[FRIAM] acutely destructive fires in Utah/Grand Canyon
Steve Smith
sasmyth at swcp.com
Wed Jul 16 14:22:00 EDT 2025
DaveW -
Same to you and more of it ;>)
I don't dismiss the fact that the bureaucrats (including my father
during his tenure) have a whole different set of values and skills than
the guys opening/closing their irrigation gates, moving salt around
grazing areas to encourage the "slow elk" (aka cattle) to graze more
evenly, cutting new roads into the forest to access mineral /timber
resources, etc. Naturally those trying to make a living (actually
always a *profit* by some measure) will have a different balance between
the resources they expend and the resources they extract than the folks
who (on the surface) are charged with protecting a commons for the
entire citizenry. I doubt you can find many 'locals' in an
extractive-industry (including ranching) area who don't believe that the
"public land" is more *theirs* than it is yours or mine or some jerkball
living in the Penthouse of Trump Tower. Homesteading was a mechanism
for such.
I also acknowledge that the unique way Utah (Deseret) was formed and
artifacts like outlawing polygamy, etc. makes the one-size-fits-all
approach a modest failure. My own experience splitting my life between
AZ and NM reflects that as well. And my experience in CO (and UT to a
lesser extent) shows our 4-corners are 4 unique histories/milieus. So
yes, I bet the Mormons living in Southern Utah (thanks for more
backround on the Orderville history
<https://www.britannica.com/place/Orderville>) have an extra twist in
their undershorts as might the Ute/Paiute/Dine descendents on the other
side of theBlack Hawk War
<https://www.uen.org/utah_history_encyclopedia/b/BLACK_HAWK_WAR.shtml>.
Trump didn't drain any swamps, he brought his own swamp creatures in
(alligators to crocodiles?). It was a pretty promise, but it was never
a good faith promise... about 1/10 of my "rural" friends seemed to get
that early on (2015) and maybe that number is up to 1/5 now and the
possible decimation of the VA, Medicare/Medicade/SS and the
privatization of public lands might bump that up a little more, but
somehow there seems to be a nose-face spiting afoot?
I suggest this is an indication of how virulent such folks (also find
many working class not-so-rural versions) feelings are against the
presumed "ruling elite" or "libtards" or "wokes" are that they can still
choke down Trump's (and his metastisizing minions) worst (clearly
deliberate and formulated) behaviours.
I'm not clear on your Carbon point. If you are suggesting that cutting
back the giant sucking, industrializing, combusting of sequestered
carbon-as-petroleum/coal/NatlGas would have some untoward environmental
consequences compared to continuing the
drill-baby-drill/burn-baby-burn/pedal-to-metal heuristic we currently
are dead set on, then I'm pretty confused as to what that would be? I
do accept that if the Fossil Fuel industry (from wealthy
owners/executives thereof down to the poor bloke who chose to follow in
his father's footsteps working on a driling rig or downhole in a coal
mine) were to lose it's momentum to other (not without *their*
unintended consequences) forms of
hyper-industrial/hyper-corporate/hyper-technological methods of
obtaining/routing energy to our hungry mob of humans called modern
technological civilization, that the unintended (economic/cultural)
consequences would be significant, possibly outrageous and true-to-form
possibly "worse than the last"... not because our former methods weren't
highly problematic, or because the specifics of the new plan are acutely
problematic, but because "kicking the can down the road" is always a
problem?
I am definitely a fan of Brunner with /Shockwave Rider /my favorite and
/Zanzibar /(probably) my first. I was a very different person when I
read the referenced /Sheep/. Maybe not so different cum /Shockwave
Rider/. Reviewing the material, I see the very specific theme of
/Sheep /being a very direct and apt reference to the current
discussion: to wit, palliatives and half-measures.
The /Club of Rome Quartet/ is now on my to (re)read list... thanks for
the nudge, it might creep above my re-visit to Wil McCarthy's
/Collapsium/Bloom/ series.
= SaS
On 7/16/2025 8:51 AM, Prof David West wrote:
> Steve,
>
> Raining all day today, thunderstorms last night, temp in high sixties.
> Wonderful relief.
>
> Enjoyed your thoughtful response and agree with what you say with some
> minor addenda:
>
> 1) people in general in southern Utah: probably close to 90% Mormon
> and 70% Trump voters. But, issues like climate change, trans folk,
> immigrants, etc. were never hot button issues. "Government over reach"
> was THE primary reason for voting Trump. (People thought he might
> correct it by dismantling the deep state, and to some extent that is
> happening). The overreach of concern were things like EPA trying to
> regulate irrigation ditches and BLM changing rules on 'cows-per-acre'
> on government land and national monuments. There is also a lot of
> anti-Federal government resentment stemming from the time Utah became
> a state and the Feds not only outlawed polygamy, but also took the
> right to vote away from women and forced the breakup of the United
> Order. Orderville, was probably the best success story for United
> Order, amassing immense wealth and controlling a territory from the
> Colorado river, on east and north of Grand Canyon, to almost St.
