[FRIAM] What if Trump Wins?

Sat Nov 2 01:04:01 EDT 2024

Steve,

I’d like to address your question: "*Do you identify as a South African
(Dutch descent vs. English) with BRICS, or is it a fiction that you and/or
South Africa don't buy into? A significant correlation (IMO) among BRICS+
nations is strong authoritarianism or at least democratic backsliding." *

I’ll start with an executive summary followed by details.

*Executive Summary*
Under former President Jacob Zuma, South Africa experienced a slide toward
autocracy and poor governance, with Zuma developing close ties to Russia.
However, the current President Cyril Ramaphosa has shifted the country back
to pragmatic governance, actively rooting out corruption and establishing
good governance practices. The focus now is primarily on service delivery
and addressing everyday issues, with less emphasis on BRICS and other
global matters.

*A wee bit more details*

*Historical Background and BRICS Dynamics*
South Africa’s relationship with BRICS has deep historical roots. In the
1980s, liberation movements like the ANC received significant support from
Russia and China to overthrow the apartheid regime. The ANC, initially led
by Nelson Mandela and later by others, established pragmatic ties with both
Western and BRICS countries, leading to South Africa’s membership in BRICS.

*Recent Political Developments*
In the April general election this year, the ANC lost its outright majority
and formed a coalition government with the DA, known as the Government of
National Unity (GNU). The ANC secured approximately 40% of the vote, while
the DA received around 20%. The GNU also includes several minor parties,
but it effectively functions as a coalition between the ANC and DA.

*Socio-Political Landscape*
*Support Base:* ANC supporters are predominantly Black, while the DA has
significant support among white voters, though it also includes Black
supporters.

As for me personally, I find myself somewhat on the fence: I lean toward
supporting the DA, but I also have very high regards for Cyril Ramaphosa’s
leadership, focussing on inclusion and good governance, even if I don’t
fully support the ANC.

*Governance:* The Government of National Unity GNU has been effective in
improving service delivery and addressing basic needs. Leadership from both
the ANC and DA appears mature and cooperative, working together to enhance
the lives of ordinary citizens, despite some exceptions and complexities.

*BRICS Conference and Internal Dynamics*

Recently, Russia hosted a BRICS conference attended by President Ramaphosa,
who displayed warm relations with President Putin. This has caused internal
friction within the DA, particularly among its white supporters who
strongly oppose Russia’s actions in the Ukraine war. However, the
prevailing sentiment is that focusing on service delivery and pressing
domestic issues outweighs concerns over South Africa’s implicit support for
Putin’s actions. As a result, Ramaphosa’s engagement with Russia is
generally accepted without significant controversy.

*Specifically addressing your questions*

*Governance and Authoritarianism*
*Jacob Zuma’s Era*

Zuma was marked by corruption and authoritarian tendencies.

*Current situation under Cyril Ramaphosa’s Leadership*

There is a strong shift toward good governance under Ramaphosa, emphasizing
transparency and accountability.

*BRICS Relationships:* Historical Support: The support from Russia and
China during the liberation struggle has left a lasting positive impression
among the majority of Black South Africans.

*Current Sentiment*: This historical alliance continues to influence
contemporary views, making BRICS relationships generally favorable among
the population.

*Ramaphosa’s Pragmatism:* Diplomatic Strategy: Ramaphosa’s warm relations
with Putin are likely aimed at acknowledging historical support and
maintaining strong ties with BRICS nations.

*Future Orientation:* His focus appears to be on leveraging Western
partnerships to further South Africa’s development based on democratic
principles and good governance, distancing the country from authoritarian
influences.

Pieter

On Fri, 1 Nov 2024 at 18:23, steve smith <sasmyth at swcp.com> wrote:

>
> Pieter -
>
> It is very useful to me to have the geopolitical parallax you offer.  If
> in fact many folks outside the USA see Trump as an effective negotiator,
> up to and including "bullying as negotiation by other means" then this
> is significant and interesting to me.
>
> As I've referenced a few times, I'm interested in the NATO+/BRICS+
> polarization that has emerged.   Do you identify as a SA (Dutch descent
> vs English?) with BRICS or is it a fiction that you and/or SA don't buy
> into?   A significant correlation (IMO) among BRICS+ nations is a strong
> authoritarianism or at least democratic backsliding.   Trump has already
> undermined NATO's stability and will likely do it again, some more up to
> withdrawal/abandonment.  Will that lead to "joining" BRICS+?  It seems
> unlikely Trump's style suggests he will set himself (with US
> economic/military might) up as a third faction in a multipolar world.
>
> I'm sympathetic with those who cringe at a Unipolar or even Bipolar
> world which has been forming and reforming since WWI it seems?   Yet I
> also think we are inevitably becoming a global superorganism?    It does
> seem likely that multiple super-organisms will form a dynamic balance
> before they eventually lose their independent identities.  Perhaps that
> can only occur fully as humanity (and Terran life in general?) go
> extra-planetary?
>
> I recently listened to an interview with Kimball Musk which expanded my
> appreciation for how complex social dynamics are or have been in SA, and
> how the violence of their childhood was formative for both he and Elon
> (in complementary ways?).
>
> More parallax is good.
>
> FWIW I don't think Trump's negotiating style is entirely ineffective,
> obviously he has obtained the power he has through some kinds of
> effectuality.  My issue is whether "bullying is negotiation by other
> means" and whether I want to support or profit from it or be associated
> with it.   I rode Elno's coat-tails financially (TSLA stock) for a while
> but finally felt I absolutely had to wipe his cooties off of me... his
> most recent behaviour (starting with Twitter takeover, ramping up with
> dancing giddily on stage with Trump and setting up $1M lotteries to
> motivate support) is beyond *my* pale (what a convoluted idiom that one
> is!).
>
> - Steve
> > There seems to be a strong consensus in this group that Trump does not
> > have a track record of being an effective negotiator, and his
> > perceived bullying only reinforces this view. So, contrary to what I
> > previously suggested, it’s not a separate issue.
> >
> > This topic has come up in various threads, and I may have overlooked
> > some of those discussions, which could mean I’ve been asserting things
> > that differ from what’s already been broadly accepted here.
> >
> > For now, I’ll step back from this thread and acknowledge that my
> > perspective on Trump as an effective negotiator isn’t widely shared.
> > Let's agree to disagree.
>
>
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