[FRIAM] Limits to Growth
steve smith
sasmyth at swcp.com
Sun Jun 1 15:17:08 EDT 2025
As we know, I'm of the school of thought that (techno) Utopian and
Dystopian visions are two sides of the same coin:
<peak-oil>
I think peak oil (fossil-fuels) is a real thing, now matter how much
we slide the timescale with innovative ways to suck harder or deeper
and burn it more efficiently... and in particular the side-effect of
saturating the atmo(bio)sphere with carbon particulates, polymers
(e.g. microplastics) and molecules (COn, CH4, etc) and the myriad
attendant not-very-healthy-to-most-life chloroflouros and
Nitrous-this-n-thats and ... on and on. We (in our technofuturist
way) pretend we have maxwell demons or geni-rebottlers or
pandora-box-refillers on the drawing boards which will do their work
faster than entropy and in the particular techno-industrial
concentrated-energy-fueled version thereof.
Fossil fuels made us into an incredibly energy-hungry/wasteful
society... I'm a fan of Switzerland's (nominal) 2000W society
(aspiration), although the human *animal's* basal metabolic rate is
<100W avg and peaks at 200-300W (burst performance athlete). The
the nominal consumption for the western world is EU (5k) and US
(10k) of which a big part from the infrastructure and other "hidden"
sources like transport of food/goods across the planet for our
appetite and convenience. The "global south" is considered to make
it on 500-1500W. 8B humans at "subsistence" would demand 8tW
continuous and at US rates, 80tW continuous.
I haven't resolved this against DaveW's numbers but I take his to be
order-of-magnitude accurate on principle. As we add supersonic and
orbital-vacation transport I suspect we might jack that another
10X... not to (even) mention power-hungry crypto/AI demands? GPT
(ironic no?) helped me guestimate 40w/user (engaged) continuous
*currently*. A significant fraction of a carbon-frugal "budget" and
a measurable plus-up on our gluttonous US (and even EU or CH) versions?
</peak-oil>
<EV-enthusiasm>
I'm a big fan/early adopter (tinkerer really) of "electric vehicles"
and renewable energy, but the numbers just don't work. I was
hypermiling my Honda CRX (fit my oversized frame like a slipper or
roller skate) long before there were viable production electrics or
hybrids. I had the back half of a donor CRX ready to receive the
rear differential of a miata or rx7 (same stance, similar suspension
mounts) with a 90's brushless DC motor as well as a pair of VW
cabriolets (running but one lame) as well for the same conception
(early 2000s) when I scored a year1/gen1 Honda Insight (and a friend
spun the CRX out in the rain)... so I gave up on my hypermiling
(70mpg RT to Los Alamos, power up, coast home) for thoughtful
Insight-driving. All three of these models were order 2k lbs.
Most vehicles are/were 3k-6klbs.
Along came the Chevy Volt (2011) and in 2016 I picked one up which
had been used up... or at least the hybrid battery (at 166k
miles). A used (95k mile) battery and a lot of tech work and it
was back to full function. The VWs never broke 40mpg hypermiling,
the CRX clocked 70mpg in ideal conditions, the Insight topped
50-55mpg with careful driving (hard to hypermile a CVT), and with
the PHEV nature of the volt I can still pull >70mpg if I ignore the
input from the grid. The old battery is offering about 10kWh of
capacity for a homestead scale PV I'm assembling from $.10/W used
solar panels mainly to buffer for the PHEV charging. Unfortunately
the replacement Volt battery is finally getting lame and replacement
is such a huge effort this 15 year old vehicle will go the way of
many other 200k mile plus vehicles. I've backfilled with a low(er)
mileage 2014 Ford C-Max PHEV with only about 10 miles (compared to
new-30 in the volt) PHEV which I'm getting roughly the same
effective MPG (still ignoring the grid input). I'm looking for a
Gen2 Volt which had 50mile EV-only range (otherwise very similar to
Gen1) as I might move *all* my semi-local miles to Electric (and
supply them with used PV staged through the upcycled EV batteries?).
