[FRIAM] Back at the ranch, I'm enjoying the popcorn.
steve smith
sasmyth at swcp.com
Tue Mar 4 20:01:29 EST 2025
On 3/4/25 10:15 AM, Tom Johnson wrote:
> You're assuming the ongoing presence of Trump and Putin.
> I don't know about Putin, but Trump is a cult leader. If something
> happens to him, Vance etc al. can't carry the water.
I agree, nobody able to carry Trump's nor Putin's water (as it were)...
a bit of a red=herring at that point... some wild card might appear out
of nowhere and (mis)fill the void in some unexpected way (e.g. Asimov's
"Mule" of "theFoundation"?)
One tiny anueurism or a dose of pollonium in the diet coke or some
Ioicane Powder and the modern world diffracts off into some strange new
basin of attraction we haven't even imagined?
/Viva la punctuated equllibrium!
/
> T
>
>
> =======================
> Tom Johnson
> Inst. for Analytic Journalism
> Santa Fe, New Mexico
> 505-577-6482
> =======================
>
> On Mon, Mar 3, 2025, 9:44 PM steve smith <sasmyth at swcp.com> wrote:
>
> Friday afternoon the simple term "WWIII" took on a whole new
> understanding/context for me.
>
> Before that it was some variation on a nuclear exchange between
> any 2-3 of the major nuclear powers (US/USSR/China) which was held
> at bay mostly by variations on MAD. Not only did the possibility
> of retaliation (before first-strike lands, or soon after) make it
> unthinkable, but so did the challenges of regional and global
> nuclear contamination and a likely nuclear winter (minimum of
> northern hemisphere, but global consequences).
>
> Now I see it being something more like a new European War similar
> to WWI & WWII, not involving North America directly (we don't
> pitch nor catch any)
>
> 1. Europe sends in air and ground troops (and more equipment) to
> Ukraine to squash Putin's vestigal army. Marcus' no-fly-zone.
> 1. Ukraine continues to punish Russia (e.g. destroying
> military assets inside Russia)
> 2. The European coalition masses conventional forces on
> Russian borders with a "ready posture"
> 3. Russia is humiliated.
> 4. Putin (not Russia) in his humiliation decides to use his
> nukes... craters half the major cities or capitols in UK/EU.
> 5. France and UK have a *handful* of nukes. I'm out of date,
> most or all are on nuclear subs which Russia may or may
> not know the location of.
> 6. Moscow and a few 'grads become craters.
> 7. Nuclear Winter
> 8. Misery across Eurasia, the likes of which Russians are
> more accustomed
> 2. Europe can't agree enough to give Ukraine decisive support (as
> in 1 above).
> 1. Russia grinds Ukraine down, while using up yet more of
> it's own dwindling military and human capital.
> 2. Europe and Russia rattle sabers for months or years but
> Russia is too depleted to continue a conventional war.
> 3. Russia (Putin) gets impatient or arrogant and decides to
> nuke European powers.
> 4. Again, the handful of non-US nukes targeted on Russia are
> enough to make a bad mess and maybe even win but only if
> used pre-emptively.
> 5. (Western) Eurasia is a mess for a century.
> 3. In either case MAGA (with/without Trump alive/vital/engaged)
> sits back and eats popcorn.
> 1. If MAGA holds US power, they grind away at European and
> possibly Russian resources, stealing and war profiteering
> boldly.
> 2. Maybe anti-MAGA backlashes MAGA out of power (probably has
> to be a strong political win followed by some minor but
> decisive bloodshed). Maybe we help them rebuild (similar
> to post-WWII) or maybe we just sit back on our side of the
> Ocean.
> 4. China waits patiently for the right moment to grab Mongolia
> for it's "raw earth" (trump SIC) and/or Taiwan.... possibly
> are both worth their effort... possibly the US uses the
> European distraction as an opportunity to treat China as our
> only overt competitor.
>
> I don't see the world "a better place" for any of this except in
> the extreme case of significant depopulation of both (sadly)
> third-world innocents and first-world belligerents (military,
> political, economic), and even then it isn't clear to me just
> *when* or *how* the "meek inherit the earth" but I'll be damned if
> it isn't an outcome I find myself rooting for! Feels like if
> COVID had just been slightly more virulent, we might have gotten
> there by a vaguely more graceful route?
>
> GAH!
