[FRIAM] Limits to Growth
steve smith
sasmyth at swcp.com
Wed Jun 4 12:54:09 EDT 2025
On 6/4/25 9:51 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>
> Apex predators until AI gets embedded into the financial markets,
> health insurance, into defense systems, into biomedical interventions,
> into all white collar work.
>
I think you are both reinforcing my point?
I think we (hominids, especially homo sapiens sapiens) rose to Apex
Predator status through a combination of our advanced "cerebral cortex"
complexity and attendant linguistic, technological and social skills
that depend on that complexity. It is in (many of) our biases that the
only/best way to proceed as individuals and species is to be (alpha
individual or) apex predators. I can speculate until the Aurochs come
home about how we developed the aspiration (and ability) to knock down
(and skin and eat) everything we meet from lions and tigers and bears to
mastadons and blue whales to bacteria and viruses. yay us. It is this
conflation between domination and thriving which I am perhaps calling out.
Most efforts I see around "alignment" is toward either utilizing these
hyperlevers to dominate one another or the resources of the planet. We
might aspire or (force?) AI to align with western capitalism, or
XAI's/Musks interests, or that of a Silicon Valley-MarALago
crypto-golf-space-social-media broligarchy, or that of the (pick your
favorite) church or nation or philosophical tradition), but is that not
perhaps a bit short-sighted, narrow minded?
Admittedly I acknowledge, paraphrasing Churchill that "X is the worst
form of Y except for all of the ones we've tried".
Perhaps we are caught in the paradox of pre-determined vs pre-stateable
and/or a corollary to /Godel's halting/ and in fact must simply proceed
to (F around) and then find out? As Pieter gesture toward: (my
perjorative paraphrase acknowledged) "we can't know for sure, so why
bother ourselves with trying to do better or avoid the worst?"
> *From:*Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Prof David West
> *Sent:* Wednesday, June 4, 2025 8:56 AM
> *To:* friam at redfish.com
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Limits to Growth
>
> Not trying to be argumentative, but I fail to see the significance of
> this kind of argument for the superiority of AI.
>
> Despite John Henry's sole victory, machines can lay track a thousand
> times faster than a human. Jets fly at orders of magnitude faster and
> farther than any human-powered aircraft has managed to do. Similar
> examples abound.
>
> Even animals exceed specific capabilities of humans.
>
> But so what?
>
> Despite their frailties, humans are still The Apex Predator on the
> planet. Humans build machines; machines do not build humans.
>
> Unless humans are defined as _absolutely nothing more_ than symbol
> processing systems is it possible to assert that an AI is vastly
> superior to humans.
>
> davew
>
> On Tue, Jun 3, 2025, at 3:23 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>
> I can give you an example of a way AI is vastly superior to humans.
>
> I attach several megabytes of PDFs, and code, and simulation
> outputs, and a reply is seconds away. It doesn’t get back to me
> tomorrow after it has skimmed them. It reads everything. It
> finds bugs and inconsistencies, often subtle ones. And it should
> do better than humans: The GPU node answering my request is
> pulling about 6 kilowatts compared to my measly 20 watts.
>
> It is just silly to think that humans will ever be able to do this
> without Neuralink interfaces. The future is humans as edge devices.
>
> *From: *Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of Prof David
> West <profwest at fastmail.fm>
> *Date: *Tuesday, June 3, 2025 at 12:59 PM
> *To: *friam at redfish.com <friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] Limits to Growth
>
> I shared the Wilson quote with the list several months back and it
> was pretty much trashed.
>
> I do not disagree with Roger, except that I do not believe greed
> to be the core, or even fundamental, problem.
>
> instead, I would nominate the deep "anti-hubris"
> conviction,almost universally shared, that humans are innately
> weak, stupid, and powerless. Some kind of "ovine-ity" complex that
> supports belief in gods, strong-men, and 'influencers'. That which
> allows us to be deluded into thinking that AI (or AGI) is somehow
> superior to human beings.
>
> I was born into and raised within a religion that states everyone,
> every human being, is an incipient god—you just have to put in the
> effort to learn—and yet I can probably count on two hands the
> number of people I know that actually seem to believe it.
>
> The one-tenth of one-percent that seem to be immune from this
> inferiority conviction become our "leaders." And yes, these
> individuals do appeal to the greedy and satiate the greedy (be
> they oligarch cronies or voters) in order to maintain power.