FWIW, the anti-EV stories about the extra weight yielding
accelerated brake/tire wear is specious in my experience. My
*driving habits* in an EV (or hypermiled conventional/hybrid)
obviate excess tire wear (no spinouts, no
uber-accelleration/braking) and even a thoughtless driver likely
gets more from regenerative braking than any excess weight
abuse... I also claim that being MPG/consumption attunes my
driving habits to fewer/shorter/slower trips. I have owned a few
gas-guzzling vehicles in my life, including one I commuted too far
in for a while... the 32 gallon tank convolved with peaking gas
prices and a 60 mile RT commute that year should have warned me
off... but instead I just closed my eyes and ran my plastic through
the card reader 1.5 times per week... my housing cost differential
paid the bill but without regard to the planet. I did give over to
a carpool in a 30mpg vehicle (shared 3 ways) for a while which
really beat the 15mpg 1-person I was doing otherwise. I went
through a LOT more tire rubber and brake pads in that context than I
ever did in years of hybrid/EV ownership. Did I say specious? Or
at least apples-orangatans?
</EV-enthusiasm>
<Alt/Transport ideation>
I also have my 750W (foldable) eBike which is (currently)
impractical to me (closest services 10 miles of 4 lane) for anything
but recreation/exercise and a 300W lower-body exoskeleton, each of
which has much better "mpg" in principle (esp eBike) when hybridized
with human calorie-to-kinetic conversion. I've a friend (10 years
my senior) whose e-Recumbent-trike with similar specs is his primary
mode of utility transport (under 20 miles RT).
All that said, I don't think electromotifying 4-6klb hunks of steel
and glass with environmental control suitable for 0F-120F comfort
for 4+ people while traveling at 60+mph and making 0-60
accellerations in under 6 seconds is really a viable strategy for
the 8B folks on the planet we want to sell them to. Esp with a
useful lifetime of <15 years?(planned obselescence aside?). Maybe
robo-taxi/rideshare versions in the context of (mostly) walkable
cities (nod to JennyQ) and public transport and general
local/regionalism is (semi) viable.
</Alt-Transport ideation>
<Local/Regionalism>
I've got strawberry plants making me (from compost and sunlight)
fewer berries in a season than I just bought at the grocery imported
from MX for <$3 (on sale)... and my while I wait for my 3-sister's
plantings to produce a few months of carbs/protein at-best the
modern fossil-fuel/pollution global marketplace offers me the same
for probably several tens of dollars? As a seed-saving, composter
with a well (that could be pumped by solar but isn't) my impact on
planetary boundaries could be nil to positive... but it is hard to
scale this up even for myself, much less proselytize and/or support
my neighbors in matching me. I cut Jeff Bezos off from my direct
support (via Amazon purchases) when he aligned himself with the
other TechBros aligning with the Orange Tyrant, so I may well have
reduced my manufacturing/transport appetite/consumption a little
(small amounts of that appetite moved to local traditional
store-forward versions as well as direct-mail purchases from
non-Amazon/big-box distributors).
</Local-Regionalism>
<TechnoUtopianism>
I am a reformed technoUtopian... I grew up on "good old-fashioned
future" science fiction (starting with scientific romances from the
early industrial age) and studied and practiced my way into a
science education and a technical career/lifestyle and wanted to
believe for the longest time that we could always kick the can down
the road a little harder/smarter/further each time and/or just
"drive faster". And we are doing that somewhat effectively *still*,
but in my many decades I've got more time glancing in the rear-view
mirror to see the smoking wreckage behind us, as well as over the
horizon to see how many of the negative consequences of our actions
land on other folks who never came close to enjoying the benefits of
that "progress". I guess that means this erstwhile libertarian has
become a "self-loathing liberal".
Or a convert to the Buddhist ideal of "Skillful Means"?
</TechnoUtopianism>
On 6/1/25 10:10 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>
> I think you are underestimating how much progress has been made with
> batteries in recent years.
