[FRIAM] betting markets

[Pietro Terna]

     Hi all,

     from Italy I look at 
https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/iem_market_info/2024-u-s-presidential-winner-takes-all-market/ 
and I hope...

     Best, Pietro



Il 04/11/24 19:55, glen ha scritto:
> Both Kalshi <https://kalshi.com/markets/pres/presidential-elections> 
> and PolyMarket <https://polymarket.com/elections> skew heavily for 
> Trump. I'm like ... 51% confident that Harris will win (barring legal 
> shenanigans).  I figured I'd go ahead and participate. So I bought $50 
> worth of Harris "yes". And I've heard that there may be some rich 
> people manipulating the market. It's not clear to me why they'd do 
> that. But like Musk buying Twitter, it's clear that "disposable" 
> income takes on a deeper meaning when you've got so much of it. But 
> barring market manipulation: a) do y'all think the markets have more 
> "information", whatever that means, than the polls? And b) are y'all 
> participating in any of these markets?
>

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