[FRIAM] How democracies die

[Marcus Daniels]

Seems like a lot of people will try to leave Africa because of climate change. I suppose they’ll end up in Europe, creating yet more folks like Trump to rile people up about it. 

From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of Barry MacKichan <barry.mackichan at mackichan.com>
Date: Thursday, November 7, 2024 at 8:03 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] How democracies die 

Actually, depopulation is already underway. Birth rates are below the equilibrium value in many countries, and most of the others are headed in that direction. I believe that the current estimate is that 2050 will be the peak year for the world population. 
How we manage this is an important task. 
As we transition into this stage, the ratio of the populations of the various groups will depend strongly on when and how much their birth rates decline. One estimate is that by 2100, the population of Sub-Saharan Africa, as a fraction of the world population, will be six times what it is now. 
This link is unfortunately paywalled The Age of Depopulation: Surviving a World Gone Gray <https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/age-depopulation-surviving-world-gone-gray-nicholas-eberstadt> (you can read it if you give your email address to them), but if you have the time, the author gave a lecture in Australia. The Coming Global Depopulation | Nicholas Eberstadt | John Bonython Lecture - YouTube <https://youtu.be/ahjdeDhP09o> 
— Barry 
On 6 Nov 2024, at 10:58, glen wrote: 
With 8 billion people on the planet, liberalism is a fantasy, or perhaps just a fossilized ideology we have to grow out of as the old people die. Of course, we could depopulate the earth and resuscitate liberalism that way. But that sounds more painful than changing our minds. Hm. Maybe it is easier to kill and die than it is to change one's mind? IDK. 


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