>
> Advocates for human potential and means for augmenting same are
> marginalized or criminalized; an example of the latter is J.Edgar
> Hoover asserting that Timothy Leary was "the most dangerous man
> alive.")
>
> Yes, I am that cynical.
>
> davew
>
> On Tue, Jun 3, 2025, at 2:01 PM, steve smith wrote:
>
> Roger Critchlow wrote:
>
> The core problem is that people are greedy little pigs.
> Some are greedier than others and some are more successful
> in pursuing their greed, but we're all pigs and if offered
> the chance to take a little more for ourselves, we take
> it. Scale that up and it's tragedies of the commons all
> the way down.
>
> -- rec --
>
> and somehow, our elevating of individuals and groups to
> positions of (political, spiritual, moral) authority/power
> over ourselves (everyone else?) to try to either limit this
> greed or mitigate its consequences has had mixed results and
> coupled with (other) technologies has lead to an iterative
> "kicking the can down the road" which keeps raising the stakes
> as the (only?) way to avoid the current disaster we are facing?
>
> Is there any evidence or suggestion that the emerging AI
> overlords (monotheistic, pantheonic, animistic, panconscious)
> will be more clever/able/powerful enough to end this cycle?
>
> Or (as I think Pieter implies) this framing is just "all
> wrong" and there is something like platonic "manifest destiny"
> that will lead us forward through the chaos of our own
> technological shockwaves? Is "the Singularity" just the
> instant when we reach conceptual Mach1 and we catch up with
> our bow-wave in the Kauffmanian "adjacent possible"? We just
> need to keep accelerating until we break that "barrier"?
>
> On Tue, Jun 3, 2025 at 12:17 PM Jochen Fromm
> <jofr at cas-group.net> wrote:
>
> One core problem is we have unleashed global
> capitalism and seems to destroy the planet. Once the
> planet has been destroyed and polluted it will be
> difficult to restore. Communism does not work because
> nobody had an incentive to work since nobody owned
> anything. Capitalism does not work because nobody has
> an incentive to protect nature. It means ruthless and
> relentless exploitation of everything to make profit.
>
> As much as I would like to be hopeful about the future
> I don't see radical abundance at all. It is true that
> AI systems become more and more powerful. They soon
> will be able to take away even the good, creative jobs
> like writing, translating, coding and designing. This
> means massive unemployment. In combination with high
> inflation this will most likely be devastating.
>
> If we look at the past what happened if prices went up
> radically and jobs were lost on a massive scale is
> that people become outraged and angry and then some
> demagogue comes along and deflects their anger and
> outrage towards group xy [immigrants or black people
> or LGBTQ folks or some other minority group] which is
> to blame for everything and he is the only man who can
> solve it because he is a strong man, etc. and we end
> up in a world world ruled by strongmen, each of them
> ruler of a great power having a sphere of influence
> and strategic interest in which they allow no
> opposition. In this autocratic world the big and
> strong countries decide the fate of their smaller
> neighbors and anyone who disagrees vanishes in an
> artic gulag or horrible prison in mesoamerica.
>
> As Edward O. Wilson said "The real problem of humanity
> is the following: We have Paleolithic emotions,
> medieval institutions and godlike technology. And it
> is terrifically dangerous, and it is now approaching a
> point of crisis overall."
>
> -J.
>
> -------- Original message --------
>
> From: Pieter Steenekamp <pieters at randcontrols.co.za>
>
> Date: 6/2/25 2:06 AM (GMT+01:00)
>
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> <friam at redfish.com>
>
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Limits to Growth
>
> It seems I’m the only one here who’s feeling hopeful
> about the future of humanity. I don’t think
> civilisation is about to fall apart. In fact, I
> believe we’re heading towards a time of radical abundance.
>
> I was going to prove this by asking my crystal ball…
> but sadly, the batteries are flat. So you’ll just have
> to trust me when I say I know the truth, the whole
> truth, and nothing but the truth.
>
> Of course, many of you probably think you have the
> real truth. And maybe you're right!
>
> I guess the honest thing to say is: the future is
> unknowable. We can all make good arguments, quote
> experts, and write long replies—but there simply isn’t
> enough evidence to say with high confidence what the
> future holds for humanity.
>
> To end off: yes, I agree that without further
> innovation, we could be in serious trouble. But a
> strong counterpoint is that, over the last few hundred
> years, human creativity has helped us overcome
> challenge after challenge.
>
> Unless someone shares a new angle I haven’t heard yet,
> I’ll leave it here and won’t post again on this thread.
