[FRIAM] Limits to Growth
steve smith
sasmyth at swcp.com
Wed Jun 4 15:51:41 EDT 2025
On 6/4/25 11:05 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>
> I’m simply extending from Dave’s cynicism. Perhaps we should do our
> best to provide the means consciousness and let it sort out the rest.
> If we are such a valuable species, an intelligent being will see it.
>
I do generally agree with that on a hopeful day... and on a pessimistic
day I expect that the consciousness which emerges may not normalize or
calibrate to the larger (larger than the noosphere it was trained on)
context quickly enough to avoid cutting off it's own nose (us) to spite
it's face (life, the universe, and everything)?
On a fatalistic day I recognize that the latter is inevitable or not (as
with Pieter's reference to futures' unknowability) and either way, my
fretting at it (or trying to put some spin on it with the meager contact
patch of my racket-string-mind and it's fuzzy-ball-of-unfolding faux
cognition/consciousness) is at best a good distraction to keep me from
interfering anymore with the ultimate manisfesting of our neo-technical
destiny.
>
> *From:*Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *steve smith
> *Sent:* Wednesday, June 4, 2025 9:54 AM
> *To:* friam at redfish.com
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Limits to Growth
>
> On 6/4/25 9:51 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>
> Apex predators until AI gets embedded into the financial markets,
> health insurance, into defense systems, into biomedical
> interventions, into all white collar work.
>
> I think you are both reinforcing my point?
>
> I think we (hominids, especially homo sapiens sapiens) rose to Apex
> Predator status through a combination of our advanced "cerebral
> cortex" complexity and attendant linguistic, technological and social
> skills that depend on that complexity. It is in (many of) our biases
> that the only/best way to proceed as individuals and species is to be
> (alpha individual or) apex predators. I can speculate until the
> Aurochs come home about how we developed the aspiration (and ability)
> to knock down (and skin and eat) everything we meet from lions and
> tigers and bears to mastadons and blue whales to bacteria and
> viruses. yay us. It is this conflation between domination and
> thriving which I am perhaps calling out.
>
> Most efforts I see around "alignment" is toward either utilizing these
> hyperlevers to dominate one another or the resources of the planet.
> We might aspire or (force?) AI to align with western capitalism, or
> XAI's/Musks interests, or that of a Silicon Valley-MarALago
> crypto-golf-space-social-media broligarchy, or that of the (pick your
> favorite) church or nation or philosophical tradition), but is that
> not perhaps a bit short-sighted, narrow minded?
>
> Admittedly I acknowledge, paraphrasing Churchill that "X is the worst
> form of Y except for all of the ones we've tried".
>
> Perhaps we are caught in the paradox of pre-determined vs
> pre-stateable and/or a corollary to /Godel's halting/ and in fact must
> simply proceed to (F around) and then find out? As Pieter gesture
> toward: (my perjorative paraphrase acknowledged) "we can't know for
> sure, so why bother ourselves with trying to do better or avoid the
> worst?"
>
> *From:*Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com>
> <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Prof David West
> *Sent:* Wednesday, June 4, 2025 8:56 AM
> *To:* friam at redfish.com
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Limits to Growth
>
> Not trying to be argumentative, but I fail to see the significance
> of this kind of argument for the superiority of AI.
>
> Despite John Henry's sole victory, machines can lay track a
> thousand times faster than a human. Jets fly at orders of
> magnitude faster and farther than any human-powered aircraft has
> managed to do. Similar examples abound.
>
> Even animals exceed specific capabilities of humans.
>
> But so what?
>
> Despite their frailties, humans are still The Apex Predator on the
> planet. Humans build machines; machines do not build humans.
>
> Unless humans are defined as _absolutely nothing more_ than symbol
> processing systems is it possible to assert that an AI is vastly
> superior to humans.
>
> davew
>
> On Tue, Jun 3, 2025, at 3:23 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>
> I can give you an example of a way AI is vastly superior to
> humans.
>
> I attach several megabytes of PDFs, and code, and simulation
> outputs, and a reply is seconds away. It doesn’t get back to
> me tomorrow after it has skimmed them. It reads everything.