> George on the west and Bryce Canyon to the north. And, there is a
> definite sense that "we know better than some pointy-head bureaucrat,
> laced with a dose of entitlement.
>
> 2)There was also a lot of push back on climate solutions, like
> electric vehicles—deemed totally impractical because of typical travel
> distances out west. Example, it was a 120 mile round trip from my
> house to the nearest major grocery store.
>
> 3) probably not a misquote, but more a mis-statement on my part. I
> definitely was pretty dismissive of the popular and political
> expressions of climate crisis because they seemed so superficial and
> almost silly to me. But I wish I had taken them seriously enough to
> actually engage the science behind the headlines.
>
> 4) I do hold "real scientists" to be more complicit than you do. Not
> their fault in a sense, but when science became the captive of
> government and large corporate financing, it pretty much ceased to be
> "science."
>
> 5) I won't disagree with you about carbon, but do reserve the right,
> should unanticipated side effects show up, to say I told you so. After
> all, eliminating flourocarbons did seem to close the ozone hole with
> no unintended consequences.
>
> 6) The problem with any pandemic or "civil-unrest/toxic-waste/denuded
> biosphere bed" is making sure the rich and powerful are, at least, as
> affected as the proletariat and poor. BTW, have you read John
> Brunner's, /The Sheep Look Up/? Fun read.
>
> 7) somewhat paradoxically, I used to be reasonably hard core
> technological optimistic myself. But, computing technology and the
> current AI mania pretty much destroyed every vestige of optimism.
>
> davew
>
>
> On Tue, Jul 15, 2025, at 7:59 PM, Steve Smith wrote:
>>
>>
>> DaveW -
>> :
>>> Hi Steve,
>>>
>>> I am living in beautiful Saint Paul MN: 90 degrees and 90% humidity.
>>> No air conditioning in our house. Dogs retreated to under porch
>>> digging nests in the cooler soil - I just swelter. Oh, the air is
>>> polluted with tons of smoke—"very dangerous level"—from the half of
>>> Canada that is being consumed with fire.
>> In St. Paul, don't you have a basement? Nothing like ground-coupling
>> to mitigate the wild swings of air temperature we are
>> experiencing.... like the dogs under the porch know! I've never lived
>> with a basement but always wonderd why a HEPA or similar filter on a
>> basement window and a fan drawing air up from the coolth of below
>> wouldn't give some whole-house relief?
>>>
>>> My brother still lives in southern Utah, about midway between Bryce
>>> and Zion. There was a huge fire just to the east of him (about 20
>>> miles) burning east and north, then the two Grand Canyon fires. Has
>>> had smoke issues a couple of days but nothing more.
>> To your next point, were many of your neighbors when you lived there,
>> climate skeptics? Are they thinking "jewish space lasers" now?
>>>
>>> I have never been a climate change skeptic, nor unwilling to
>>> acknowledge the role played by humans.
>>
>> I was once a mild skeptic myself... mostly in the vein of what you
>> say later with: "any meaningful effect on forces that accumulated
>> over 2-10 centuries"... the climate science (not even called that yet
>> of the 90s was sneaking up on the problem one metric at a time and
>> were consistently finding "bad news" but I had a hard time ignoring
>> the implied "hubris" of the more vocal climate activists (grown out
>> of an environmental activism of the time which I was significantly
>> aligned with in spirit if not detail). It wasn't particularl
>> alarmist quite yet... if anything the folks working on the
>> proto-field were *under* reacting (as seen in hindsight today).
>>
>> I was just remembering a short note you once shared suggesting "the
>> one thing I feel a little guilty about is not taking Climate Change
>> more seriously earlier"? It might be a bad misquote and it really
>> doesn't matter... I think we *all* recognize that things have
>> probably been worse than we realized for some time? Or not.
>>
>>> I have been a critic of the monolithic orthodoxy surrounding the
>>> political and "scientific" posturing. But that is just my general
>>> antipathy to simplistic science.
>>
>> I think I know that about you and respect it and to some extent share
>> it. I am not as *allergic* to it as I once was and find many
>> today. It is this hyper-immune response I'm trying to understand at
>> the collective level (returning to the question of whether a mob of
>> angry people is actually an angry mob in the same way as the people
>> themselves are).