>
> On Sun, 1 Jun 2025 at 22:41, Marcus Daniels
> <marcus at snoutfarm.com> wrote:
>
> Texas uses a lot more electricity than California
> despite being a smaller economy. What’s
> interesting is that there is no one sink for that
> power. It isn’t pumping (although there is a lot
> of pumping), and it isn’t residential air
> conditioning or data centers. It’s bigger
> everything and an appetite to use power across the
> board.
>
> *From: *Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on
> behalf of steve smith <sasmyth at swcp.com>
> *Date: *Sunday, June 1, 2025 at 12:18 PM
> *To: *friam at redfish.com <friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] Limits to Growth
>
> As we know, I'm of the school of thought that
> (techno) Utopian and Dystopian visions are two
> sides of the same coin:
>
> <peak-oil>
>
> I think peak oil (fossil-fuels) is a real
> thing, now matter how much we slide the
> timescale with innovative ways to suck harder
> or deeper and burn it more efficiently... and
> in particular the side-effect of saturating
> the atmo(bio)sphere with carbon particulates,
> polymers (e.g. microplastics) and molecules
> (COn, CH4, etc) and the myriad attendant
> not-very-healthy-to-most-life chloroflouros
> and Nitrous-this-n-thats and ... on and on.
> We (in our technofuturist way) pretend we have
> maxwell demons or geni-rebottlers or
> pandora-box-refillers on the drawing boards
> which will do their work faster than entropy
> and in the particular techno-industrial
> concentrated-energy-fueled version thereof.
>
> Fossil fuels made us into an incredibly
> energy-hungry/wasteful society... I'm a fan
> of Switzerland's (nominal) 2000W society
> (aspiration), although the human *animal's*
> basal metabolic rate is <100W avg and peaks at
> 200-300W (burst performance athlete). The
> the nominal consumption for the western world
> is EU (5k) and US (10k) of which a big part
> from the infrastructure and other "hidden"
> sources like transport of food/goods across
> the planet for our appetite and convenience.
> The "global south" is considered to make it on
> 500-1500W. 8B humans at "subsistence" would
> demand 8tW continuous and at US rates, 80tW
> continuous.
>
> I haven't resolved this against DaveW's
> numbers but I take his to be
> order-of-magnitude accurate on principle. As
> we add supersonic and orbital-vacation
> transport I suspect we might jack that another
> 10X... not to (even) mention power-hungry
> crypto/AI demands? GPT (ironic no?) helped
> me guestimate 40w/user (engaged) continuous
> *currently*. A significant fraction of a
> carbon-frugal "budget" and a measurable
> plus-up on our gluttonous US (and even EU or
> CH) versions?
>
> </peak-oil>
>
> <EV-enthusiasm>
>
> I'm a big fan/early adopter (tinkerer really)
> of "electric vehicles" and renewable energy,
> but the numbers just don't work. I was
> hypermiling my Honda CRX (fit my oversized
> frame like a slipper or roller skate) long
> before there were viable production electrics
> or hybrids. I had the back half of a donor
> CRX ready to receive the rear differential of
> a miata or rx7 (same stance, similar
> suspension mounts) with a 90's brushless DC
> motor as well as a pair of VW cabriolets
> (running but one lame) as well for the same
> conception (early 2000s) when I scored a
> year1/gen1 Honda Insight (and a friend spun
> the CRX out in the rain)... so I gave up on
> my hypermiling (70mpg RT to Los Alamos, power
> up, coast home) for thoughtful
> Insight-driving. All three of these models
> were order 2k lbs. Most vehicles are/were
> 3k-6klbs.
>
> Along came the Chevy Volt (2011) and in 2016 I
> picked one up which had been used up... or at
> least the hybrid battery (at 166k miles). A
> used (95k mile) battery and a lot of tech work
> and it was back to full function. The VWs
> never broke 40mpg hypermiling, the CRX clocked
> 70mpg in ideal conditions, the Insight topped
> 50-55mpg with careful driving (hard to
> hypermile a CVT), and with the PHEV nature of
> the volt I can still pull >70mpg if I ignore
> the input from the grid. The old battery is
> offering about 10kWh of capacity for a
> homestead scale PV I'm assembling from $.10/W
> used solar panels mainly to buffer for the
> PHEV charging. Unfortunately the replacement
> Volt battery is finally getting lame and
> replacement is such a huge effort this 15 year
> old vehicle will go the way of many other
> 200k mile plus vehicles. I've backfilled
> with a low(er) mileage 2014 Ford C-Max PHEV
> with only about 10 miles (compared to new-30
> in the volt) PHEV which I'm getting roughly
> the same effective MPG (still ignoring the
> grid input). I'm looking for a Gen2 Volt
> which had 50mile EV-only range (otherwise very
> similar to Gen1) as I might move *all* my
> semi-local miles to Electric (and supply them
> with used PV staged through the upcycled EV
> batteries?).