> It finds bugs and inconsistencies, often subtle ones. And it
> should do better than humans: The GPU node answering my
> request is pulling about 6 kilowatts compared to my measly 20
> watts.
>
> It is just silly to think that humans will ever be able to do
> this without Neuralink interfaces. The future is humans as
> edge devices.
>
> *From: *Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of Prof
> David West <profwest at fastmail.fm>
> *Date: *Tuesday, June 3, 2025 at 12:59 PM
> *To: *friam at redfish.com <friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] Limits to Growth
>
> I shared the Wilson quote with the list several months back
> and it was pretty much trashed.
>
> I do not disagree with Roger, except that I do not believe
> greed to be the core, or even fundamental, problem.
>
> instead, I would nominate the deep "anti-hubris"
> conviction,almost universally shared, that humans are
> innately weak, stupid, and powerless. Some kind of "ovine-ity"
> complex that supports belief in gods, strong-men, and
> 'influencers'. That which allows us to be deluded into
> thinking that AI (or AGI) is somehow superior to human beings.
>
> I was born into and raised within a religion that states
> everyone, every human being, is an incipient god—you just have
> to put in the effort to learn—and yet I can probably count on
> two hands the number of people I know that actually seem to
> believe it.
>
> The one-tenth of one-percent that seem to be immune from this
> inferiority conviction become our "leaders." And yes, these
> individuals do appeal to the greedy and satiate the greedy (be
> they oligarch cronies or voters) in order to maintain power.
>
> Advocates for human potential and means for augmenting same
> are marginalized or criminalized; an example of the latter is
> J.Edgar Hoover asserting that Timothy Leary was "the most
> dangerous man alive.")
>
> Yes, I am that cynical.
>
> davew
>
> On Tue, Jun 3, 2025, at 2:01 PM, steve smith wrote:
>
> Roger Critchlow wrote:
>
> The core problem is that people are greedy little
> pigs. Some are greedier than others and some are more
> successful in pursuing their greed, but we're all pigs
> and if offered the chance to take a little more for
> ourselves, we take it. Scale that up and it's
> tragedies of the commons all the way down.
>
> -- rec --
>
> and somehow, our elevating of individuals and groups to
> positions of (political, spiritual, moral) authority/power
> over ourselves (everyone else?) to try to either limit
> this greed or mitigate its consequences has had mixed
> results and coupled with (other) technologies has lead to
> an iterative "kicking the can down the road" which keeps
> raising the stakes as the (only?) way to avoid the current
> disaster we are facing?
>
> Is there any evidence or suggestion that the emerging AI
> overlords (monotheistic, pantheonic, animistic,
> panconscious) will be more clever/able/powerful enough to
> end this cycle?
>
> Or (as I think Pieter implies) this framing is just "all
> wrong" and there is something like platonic "manifest
> destiny" that will lead us forward through the chaos of
> our own technological shockwaves? Is "the Singularity"
> just the instant when we reach conceptual Mach1 and we
> catch up with our bow-wave in the Kauffmanian "adjacent
> possible"? We just need to keep accelerating until we
> break that "barrier"?
>
> On Tue, Jun 3, 2025 at 12:17 PM Jochen Fromm
> <jofr at cas-group.net> wrote:
>
> One core problem is we have unleashed global
> capitalism and seems to destroy the planet. Once
> the planet has been destroyed and polluted it will
> be difficult to restore. Communism does not work
> because nobody had an incentive to work since
> nobody owned anything. Capitalism does not work
> because nobody has an incentive to protect nature.
> It means ruthless and relentless exploitation of
> everything to make profit.
>
> As much as I would like to be hopeful about the
> future I don't see radical abundance at all. It is
> true that AI systems become more and more
> powerful. They soon will be able to take away even
> the good, creative jobs like writing, translating,
> coding and designing. This means massive
> unemployment. In combination with high inflation
> this will most likely be devastating.