>
>
> On 3/3/25 9:10 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>>
>> 1. NATO creates a no-fly zone over Ukraine, and destroys any
>> Russian asset in Ukraine
>> 2. The Ukranians continue to develop their drone programs for
>> targeted attacks in Russia
>> 3. Europe gives them long-range weapons, Storm Shadow and Taurus
>> for larger targets
>>
>> Biden should have just done this, knowing that Trump would throw
>> the world into chaos.
>>
>> *From:*Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com>
>> <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Pieter Steenekamp
>> *Sent:* Monday, March 3, 2025 7:50 PM
>> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
>> <friam at redfish.com> <mailto:friam at redfish.com>
>> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Back at the ranch, I'm enjoying the popcorn.
>>
>>
>> A Case For and Against Trump in the Context of Ukraine
>>
>> The Case Against Trump
>> Russia invaded Ukraine, and Ukraine has been fighting back
>> heroically for three years. It is crucial to take decisive action
>> against countries that invade others unprovoked. A good example
>> is the First Gulf War, when Iraq invaded Kuwait, and the U.S. led
>> a coalition to push Iraq out. That kind of response helps
>> maintain international order.
>>
>> However, Trump now portrays Ukraine as the aggressor and openly
>> aligns himself with Putin. His stance undermines the principle of
>> standing against aggression and emboldens authoritarian regimes.
>> His willingness to cozy up to Putin is simply wrong. Period.
>>
>> The Case For Trump
>> Maintaining international order is important, but only if you
>> have the power to enforce it effectively. If you can't win a war,
>> engaging in it is a mistake. Consider how the U.S. aligned with
>> Stalin in the later stages of World War II—not because Stalin was
>> good, but because confronting him directly wasn’t a realistic
>> option at the time. Putin may be an amateur compared to Stalin,
>> but the logic remains: if you can’t stop him, you may have to
>> find a way to work with him.
>>
>> Looking at today's reality, there is no viable path to pushing
>> Russia out of Ukraine unless the U.S. commits fully—boots on the
>> ground. But no one in America supports that. Given this, there’s
>> a case for engaging with Russia pragmatically, much like how the
>> U.S. dealt with Stalin, to bring the war to an end.
>>
>> Continuing to support Ukraine half-heartedly, without full
>> military commitment, has serious downsides. The war could drag on
>> indefinitely, and if Ukraine eventually wins, Russia would be
>> humiliated. A humiliated nuclear-armed Russia is a dangerous
>> prospect. History offers a warning—Germany’s humiliation after
>> World War I directly contributed to the rise of Hitler. The
>> consequences of a humiliated Russia could be similarly
>> unpredictable and catastrophic.
>>
>> My Take
>> In my lifetime, we had an almost perfect leader in South
>> Africa—Nelson Mandela. Unfortunately, he is no longer with us.
>> But surely, with today's AI, we could create a virtual Madiba,
>> and he would know exactly what to do.
>>
>> On Mon, 3 Mar 2025 at 22:28, Tom Johnson <jtjohnson555 at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>> So as usual: Follow the Money.
>> If Trump gets a deal with Ukraine on those rare earth
>> minerals, upon leaving Ukraine, where does that ore go and to
>> whom? My bet is to some company(ies) that Trump et al. have
>> interests in.
>>
>> TJ
>>
>> On Mon, Mar 3, 2025 at 12:33 PM Santafe <desmith at santafe.edu>
>> wrote:
>>
>> It’s such an encapsulation of that part of the society
>> (including t and v) to think that they could “humiliate”
>> Zelenskyy. By insisting, in a conversation with toxic
>> scum, on the relevance of reality, he was about the only
>> clean thing in the room that could be heard.
>>
>> There are people like Fareed Zakaria who think that trump
>> can be somehow managed by a canny player. That doesn’t
>> ring correct to me, unless the player has a lot of power
>> and money, and it is the power and money that are
>> managing trump. No agreement with trump is worth the
>> paper it is written on. We all understand that he will
>> do anything he is not stopped from doing. The problem
>> with the american presidency is that there become fewer
>> and fewer actors who can stop its occupant from doing
>> things, in the era of political parties as universalizing
>> corrupting bodies. If this whole train continues, they
>> will eventually degrade the u.s. in wealth and power
>> enough that its ability to do damage declines. But there
>> is so much accumulated right now, that they can do
>> enormous harm before they undercut themselves.
>>
>> I am persuaded by those who opine that trump has no
>> intention of doing anything to aid Ukraine, and that the
>> point of the performance was to put up a front for not
>> doing anything, for the same audience who interprets any
>> of that as a humiliation of Zelenskyy. If trump could
>> extort money or resource access, and then backstab in
>> return for it, I expect he would be interested in that
>> opportunity. But not more than that.