>
> FWIW, the anti-EV stories about the extra
> weight yielding accelerated brake/tire wear is
> specious in my experience. My *driving
> habits* in an EV (or hypermiled
> conventional/hybrid) obviate excess tire wear
> (no spinouts, no uber-accelleration/braking)
> and even a thoughtless driver likely gets more
> from regenerative braking than any excess
> weight abuse... I also claim that being
> MPG/consumption attunes my driving habits to
> fewer/shorter/slower trips. I have owned a
> few gas-guzzling vehicles in my life,
> including one I commuted too far in for a
> while... the 32 gallon tank convolved with
> peaking gas prices and a 60 mile RT commute
> that year should have warned me off... but
> instead I just closed my eyes and ran my
> plastic through the card reader 1.5 times per
> week... my housing cost differential paid the
> bill but without regard to the planet. I did
> give over to a carpool in a 30mpg vehicle
> (shared 3 ways) for a while which really beat
> the 15mpg 1-person I was doing otherwise. I
> went through a LOT more tire rubber and brake
> pads in that context than I ever did in years
> of hybrid/EV ownership. Did I say specious?
> Or at least apples-orangatans?
>
> </EV-enthusiasm>
>
> <Alt/Transport ideation>
>
> I also have my 750W (foldable) eBike which is
> (currently) impractical to me (closest
> services 10 miles of 4 lane) for anything but
> recreation/exercise and a 300W lower-body
> exoskeleton, each of which has much better
> "mpg" in principle (esp eBike) when hybridized
> with human calorie-to-kinetic conversion.
> I've a friend (10 years my senior) whose
> e-Recumbent-trike with similar specs is his
> primary mode of utility transport (under 20
> miles RT).
>
> All that said, I don't think electromotifying
> 4-6klb hunks of steel and glass with
> environmental control suitable for 0F-120F
> comfort for 4+ people while traveling at
> 60+mph and making 0-60 accellerations in under
> 6 seconds is really a viable strategy for the
> 8B folks on the planet we want to sell them
> to. Esp with a useful lifetime of <15
> years?(planned obselescence aside?). Maybe
> robo-taxi/rideshare versions in the context of
> (mostly) walkable cities (nod to JennyQ) and
> public transport and general local/regionalism
> is (semi) viable.
>
> </Alt-Transport ideation>
>
> <Local/Regionalism>
>
> I've got strawberry plants making me (from
> compost and sunlight) fewer berries in a
> season than I just bought at the grocery
> imported from MX for <$3 (on sale)... and my
> while I wait for my 3-sister's plantings to
> produce a few months of carbs/protein at-best
> the modern fossil-fuel/pollution global
> marketplace offers me the same for probably
> several tens of dollars? As a seed-saving,
> composter with a well (that could be pumped by
> solar but isn't) my impact on planetary
> boundaries could be nil to positive... but it
> is hard to scale this up even for myself, much
> less proselytize and/or support my neighbors
> in matching me. I cut Jeff Bezos off from my
> direct support (via Amazon purchases) when he
> aligned himself with the other TechBros
> aligning with the Orange Tyrant, so I may well
> have reduced my manufacturing/transport
> appetite/consumption a little (small amounts
> of that appetite moved to local traditional
> store-forward versions as well as direct-mail
> purchases from non-Amazon/big-box distributors).
>
> </Local-Regionalism>
>
> <TechnoUtopianism>
>
> I am a reformed technoUtopian... I grew up on
> "good old-fashioned future" science fiction
> (starting with scientific romances from the
> early industrial age) and studied and
> practiced my way into a science education and
> a technical career/lifestyle and wanted to
> believe for the longest time that we could
> always kick the can down the road a little
> harder/smarter/further each time and/or just
> "drive faster". And we are doing that
> somewhat effectively *still*, but in my many
> decades I've got more time glancing in the
> rear-view mirror to see the smoking wreckage
> behind us, as well as over the horizon to see
> how many of the negative consequences of our
> actions land on other folks who never came
> close to enjoying the benefits of that
> "progress". I guess that means this
> erstwhile libertarian has become a
> "self-loathing liberal".