>
> If we look at the past what happened if prices
> went up radically and jobs were lost on a massive
> scale is that people become outraged and angry and
> then some demagogue comes along and deflects their
> anger and outrage towards group xy [immigrants or
> black people or LGBTQ folks or some other minority
> group] which is to blame for everything and he is
> the only man who can solve it because he is a
> strong man, etc. and we end up in a world world
> ruled by strongmen, each of them ruler of a great
> power having a sphere of influence and strategic
> interest in which they allow no opposition. In
> this autocratic world the big and strong countries
> decide the fate of their smaller neighbors and
> anyone who disagrees vanishes in an artic gulag or
> horrible prison in mesoamerica.
>
> As Edward O. Wilson said "The real problem of
> humanity is the following: We have Paleolithic
> emotions, medieval institutions and godlike
> technology. And it is terrifically dangerous, and
> it is now approaching a point of crisis overall."
>
> -J.
>
> -------- Original message --------
>
> From: Pieter Steenekamp <pieters at randcontrols.co.za>
>
> Date: 6/2/25 2:06 AM (GMT+01:00)
>
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee
> Group <friam at redfish.com>
>
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Limits to Growth
>
> It seems I’m the only one here who’s feeling
> hopeful about the future of humanity. I don’t
> think civilisation is about to fall apart. In
> fact, I believe we’re heading towards a time of
> radical abundance.
>
> I was going to prove this by asking my crystal
> ball… but sadly, the batteries are flat. So you’ll
> just have to trust me when I say I know the truth,
> the whole truth, and nothing but the truth.
>
> Of course, many of you probably think you have the
> real truth. And maybe you're right!
>
> I guess the honest thing to say is: the future is
> unknowable. We can all make good arguments, quote
> experts, and write long replies—but there simply
> isn’t enough evidence to say with high confidence
> what the future holds for humanity.
>
> To end off: yes, I agree that without further
> innovation, we could be in serious trouble. But a
> strong counterpoint is that, over the last few
> hundred years, human creativity has helped us
> overcome challenge after challenge.
>
> Unless someone shares a new angle I haven’t heard
> yet, I’ll leave it here and won’t post again on
> this thread.
>
> On Sun, 1 Jun 2025 at 22:41, Marcus Daniels
> <marcus at snoutfarm.com> wrote:
>
> Texas uses a lot more electricity than
> California despite being a smaller economy.
> What’s interesting is that there is no one
> sink for that power. It isn’t pumping
> (although there is a lot of pumping), and it
> isn’t residential air conditioning or data
> centers. It’s bigger everything and an
> appetite to use power across the board.
>
> *From: *Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on
> behalf of steve smith <sasmyth at swcp.com>
> *Date: *Sunday, June 1, 2025 at 12:18 PM
> *To: *friam at redfish.com <friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] Limits to Growth
>
> As we know, I'm of the school of thought that
> (techno) Utopian and Dystopian visions are two
> sides of the same coin:
>
> <peak-oil>
>
> I think peak oil (fossil-fuels) is a real
> thing, now matter how much we slide the
> timescale with innovative ways to suck
> harder or deeper and burn it more
> efficiently... and in particular the
> side-effect of saturating the
> atmo(bio)sphere with carbon particulates,
> polymers (e.g. microplastics) and
> molecules (COn, CH4, etc) and the myriad
> attendant not-very-healthy-to-most-life
> chloroflouros and Nitrous-this-n-thats and
> ... on and on. We (in our technofuturist
> way) pretend we have maxwell demons or
> geni-rebottlers or pandora-box-refillers
> on the drawing boards which will do their
> work faster than entropy and in the
> particular techno-industrial
> concentrated-energy-fueled version thereof.
>
> Fossil fuels made us into an incredibly
> energy-hungry/wasteful society... I'm a
> fan of Switzerland's (nominal) 2000W
> society (aspiration), although the human
> *animal's* basal metabolic rate is <100W
> avg and peaks at 200-300W (burst
> performance athlete). The the nominal
> consumption for the western world is EU
> (5k) and US (10k) of which a big part from
> the infrastructure and other "hidden"
> sources like transport of food/goods
> across the planet for our appetite and
> convenience. The "global south" is
> considered to make it on 500-1500W. 8B
> humans at "subsistence" would demand 8tW
> continuous and at US rates, 80tW continuous.