> California has large solar resources, and it is not unusual that
> during the day the whole grid is powered by solar. Here is from last
> week. Note the huge surge of battery usage in the evening. Tens of
> gigawatts of generation power are planned for offshore wind too.
>
> Generally, though, I agree that much of the planet is completely
> addicted to oil, and there’s no technology that will yet handle air
> travel. Hydrogen might work, but it will take time.
>
> The way to break an addiction is to have the addict hit rock bottom.
>
> There need to be some scary climate events. The prices for energy
> need to increase before people change their ways. Redirecting energy
> into AI is one way to bring that to fruition.
>
> A chart of different colors Description automatically generated
>
> *From: *Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of Prof David West
> <profwest at fastmail.fm>
> *Date: *Sunday, June 1, 2025 at 8:27 AM
> *To: *friam at redfish.com <friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] Limits to Growth
>
> Unfortunately, it is almost certain that there will never be enough
> 'fossil fuel free power stations' to supply needed energy for electric
> vehicles.
>
> Data centers, driven in large part by AI demands and cryptocurrency
> will leave nothing left over.
>
> Some numbers:
>
> Three Mile Island, which is being recommissioned to supply power to a
> couple of Microsoft Data Centers, has a capacity of 7 Terawatt
> hours(T/w/h) per year.
>
> In 2022 data centers, globally, consumed 460 TWh, by 2026 this is
> estimated to be 1,000 Twh. By 2040 projected demand is 2,000-3,000 TWh.
>
> Crypto adds 100-150 TWh in 2022, 200-300 in 2030, and 400-600 in 2040.
>
> Nuclear is unlikely to provide more than 25% of this demand.
>
> Between now and 2040, it will be necessary to build 100 TMI-capacity
> nuclear plants to supply that 25%.
>
> If solar is to supply the other 75%, it will require between 66,000
> and 80,000 square miles of solar panels. (Don't know how many
> batteries, but the number is not trivial.)
>
> Wind power, for that 75%, will require 153,000 to 214,000 turbines,
> each requiring 50-60 acres of space beneath them. (Also the problem of
> batteries.)
>
> It takes 10-15 years to build a nuclear plant like TMI, have no idea
> now many dollars.
>
> Neither solar nor wind, nor combined, can be installed fast enough to
> meet this demand and, again, have no idea of cost.
>
> Nothing left over for cars, the lights in your home and office, or to
> charge your phone: unless, of course we continue to rely on oil (shale
> and fracking), natural gas, and coal.
>
> davew
>
> On Sun, Jun 1, 2025, at 6:24 AM, Pieter Steenekamp wrote:
>
> This is why I’m so excited about electric vehicles—I feel like a
> kid waiting for Christmas! Add clean fossil fuel free power
> stations into the mix, and voilà: abundant clean energy, no
> miracle inventions required. Just some clever tech and a whole lot
> of charging cables!
>
> On Sun, 1 Jun 2025 at 12:57, Jochen Fromm <jofr at cas-group.net> wrote:
>
> I believe we all have a slighty distorted view because we were
> all born long after industrialization has started and have
> seen nothing but growth. Industrialization started around 200
> years ago in Great Britain and spread shortly after to America
> and Europe. First by exploiting coal and steam engines, later
> by oil and petrol engines. Tanks, warplanes, warships as well
> as normal cars, planes and ships all consume oil.
>
> Richard Heinberg writes in his book "The End of Growth": "with
> the fossil fuel revolution of the past century and a half, we
> have seen economic growth at a speed and scale unprecedented
> in all of human history. We harnessed the energies of coal,
> oil, and natural gas to build and operate cars, trucks,
> highways, airports, airplanes, and electric grids - all the
> esential features of modern industrial society. Through the
> one-time-only process of extracting and burning hundreds of
> millions of years worth of chemically stored sunlight, we
> built what appeared (for a brief, shining moment) to be a
> perpetual-growth machine. We learned to take what was in fact
> an extraordinary situation for granted. It became normal [...]