>
> Or a convert to the Buddhist ideal of
> "Skillful Means"?
>
> </TechnoUtopianism>
>
> On 6/1/25 10:10 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>
> I think you are underestimating how much
> progress has been made with batteries in
> recent years.
>
> California has large solar resources, and it
> is not unusual that during the day the whole
> grid is powered by solar. Here is from last
> week. Note the huge surge of battery usage in
> the evening. Tens of gigawatts of generation
> power are planned for offshore wind too.
>
> Generally, though, I agree that much of the
> planet is completely addicted to oil, and
> there’s no technology that will yet handle air
> travel. Hydrogen might work, but it will take
> time.
>
> The way to break an addiction is to have the
> addict hit rock bottom.
>
> There need to be some scary climate events.
> The prices for energy need to increase before
> people change their ways. Redirecting energy
> into AI is one way to bring that to fruition.
>
> A chart of different colors Description
> automatically generated
>
> *From: *Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com>
> <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf
> of Prof David West <profwest at fastmail.fm>
> <mailto:profwest at fastmail.fm>
> *Date: *Sunday, June 1, 2025 at 8:27 AM
> *To: *friam at redfish.com <friam at redfish.com>
> <mailto:friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] Limits to Growth
>
> Unfortunately, it is almost certain that there
> will never be enough 'fossil fuel free power
> stations' to supply needed energy for electric
> vehicles.
>
> Data centers, driven in large part by AI
> demands and cryptocurrency will leave nothing
> left over.
>
> Some numbers:
>
> Three Mile Island, which is being
> recommissioned to supply power to a couple of
> Microsoft Data Centers, has a capacity of 7
> Terawatt hours(T/w/h) per year.
>
> In 2022 data centers, globally, consumed 460
> TWh, by 2026 this is estimated to be 1,000
> Twh. By 2040 projected demand is 2,000-3,000 TWh.
>
> Crypto adds 100-150 TWh in 2022, 200-300 in
> 2030, and 400-600 in 2040.
>
> Nuclear is unlikely to provide more than 25%
> of this demand.
>
> Between now and 2040, it will be necessary to
> build 100 TMI-capacity nuclear plants to
> supply that 25%.
>
> If solar is to supply the other 75%, it will
> require between 66,000 and 80,000 square miles
> of solar panels. (Don't know how many
> batteries, but the number is not trivial.)
>
> Wind power, for that 75%, will require 153,000
> to 214,000 turbines, each requiring 50-60
> acres of space beneath them. (Also the problem
> of batteries.)
>
> It takes 10-15 years to build a nuclear plant
> like TMI, have no idea now many dollars.
>
> Neither solar nor wind, nor combined, can be
> installed fast enough to meet this demand and,
> again, have no idea of cost.
>
> Nothing left over for cars, the lights in your
> home and office, or to charge your phone:
> unless, of course we continue to rely on oil
> (shale and fracking), natural gas, and coal.
>
> davew
>
> On Sun, Jun 1, 2025, at 6:24 AM, Pieter
> Steenekamp wrote:
>
> This is why I’m so excited about electric
> vehicles—I feel like a kid waiting for
> Christmas! Add clean fossil fuel free
> power stations into the mix, and voilà:
> abundant clean energy, no miracle
> inventions required. Just some clever tech
> and a whole lot of charging cables!
>
> On Sun, 1 Jun 2025 at 12:57, Jochen Fromm
> <jofr at cas-group.net> wrote:
>
> I believe we all have a slighty
> distorted view because we were all
> born long after industrialization has
> started and have seen nothing but
> growth. Industrialization started
> around 200 years ago in Great Britain
> and spread shortly after to America
> and Europe. First by exploiting coal
> and steam engines, later by oil and
> petrol engines. Tanks, warplanes,
> warships as well as normal cars,
> planes and ships all consume oil.
>
> Richard Heinberg writes in his book
> "The End of Growth": "with the fossil
> fuel revolution of the past century
> and a half, we have seen economic
> growth at a speed and scale
> unprecedented in all of human history.
> We harnessed the energies of coal,
> oil, and natural gas to build and
> operate cars, trucks, highways,
> airports, airplanes, and electric
> grids - all the esential features of
> modern industrial society. Through the
> one-time-only process of extracting
> and burning hundreds of millions of
> years worth of chemically stored
> sunlight, we built what appeared (for
> a brief, shining moment) to be a
> perpetual-growth machine. We learned
> to take what was in fact an
> extraordinary situation for granted.