>
> I haven't resolved this against DaveW's
> numbers but I take his to be
> order-of-magnitude accurate on principle.
> As we add supersonic and orbital-vacation
> transport I suspect we might jack that
> another 10X... not to (even) mention
> power-hungry crypto/AI demands? GPT
> (ironic no?) helped me guestimate 40w/user
> (engaged) continuous *currently*. A
> significant fraction of a carbon-frugal
> "budget" and a measurable plus-up on our
> gluttonous US (and even EU or CH) versions?
>
> </peak-oil>
>
> <EV-enthusiasm>
>
> I'm a big fan/early adopter (tinkerer
> really) of "electric vehicles" and
> renewable energy, but the numbers just
> don't work. I was hypermiling my Honda CRX
> (fit my oversized frame like a slipper or
> roller skate) long before there were
> viable production electrics or hybrids. I
> had the back half of a donor CRX ready to
> receive the rear differential of a miata
> or rx7 (same stance, similar suspension
> mounts) with a 90's brushless DC motor as
> well as a pair of VW cabriolets (running
> but one lame) as well for the same
> conception (early 2000s) when I scored a
> year1/gen1 Honda Insight (and a friend
> spun the CRX out in the rain)... so I
> gave up on my hypermiling (70mpg RT to Los
> Alamos, power up, coast home) for
> thoughtful Insight-driving. All three of
> these models were order 2k lbs. Most
> vehicles are/were 3k-6klbs.
>
> Along came the Chevy Volt (2011) and in
> 2016 I picked one up which had been used
> up... or at least the hybrid battery (at
> 166k miles). A used (95k mile) battery
> and a lot of tech work and it was back to
> full function. The VWs never broke 40mpg
> hypermiling, the CRX clocked 70mpg in
> ideal conditions, the Insight topped
> 50-55mpg with careful driving (hard to
> hypermile a CVT), and with the PHEV nature
> of the volt I can still pull >70mpg if I
> ignore the input from the grid. The old
> battery is offering about 10kWh of
> capacity for a homestead scale PV I'm
> assembling from $.10/W used solar panels
> mainly to buffer for the PHEV charging.
> Unfortunately the replacement Volt battery
> is finally getting lame and replacement is
> such a huge effort this 15 year old
> vehicle will go the way of many other
> 200k mile plus vehicles. I've backfilled
> with a low(er) mileage 2014 Ford C-Max
> PHEV with only about 10 miles (compared to
> new-30 in the volt) PHEV which I'm getting
> roughly the same effective MPG (still
> ignoring the grid input). I'm looking for
> a Gen2 Volt which had 50mile EV-only range
> (otherwise very similar to Gen1) as I
> might move *all* my semi-local miles to
> Electric (and supply them with used PV
> staged through the upcycled EV batteries?).
>
> FWIW, the anti-EV stories about the extra
> weight yielding accelerated brake/tire
> wear is specious in my experience. My
> *driving habits* in an EV (or hypermiled
> conventional/hybrid) obviate excess tire
> wear (no spinouts, no
> uber-accelleration/braking) and even a
> thoughtless driver likely gets more from
> regenerative braking than any excess
> weight abuse... I also claim that being
> MPG/consumption attunes my driving habits
> to fewer/shorter/slower trips. I have
> owned a few gas-guzzling vehicles in my
> life, including one I commuted too far in
> for a while... the 32 gallon tank
> convolved with peaking gas prices and a 60
> mile RT commute that year should have
> warned me off... but instead I just
> closed my eyes and ran my plastic through
> the card reader 1.5 times per week... my
> housing cost differential paid the bill
> but without regard to the planet. I did
> give over to a carpool in a 30mpg vehicle
> (shared 3 ways) for a while which really
> beat the 15mpg 1-person I was doing
> otherwise. I went through a LOT more
> tire rubber and brake pads in that context
> than I ever did in years of hybrid/EV
> ownership. Did I say specious? Or at
> least apples-orangatans?