>>
>> My father's peers from the timber/ranching world were signicantly
>> hyper-immune to anybody telling them anything whilst falling back on
>> the idea that "public lands" belonged to the public (in their case,
>> to them personally somehow) while ignoring that the spanish-descended
>> settlers in the valley were there before their grandfathers came with
>> repeating rifles and rousted these folks who only had hoes and
>> shovels to defend themselves. They of course were mostly backfill
>> taking over the semi-traditional hunting/foraging grounds of the
>> Dine' (Apache) rounded up by the US Cavalry after the Civil War, who
>> in fact hadn't really been there that many generations since *they*
>> wandered in from the PNW and forced the more sedentary, less
>> aggressive Mogollon (descendents) out.
>>
>> Some of this is willfully ignorant greed and hubris... but as I knew
>> these folks (through their kids), they were pretty sincere about
>> everything they did (otherwise) and had I not seen it from the Freddy
>> (Federal Government Representative) side at least part of the time I
>> too might have armed myself to the teeth and played
>> Waco/Ruby-Ridge/BundyRanch as they like to ( orat least pretend to be
>> ready to do). And given the current gutting (to the backbone) of
>> many of the federal agencies under Trump for the benefit of at least
>> the big corporations but also, at least superficially the folks I
>> just referenced who voted for him 3 times and are ready to put him
>> back in charge for another 30 years even if they have to wheel his
>> stuffed carcass out on stage with an LLM-driven speaker in his face,
>> I thnk we have an immune-response problem. I'll grant that the
>> insults delivered to the body politic that elicited the immune
>> response were a problem, maybe even (now we know where it leads)
>> unconsciounable, but it is the immune response that is killing us.
>>
>>> Gaia is a *complex* system (person)
>> I'm a bit panconscious/animistic by temperament myself, whether i
>> want to project onto the entire earth system anything acutely
>> human-nature like or not.
>>> so when scientists treat her otherwise
>> I'd blame engineers and economists and politicians and specifically
>> those with vested money/power/professional interests more than "real
>> scientists" though most of the scientists I've worked with play
>> engineer and vested capitalist (their grants and salary and even
>> bonuses and other perks may well depend on pleasing the current
>> powers-that-be) much of the time. The folks with a non-linear
>> perspective, with a complex-systems lens, and not too attached to
>> getting rich and famous and selling their best ideas to the highest
>> bidder and publishing the most papers, they don't do this so much.
>>> —as if she was a deterministic system—and make bold, and dire,
>>> predictions, set absolute tipping points, etc., I just want to
>>> scream liar liar. It is more complicated than that—as our former
>>> colleague at FRIAM used to say.
>> I am more incensed by those who *take* those predictions and tipping
>> points and make them bold and dire and absolute to promote *their*
>> agenda, than those who ?innocently? gave them that ammunition.
>>> Worse, are the "solutions."
>> The geo-engineers among us are the most offensive IMO... to carry the
>> legacy of the folks who fouled the nest and then insisting that their
>> new version of "fouling for profit" will "solve everything" is a good
>> example. Even though I've been a vehicle-efficiency nut since I
>> bought my first motorcycle, rode my bicycle primarily during college,
>> and owned (mostly) high efficiency vehicles of various stripes up to
>> and including trying to electrify a couple of vehicles (by thinking
>> hard about it which as it turns out never gets anything done), I am
>> pretty sure it is the car-culture I was raised up in (and embrace to
>> this day) that is a big component of our
>> pollution/energy-consumption/personal dis-connection, thoughtless
>> hyperconsumption problems. Electrons vs Petrol vs Diesel and
>> 100mpg vs 10mpg are likely just deck-chairs on the Titanic.
>>> There is no way to know if reducing carbon will, in fact, have the
>>> effect expected, let alone, solve the problem
>> Au contraire... only a little look into the facts will make it pretty
>> clear that the "nutrient cycling" of sequestered carbon from millenia
>> ago into our atmosphere at mega-industrial rates, as primarily CO2
>> and CH4 is a YUUUGE greenhouse driver. I agree that backing off now
>> on driving the flywheel might seem pretty hopeless, but "put the
>> pedal to the metal" and "drill baby drill" is not just wrong but
>> acutely wrong-headed unless of course apocalypse is our goal? End
>> times? Rapture anyone? I prefer Gibson's "Jackpot"
>>> . And why does anyone think that human actions over a span of one or
>>> two decades will have any meaningful effect on forces that
>>> accumulated over 2-10 centuries?