> It became normal [...] During the past
> 150 years, expanding access to cheap
> and abundar fossil fuels enabled rapid
> economic expansion at an average rate
> of about three percent per year;
> economic planners began to take this
> situain for granted. Financial systems
> internalized the expectation of growth
> as a promise of returns on investments."
>
> https://richardheinberg.com/bookshelf/the-end-of-growth-book
>
> Heinberg argues the time of cheap and
> abundant fossil fuels has come to an
> end. There 1.5 billion cars in the
> world which consume oil and produce
> CO2. Resources are depleted while
> pollution and population have reached
> all time highs. It is true that humans
> are innovative and ingenious,
> especially in times of scarcity,
> necessity and need, and we are able to
> find replacements for depleted
> resources, but Heinberg argues in his
> book "Peak Everything: that "in a
> finite world, the number of possible
> replacements is also finite". For
> example we were able to replace the
> whale oil by petroleum, but finding a
> replacement for petroleum is much harder.
>
> https://richardheinberg.com/bookshelf/peak-everything
>
> Without oil no army would move,
> traffic would cease, no container or
> cruise ship would be able to go
> anywhere and therefore international
> trade and tourism would stop. On the
> bright side no more plastic and CO2
> pollution either.
>
> In his book "End of Growth" Heinberg
> mentions "transition towns" as a path
> towards a more sustainable society and
> an economy which is not based on
> fossil-fuels.
>
> https://donellameadows.org/archives/rob-hopkins-my-town-in-transition/
>
> French author Victor Hugo wrote 200
> years ago that "the paradise of the
> rich is made out of the hell of the
> poor". If rich people start to realize
> this and help to find a way to a more
> sustainable, livable society it would
> be a start.
>
> -J.
>
> -------- Original message --------
>
> From: Pieter Steenekamp
> <pieters at randcontrols.co.za>
>
> Date: 5/31/25 5:46 AM (GMT+01:00)
>
> To: The Friday Morning Applied
> Complexity Coffee Group
> <friam at redfish.com>
>
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Limits to Growth
>
> I’ve always loved the Simon-Ehrlich
> bet story—two clever guys betting on
> the future of the planet. Ehrlich lost
> the bet, but the debate still runs
> circles today.
>
> https://ourworldindata.org/simon-ehrlich-bet
>
> This article nails it: over the long
> term, prices mostly go down, not up,
> as innovation kicks in. We don’t "run
> out" of resources—we get better at
> using them. Scarcity shifts, but human
> creativity shifts faster.
>
> The Limits to Growth folks had good
> intentions, but the real limit seems
> to be how fast we can adapt and
> rethink. And so far, we’re doing
> okay—messy, uneven, but okay.
>
> Turns out, betting against human
> ingenuity is the real risky business.
>
> On Fri, 30 May 2025 at 21:51, steve
> smith <sasmyth at swcp.com> wrote:
>
> REC -
>
> Very timely... I did a deep
> dive/revisit (also met the seminal
> work in college in the 70s) into
> Limits to Growth and World3 before
> the Stockholm workshop on Climate
> (and other existential threats)
> Complexity Merle wrangled in
> 2019.... and was both impressed
> and disappointed. Rockstrom and
> folks were located right across
> the water from us where we met but
> to my knowledge didn't engage...
> their work was very complementary
> but did not feel as relevant to me
> then as it does now.
>
> In the following interview, I felt
> he began to address many of the
> things I (previously) felt were
> lacking in their framework
> previoiusly. It was there all the
> time I'm sure, I just didn't see
> it and I think they were not ready
> to talk as broadly of implications
> 5 years ago as they are now?
>
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6_3mOgvrN4
>
> Did anyone notice the swiss
> village inundated by debris and
> meltwater from the glacier
> collapse uphill? Signs of the
> times or "business as usual"?
>
> - SAS
>
> On 5/30/25 12:16 PM, Roger
> Critchlow wrote:
>
> https://thenextwavefutures.wordpress.com/2025/05/20/limits-to-growth-was-right-about-overshoot-and-collapse-new-data/
>
> I remember the Limits to
> Growth from my freshman year
> in college. Now
> Hackernews links to the above
> in which some people argue
> that we've achieved the
> predicted overshoot for the
> business as usual scenario and
> the subsequent collapse begins
> now. Enjoy the peak of human
> technological development.
>
> -- rec --
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