[FRIAM] How democracies die

[Barry MacKichan]

Actually, depopulation is already underway. Birth rates are below the 
equilibrium value in many countries, and most of the others are headed 
in that direction. I believe that the current estimate is that 2050 will 
be the peak year for the world population.

How we manage this is an important task.

As we transition into this stage, the ratio of the populations of the 
various groups will depend strongly on when and how much their birth 
rates decline. One estimate is that by 2100, the population of 
Sub-Saharan Africa, as a fraction of the world population, will be six 
times what it is now.

This link is unfortunately paywalled [The Age of Depopulation: Surviving 
a World Gone 
Gray](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/age-depopulation-surviving-world-gone-gray-nicholas-eberstadt) 
(you can read it if you give your email address to them), but if you 
have the time, the author gave a lecture in Australia. [The Coming 
Global Depopulation | Nicholas Eberstadt | John Bonython Lecture - 
YouTube](https://youtu.be/ahjdeDhP09o)

— Barry

On 6 Nov 2024, at 10:58, glen wrote:

> With 8 billion people on the planet, liberalism is a fantasy, or 
> perhaps just a fossilized ideology we have to grow out of as the old 
> people die. Of course, we could depopulate the earth and resuscitate 
> liberalism that way. But that sounds more painful than changing our 
> minds. Hm. Maybe it is easier to kill and die than it is to change 
> one's mind? IDK.
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