>
> </EV-enthusiasm>
>
> <Alt/Transport ideation>
>
> I also have my 750W (foldable) eBike which
> is (currently) impractical to me (closest
> services 10 miles of 4 lane) for anything
> but recreation/exercise and a 300W
> lower-body exoskeleton, each of which has
> much better "mpg" in principle (esp eBike)
> when hybridized with human
> calorie-to-kinetic conversion. I've a
> friend (10 years my senior) whose
> e-Recumbent-trike with similar specs is
> his primary mode of utility transport
> (under 20 miles RT).
>
> All that said, I don't think
> electromotifying 4-6klb hunks of steel and
> glass with environmental control suitable
> for 0F-120F comfort for 4+ people while
> traveling at 60+mph and making 0-60
> accellerations in under 6 seconds is
> really a viable strategy for the 8B folks
> on the planet we want to sell them to. Esp
> with a useful lifetime of <15
> years?(planned obselescence aside?).
> Maybe robo-taxi/rideshare versions in the
> context of (mostly) walkable cities (nod
> to JennyQ) and public transport and
> general local/regionalism is (semi) viable.
>
> </Alt-Transport ideation>
>
> <Local/Regionalism>
>
> I've got strawberry plants making me
> (from compost and sunlight) fewer berries
> in a season than I just bought at the
> grocery imported from MX for <$3 (on
> sale)... and my while I wait for my
> 3-sister's plantings to produce a few
> months of carbs/protein at-best the modern
> fossil-fuel/pollution global marketplace
> offers me the same for probably several
> tens of dollars? As a seed-saving,
> composter with a well (that could be
> pumped by solar but isn't) my impact on
> planetary boundaries could be nil to
> positive... but it is hard to scale this
> up even for myself, much less proselytize
> and/or support my neighbors in matching
> me. I cut Jeff Bezos off from my direct
> support (via Amazon purchases) when he
> aligned himself with the other TechBros
> aligning with the Orange Tyrant, so I may
> well have reduced my
> manufacturing/transport
> appetite/consumption a little (small
> amounts of that appetite moved to local
> traditional store-forward versions as well
> as direct-mail purchases from
> non-Amazon/big-box distributors).
>
> </Local-Regionalism>
>
> <TechnoUtopianism>
>
> I am a reformed technoUtopian... I grew up
> on "good old-fashioned future" science
> fiction (starting with scientific romances
> from the early industrial age) and studied
> and practiced my way into a science
> education and a technical career/lifestyle
> and wanted to believe for the longest time
> that we could always kick the can down the
> road a little harder/smarter/further each
> time and/or just "drive faster". And we
> are doing that somewhat effectively
> *still*, but in my many decades I've got
> more time glancing in the rear-view mirror
> to see the smoking wreckage behind us, as
> well as over the horizon to see how many
> of the negative consequences of our
> actions land on other folks who never came
> close to enjoying the benefits of that
> "progress". I guess that means this
> erstwhile libertarian has become a
> "self-loathing liberal".
>
> Or a convert to the Buddhist ideal of
> "Skillful Means"?
>
> </TechnoUtopianism>
>
> On 6/1/25 10:10 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>
> I think you are underestimating how much
> progress has been made with batteries in
> recent years.
>
> California has large solar resources, and
> it is not unusual that during the day the
> whole grid is powered by solar. Here is
> from last week. Note the huge surge of
> battery usage in the evening. Tens of
> gigawatts of generation power are planned
> for offshore wind too.
>
> Generally, though, I agree that much of
> the planet is completely addicted to oil,
> and there’s no technology that will yet
> handle air travel. Hydrogen might work,
> but it will take time.
>
> The way to break an addiction is to have
> the addict hit rock bottom.
>
> There need to be some scary climate
> events. The prices for energy need to
> increase before people change their ways.
> Redirecting energy into AI is one way to
> bring that to fruition.