>> If I thought the worst of our environmental/species-collapse was
>> triggered *more* by the deforestation of Europe that was *already* a
>> problem in 1492 or the REforestation of North America implied by the
>> Orbis Spike or the acute particulate pollution raining down on London
>> (and surrounds) as the Welsh/Brits learned to burn coal (poorly) and
>> turn it into everything from motive power to cooking/heat source, or
>> the replacement of horses in NYC circa 1900 with ICE motor vehicles
>> (replacing feet thick layers of horse manure with "invisible" engine
>> exhaust,...........................................................
>> than for example the range of coal/crude-oil/natural-gas to
>> CO2/CO/particulates we have dumped into the atmosphere in my
>> adulthood (50 years) then I would agree "it doesn't matter what we do
>> tomorrow".
>>> "Human Caused Climate Change" has ceased to be a scientific issue
>>> and become nothing more than a cudgel used by various groups to
>>> increase their political and economic power at the expense of the
>>> others. (No cynicism here.)
>>
>> Yeh, it's used a s cudgel, but I think MAGA took that away from the
>> lilly livered, bleeding heart liberals and while they are busy
>> beating them into the ground, are also taking out the baby seals,
>> beluga whales, silvery minnows, spotted owls, and the (non-european)
>> immigrants who pick our produce, pluck and butcher our chickens,
>> clean our toilets and keep our children from running out into the
>> street in front of 1 ton 'murrican made 4x4 double-cab dually diesels
>> "rolling coal" while sporting Trump/Confederate flags not to mention
>> a non-trivial subset of the folks who wear their MAGA hats too tight
>> and are ready to vote Trump in again for as many terms as they can
>> prop his taxidermed carcass up (with an LLM-driven speaker in his
>> mouth)... </rant>
>>
>>> Mostly, i am betting on Gaia to solve the problem in her own way.
>>> Probably indirectly with a mega-pandemic or some such.
>>
>> I'm with you on this one, though I think a mega-pandemic would be a
>> coup-de-grace where my cynicism/schadenfruede side wants us to wallow
>> in our own civil-unrest/toxic-waste/denuded biosphere bed which we
>> are making for a few centuries, before Gaia finally let's us pass on
>> to re-incarnate as-a-species (whole/group conflation extra-ordinaire)
>> with enough fresh humility to work our way back up some evolutionary
>> chain to see if we can do "sentient" better?
>>
>> And on the other hand Techno Utopians as Pieter (mildly) represents
>> might be right, we might be able to build humanoid robots with so
>> many legs and such good dexterity that they can kick *all the cans*
>> down the road faster than we (and they) can toss new ones into our
>> own path?
>>
>> The snail climbs mt Fuji
>> Slowly, slowly
>>
>> Or maybe not, maybe just pave the planet with PV panels and data
>> centers so yokels like me can blather on on an internet Mail List
>> instead of going out and nurturing the fig tree I thoughtlessly
>> transplanted during the hottest time of the hottest summer in this
>> area yet? Probably nothing to do with Carbon cycling... so far our
>> winters aren't getting colder, maybe I can just help warmer-climate
>> flora/fauna migrate north through my window.
>>>
>>> davew
>>>
>>>
>>> On Tue, Jul 15, 2025, at 5:03 PM, Steve Smith wrote:
>>> > DaveW -
>>> >
>>> > I know you have moved from SoUtah to the Great Lakes (MI?) but must
>>> > still have family friends living back in Utah, not that far really
>>> from
>>> > both the North Rim fire which just burned the Grand Lodge (and much
>>> > more) there, and the LaSal FIreNado that was so spectacular and
>>> took out
>>> > a small off-grid community there.
>>> >
>>> > I think you have reflected on feeling some regret over not taking
>>> > Climate Change more seriously earlier (we all have our processes and
>>> > paths around these types of things). I grew up around fire and
>>> > fire-fighting, mostly in rural pinon/ponderosa forests with my
>>> father as
>>> > a USFS disctrict ranger who used to also spend one or several
>>> multi-week
>>> > stints leading fire-crews in the Pacific NW or California. There
>>> was
>>> > no conception of there being a global scale warming/drying, but I do
>>> > remember him being acutely aware that "a good Spring" meant "a bad
>>> > Summer" in those Pacific forests, yielding a great deal more
>>> > undergrowth, etc to carry fire on the ground even before/outside the
>>> > bigger-hotter fires that would travel crown-crown.
