[FRIAM] betting markets

[glen]

Both Kalshi <https://kalshi.com/markets/pres/presidential-elections> and PolyMarket <https://polymarket.com/elections> skew heavily for Trump. I'm like ... 51% confident that Harris will win (barring legal shenanigans).  I figured I'd go ahead and participate. So I bought $50 worth of Harris "yes". And I've heard that there may be some rich people manipulating the market. It's not clear to me why they'd do that. But like Musk buying Twitter, it's clear that "disposable" income takes on a deeper meaning when you've got so much of it. But barring market manipulation: a) do y'all think the markets have more "information", whatever that means, than the polls? And b) are y'all participating in any of these markets?

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