elno's coat-tails financially (TSLA stock) for a while 
but finally felt I absolutely had to wipe his cooties off of me... his 
most recent behaviour (starting with Twitter takeover, ramping up with 
dancing giddily on stage with Trump and setting up $1M lotteries to 
motivate support) is beyond *my* pale (what a convoluted idiom that one 
is!).

- Steve
> There seems to be a strong consensus in this group that Trump does not 
> have a track record of being an effective negotiator, and his 
> perceived bullying only reinforces this view. So, contrary to what I 
> previously suggested, it’s not a separate issue.
>
> This topic has come up in various threads, and I may have overlooked 
> some of those discussions, which could mean I’ve been asserting things 
> that differ from what’s already been broadly accepted here.
>
> For now, I’ll step back from this thread and acknowledge that my 
> perspective on Trump as an effective negotiator isn’t widely shared. 
> Let's agree to disagree.