>>> >
>>> > What I'm circling in on is the question of the general denial we have
>>> > all perhaps been engaged in, each in our own way, about the sweeping
>>> > (nominally global if not Global) changes which human activity has
>>> > triggered. I once (a decade ago?) invoked the idea that homo
>>> sapiens,
>>> > at the end of the pleistocene, were the cause (as much indirectly as
>>> > directly) of the plunge in Megafauna in both the New World and
>>> northern
>>> > Eurasia. Glen schooled me on the counter-arguments against that
>>> theory
>>> > and I don't need to re-litigate that range of possibilities so
>>> much as
>>> > to simply point out that "homo sapiens" is an acutely *potent*
>>> species,
>>> > especially come neolithics, agriculture, written language,
>>> urbanization,
>>> > modern technological development (from archimedes to daVinci to the
>>> > folks doing the work in Musk's (and others) name).
>>> >
>>> > All this background to open the question of whether the otherwise
>>> > well-grounded, fundamentally intelligent, situationally clever folks
>>> > which I grew up around and DaveW (and others here I am sure) feel an
>>> > affinity with or closeness to (Permaculturists before Bill Mollison?)
>>> > have shifted "forward" to recognizing that the rate of change of our
>>> > (humans + domesticates + tech + self-modifying tech) is yielding
>>> > "unexpected consequences" in a short enough time frame to see the
>>> > consequences of our actions (albeit years or decades later, but not
>>> > generations?). If my belief that homo-sapiens managed to disrupt
>>> the
>>> > megafauna (by spearing/driving-them-off-cliffs, or just disrupting
>>> all
>>> > aspects of the ecologies they depended on) holds any water, no
>>> > individual likely woke up one day and asked "where did all the
>>> Mastadons
>>> > go?" or even " where did those huge hairy, tusky creatures my great
>>> > grandfather used to speak of go?", but we are a smear of generations
>>> > (born 30's through 90s?) who likely recognize that truisms we grew up
>>> > with about the natural world as well as the political and economic
>>> > system are no longer what we either were taught to believe they
>>> were or
>>> > came to believe through our direct experience they were?
>>> >
>>> > My father struggled with the locals who lived on cattle ranching and
>>> > lumber milling, not accepting that those resources they depended
>>> on were
>>> > not infiinite... they saw the limits of "timber sales" and "grazing
>>> > allotments" a huge inconvenience (at best) to an acute insult to them
>>> > and their ability to "just make a living". The local bar in the
>>> town I
>>> > went to grade school in sports a taxidermed owl with the sign "eat an
>>> > owl, save a logger" (for example). Some of the locals who worked as
>>> > seasonal fire-fighters occasionally would get busted for lighting off
>>> > forest fires to create work for themselves. My father was very
>>> pleased
>>> > with the roughly 50% of the ranchers he worked with who actually had
>>> > studied (formally or informally) range management and were as
>>> eager as
>>> > he was to make sure that 5-10 years later the grasslands their cattle
>>> > were grazing on were at least as healthy as the were today and often
>>> > they were interested in returning a formerly overgrazed section into
>>> > something yet-more-productive. Then were the other 50% who were
>>> just mad
>>> > because *they* didn't get to take *their half out of the middle*.
>>> >
>>> > Mary's milieu was primarily W. Nebraska farmers who are still voting
>>> > Trump back in every chance they get, even though somewhere along the
>>> > line, most understand that the wells they sunk into the Oglala in the
>>> > 60s are now dry and have to be deepened and that the dead seeds
>>> Monsanto
>>> > (and their ilk) and Fertilizers and Insecticides their fathers poured
>>> > over the landscape with gusto might well be the source of their
>>> cancers
>>> > and other maladies.
>>> >
>>> > Our own founder's main business in this domain (visualizing and
>>> modeling
>>> > Wildfire and many other topographic/topological registered phenomena)
>>> > naturally engage with folks who are acute stakeholders in the areas
>>> > which are burning/flooding/toxic-pluming/eroding/etc. I understand
>>> > that Guerin has his own (equally good) reasons as Glen not to mix
>>> work
>>> > and FriAM.
>>> >
>>> > And yet we are watching something as overwhelming as the Dustbowl
>>> of the
>>> > 30s sweeping the whole earth, and yet we are arguing over whether EVs
>>> > cost more to operate because they are heavier and wear brakes and
>>> tires
>>> > faster? Or whether the area of strip coal mine rendered useless for
>>> > other purposes is better or worse than the same area covered in PV
>>> panels?
>>> >
>>> > Ok... just a rant... triggered by my childhood memories of watching
>>> > fires crown across the road near our home while watching firenados
>>> > destroy places I'v evisited and my favorite national Park Lodge
>>> burn down.
>>> >
>>> >
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