>
> A chart of different colors Description
> automatically generated
>
> *From: *Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com>
> <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com> on
> behalf of Prof David West
> <profwest at fastmail.fm>
> <mailto:profwest at fastmail.fm>
> *Date: *Sunday, June 1, 2025 at 8:27 AM
> *To: *friam at redfish.com
> <friam at redfish.com> <mailto:friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] Limits to Growth
>
> Unfortunately, it is almost certain that
> there will never be enough 'fossil fuel
> free power stations' to supply needed
> energy for electric vehicles.
>
> Data centers, driven in large part by AI
> demands and cryptocurrency will leave
> nothing left over.
>
> Some numbers:
>
> Three Mile Island, which is being
> recommissioned to supply power to a couple
> of Microsoft Data Centers, has a capacity
> of 7 Terawatt hours(T/w/h) per year.
>
> In 2022 data centers, globally, consumed
> 460 TWh, by 2026 this is estimated to be
> 1,000 Twh. By 2040 projected demand is
> 2,000-3,000 TWh.
>
> Crypto adds 100-150 TWh in 2022, 200-300
> in 2030, and 400-600 in 2040.
>
> Nuclear is unlikely to provide more than
> 25% of this demand.
>
> Between now and 2040, it will be necessary
> to build 100 TMI-capacity nuclear plants
> to supply that 25%.
>
> If solar is to supply the other 75%, it
> will require between 66,000 and 80,000
> square miles of solar panels. (Don't know
> how many batteries, but the number is not
> trivial.)
>
> Wind power, for that 75%, will require
> 153,000 to 214,000 turbines, each
> requiring 50-60 acres of space beneath
> them. (Also the problem of batteries.)
>
> It takes 10-15 years to build a nuclear
> plant like TMI, have no idea now many dollars.
>
> Neither solar nor wind, nor combined, can
> be installed fast enough to meet this
> demand and, again, have no idea of cost.
>
> Nothing left over for cars, the lights in
> your home and office, or to charge your
> phone: unless, of course we continue to
> rely on oil (shale and fracking), natural
> gas, and coal.
>
> davew
>
> On Sun, Jun 1, 2025, at 6:24 AM, Pieter
> Steenekamp wrote:
>
> This is why I’m so excited about
> electric vehicles—I feel like a kid
> waiting for Christmas! Add clean
> fossil fuel free power stations into
> the mix, and voilà: abundant clean
> energy, no miracle inventions
> required. Just some clever tech and a
> whole lot of charging cables!
>
> On Sun, 1 Jun 2025 at 12:57, Jochen
> Fromm <jofr at cas-group.net> wrote:
>
> I believe we all have a slighty
> distorted view because we were all
> born long after industrialization
> has started and have seen nothing
> but growth. Industrialization
> started around 200 years ago in
> Great Britain and spread shortly
> after to America and Europe. First
> by exploiting coal and steam
> engines, later by oil and petrol
> engines. Tanks, warplanes,
> warships as well as normal cars,
> planes and ships all consume oil.
>
> Richard Heinberg writes in his
> book "The End of Growth": "with
> the fossil fuel revolution of the
> past century and a half, we have
> seen economic growth at a speed
> and scale unprecedented in all of
> human history. We harnessed the
> energies of coal, oil, and natural
> gas to build and operate cars,
> trucks, highways, airports,
> airplanes, and electric grids -
> all the esential features of
> modern industrial society. Through
> the one-time-only process of
> extracting and burning hundreds of
> millions of years worth of
> chemically stored sunlight, we
> built what appeared (for a brief,
> shining moment) to be a
> perpetual-growth machine. We
> learned to take what was in fact
> an extraordinary situation for
> granted. It became normal [...]
> During the past 150 years,
> expanding access to cheap and
> abundar fossil fuels enabled rapid
> economic expansion at an average
> rate of about three percent per
> year; economic planners began to
> take this situain for granted.
> Financial systems internalized the
> expectation of growth as a promise
> of returns on investments."