> During the past 150 years, expanding access to cheap and
> abundar fossil fuels enabled rapid economic expansion at an
> average rate of about three percent per year; economic
> planners began to take this situain for granted. Financial
> systems internalized the expectation of growth as a promise of
> returns on investments."
>
> https://richardheinberg.com/bookshelf/the-end-of-growth-book
>
> Heinberg argues the time of cheap and abundant fossil fuels
> has come to an end. There 1.5 billion cars in the world which
> consume oil and produce CO2. Resources are depleted while
> pollution and population have reached all time highs. It is
> true that humans are innovative and ingenious, especially in
> times of scarcity, necessity and need, and we are able to find
> replacements for depleted resources, but Heinberg argues in
> his book "Peak Everything: that "in a finite world, the number
> of possible replacements is also finite". For example we were
> able to replace the whale oil by petroleum, but finding a
> replacement for petroleum is much harder.
>
> https://richardheinberg.com/bookshelf/peak-everything
>
> Without oil no army would move, traffic would cease, no
> container or cruise ship would be able to go anywhere and
> therefore international trade and tourism would stop. On the
> bright side no more plastic and CO2 pollution either.
>
> In his book "End of Growth" Heinberg mentions "transition
> towns" as a path towards a more sustainable society and an
> economy which is not based on fossil-fuels.
>
> https://donellameadows.org/archives/rob-hopkins-my-town-in-transition/
>
> French author Victor Hugo wrote 200 years ago that "the
> paradise of the rich is made out of the hell of the poor". If
> rich people start to realize this and help to find a way to a
> more sustainable, livable society it would be a start.
>
> -J.
>
> -------- Original message --------
>
> From: Pieter Steenekamp <pieters at randcontrols.co.za>
>
> Date: 5/31/25 5:46 AM (GMT+01:00)
>
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> <friam at redfish.com>
>
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Limits to Growth
>
> I’ve always loved the Simon-Ehrlich bet story—two clever guys
> betting on the future of the planet. Ehrlich lost the bet, but
> the debate still runs circles today.
>
> https://ourworldindata.org/simon-ehrlich-bet
>
> This article nails it: over the long term, prices mostly go
> down, not up, as innovation kicks in. We don’t "run out" of
> resources—we get better at using them. Scarcity shifts, but
> human creativity shifts faster.
>
> The Limits to Growth folks had good intentions, but the real
> limit seems to be how fast we can adapt and rethink. And so
> far, we’re doing okay—messy, uneven, but okay.
>
> Turns out, betting against human ingenuity is the real risky
> business.
>
> On Fri, 30 May 2025 at 21:51, steve smith <sasmyth at swcp.com>
> wrote:
>
> REC -
>
> Very timely... I did a deep dive/revisit (also met the
> seminal work in college in the 70s) into Limits to Growth
> and World3 before the Stockholm workshop on Climate (and
> other existential threats) Complexity Merle wrangled in
> 2019.... and was both impressed and disappointed.
> Rockstrom and folks were located right across the water
> from us where we met but to my knowledge didn't engage...
> their work was very complementary but did not feel as
> relevant to me then as it does now.
>
> In the following interview, I felt he began to address
> many of the things I (previously) felt were lacking in
> their framework previoiusly. It was there all the time
> I'm sure, I just didn't see it and I think they were not
> ready to talk as broadly of implications 5 years ago as
> they are now?
>
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6_3mOgvrN4
>
> Did anyone notice the swiss village inundated by debris
> and meltwater from the glacier collapse uphill? Signs of
> the times or "business as usual"?
>
> - SAS
>
> On 5/30/25 12:16 PM, Roger Critchlow wrote:
>
> https://thenextwavefutures.wordpress.com/2025/05/20/limits-to-growth-was-right-about-overshoot-and-collapse-new-data/
>
> I remember the Limits to Growth from my freshman year
> in college. Now Hackernews links to the above in
> which some people argue that we've achieved the
> predicted overshoot for the business as usual scenario
> and the subsequent collapse begins now. Enjoy the peak
> of human technological development.
>
> -- rec --
>
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