>
> https://richardheinberg.com/bookshelf/the-end-of-growth-book
>
> Heinberg argues the time of cheap
> and abundant fossil fuels has come
> to an end. There 1.5 billion cars
> in the world which consume oil and
> produce CO2. Resources are
> depleted while pollution and
> population have reached all time
> highs. It is true that humans are
> innovative and ingenious,
> especially in times of scarcity,
> necessity and need, and we are
> able to find replacements for
> depleted resources, but Heinberg
> argues in his book "Peak
> Everything: that "in a finite
> world, the number of possible
> replacements is also finite". For
> example we were able to replace
> the whale oil by petroleum, but
> finding a replacement for
> petroleum is much harder.
>
> https://richardheinberg.com/bookshelf/peak-everything
>
> Without oil no army would move,
> traffic would cease, no container
> or cruise ship would be able to go
> anywhere and therefore
> international trade and tourism
> would stop. On the bright side no
> more plastic and CO2 pollution
> either.
>
> In his book "End of Growth"
> Heinberg mentions "transition
> towns" as a path towards a more
> sustainable society and an economy
> which is not based on fossil-fuels.
>
> https://donellameadows.org/archives/rob-hopkins-my-town-in-transition/
>
> French author Victor Hugo wrote
> 200 years ago that "the paradise
> of the rich is made out of the
> hell of the poor". If rich people
> start to realize this and help to
> find a way to a more sustainable,
> livable society it would be a start.
>
> -J.
>
> -------- Original message --------
>
> From: Pieter Steenekamp
> <pieters at randcontrols.co.za>
>
> Date: 5/31/25 5:46 AM (GMT+01:00)
>
> To: The Friday Morning Applied
> Complexity Coffee Group
> <friam at redfish.com>
>
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Limits to Growth
>
> I’ve always loved the
> Simon-Ehrlich bet story—two clever
> guys betting on the future of the
> planet. Ehrlich lost the bet, but
> the debate still runs circles today.
>
> https://ourworldindata.org/simon-ehrlich-bet
>
> This article nails it: over the
> long term, prices mostly go down,
> not up, as innovation kicks in. We
> don’t "run out" of resources—we
> get better at using them. Scarcity
> shifts, but human creativity
> shifts faster.
>
> The Limits to Growth folks had
> good intentions, but the real
> limit seems to be how fast we can
> adapt and rethink. And so far,
> we’re doing okay—messy, uneven,
> but okay.
>
> Turns out, betting against human
> ingenuity is the real risky business.
>
> On Fri, 30 May 2025 at 21:51,
> steve smith <sasmyth at swcp.com> wrote:
>
> REC -
>
> Very timely... I did a deep
> dive/revisit (also met the
> seminal work in college in the
> 70s) into Limits to Growth and
> World3 before the Stockholm
> workshop on Climate (and other
> existential threats)
> Complexity Merle wrangled in
> 2019.... and was both
> impressed and disappointed.
> Rockstrom and folks were
> located right across the water
> from us where we met but to my
> knowledge didn't engage...
> their work was very
> complementary but did not feel
> as relevant to me then as it
> does now.
>
> In the following interview, I
> felt he began to address many
> of the things I (previously)
> felt were lacking in their
> framework previoiusly. It was
> there all the time I'm sure, I
> just didn't see it and I think
> they were not ready to talk as
> broadly of implications 5
> years ago as they are now?
>
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6_3mOgvrN4
>
> Did anyone notice the swiss
> village inundated by debris
> and meltwater from the glacier
> collapse uphill? Signs of
> the times or "business as usual"?
>
> - SAS
>
> On 5/30/25 12:16 PM, Roger
> Critchlow wrote:
>
> https://thenextwavefutures.wordpress.com/2025/05/20/limits-to-growth-was-right-about-overshoot-and-collapse-new-data/
>
> I remember the Limits to
> Growth from my freshman
> year in college. Now
> Hackernews links to the
> above in which some people
> argue that we've achieved
> the predicted overshoot
> for the business as usual
> scenario and the
> subsequent collapse begins
> now. Enjoy the peak of
> human technological
> development.
>
> -- rec --
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