>>
>> I also think that people are living a little bit in the
>> past when they comment that, with trump, it’s always
>> about money. That was before the first presidency, when
>> his possibilities to exercise abusive power over other
>> people in a country with some degree of rule of law was
>> limited, relative to the amount of spending he could do
>> (whether solvent or insolvent). But the access to
>> abusive power in the presidency, for a sociopath, is on a
>> scale not available to anybody else. If money was heroin
>> for that addiction, the power of the presidency is
>> fentanyl, and I don’t think trump is going back now.
>> Money: fine; but that’s now the second motive.
>>
>> (I think there are elements of this for Musk as well, but
>> there is enough about him that is different that I
>> wouldn’t put him in the same category, or in the same
>> post here.)
>>
>> I, of course, don’t _know_ anything, and I don’t even
>> have any sophistication thinking in this sphere. But
>> from my long distance from it, I can imagine that the
>> calculus is roughly this at the moment: It is still
>> possible that trump won’t direct the u.s. military to
>> attack Ukraine directly. The question whether it is
>> possible comes back, entirely, to what force is available
>> to stop him from ordering it. I don’t doubt for a minute
>> that, if the EU starts to get scared, and if they have
>> time to act constructively, enough to start to give
>> Ukraine meaningful ability to hold land or push back a
>> bit, the u.s. under trump would act as a saboteur of that
>> effort.
>>
>> If that is the correct vantage point, I would imagine
>> that Zelenskyy’s challenge is to try to orient the rest
>> of the world into some structure that will hem trump and
>> the trumpers in as much as possible from direct attack,
>> and where possible against sabotage. (Sabotage is
>> harder, because to even find out that it is going on, you
>> need somebody on the inside to report.) If they can get
>> some weapons out of the weapons contractors and the
>> congressmen, sure; try to do what you can. But any of
>> that has meaning only when it is in your hands and being
>> used. Don’t put weight on anything short of that.
>>
>> (I don’t mean, in this, btw, to downplay the true problem
>> that the current condition is a WWI-type trench warfare
>> with drones, and the prospect of extending that to a
>> point of collapse is already so bad, that it takes
>> something truly awful for that not to be the worst. I
>> don’t see indication that any good-faith actor anywhere
>> is denying that, though I don’t think saying it, alone,
>> makes one a good-faith actor.)
>>
>>
>> I had a conversation with a friend over the weekend who
>> is a NASA program manager, and who interpreted a recent
>> directive they had received, to discontinue the use of
>> paper straws, and replace them with plastic straws, as a
>> kickback to some petroleum company that had bribed
>> trump. Given that this is a smart person I am talking
>> to, the quaintness of that interpretation took my breath
>> away. It seems clear beyond daylight, to me, that the
>> images of turtles with straws in their noses, and
>> seabirds dead of them, were the breakthrough that the
>> environmental groups finally got with the public, to get
>> some action to ban that specific plastic item as one of
>> the most insidiously dangerous and cruel. The point of
>> the paper-straw ban was the point of everything with
>> these people. Most directly, it was an intent to deliver
>> a “defeat” to the environmental groups, focusing on the
>> image that had succeeded for them precisely because it is
>> so awful to have to see more of. But more generally,
>> this is the core of meanness. It is a rage, by those who
>> are defiled in their nature, against the existence of
>> anything that isn’t defiled.
>>
>> This is again Hannah Arendt’s summary of the last-century
>> European political actors: that they didn’t understand
>> the distinction between the parties and the movements.
>> The parties wanted to control the government, whereas the
>> movements wanted to destroy the government. Public
>> commentary on this drives me nuts, because it seems to
>> exactly repeat this error. People talk about the
>> appointments of degraded morons to agency heads as being
>> about loyalty: take somebody who couldn’t earn anything
>> in a world of merit, and put him on a plush perch that he
>> knows he will only retain as long as he can continue to
>> curry favor. But I believe that only to about a 30% level
>> as the motive. And it is an inward-facing motive; how to
>> keep various functionaries on a leash. There is an
>> outward-directed motive, and I think that is about 70% of
>> the drive. These people are put there, because he
>> couldn’t find anybody worse. It is again the effort to
>> eliminate the notion of legitimacy from the concept of
>> society people will adopt and live within.
>>
>> The word I wanted to use for the latter, thinking over
>> the weekend, was “vesting”. It’s a bit of a bland word,
>> but it wraps up several things that otherwise I can’t
>> encompass in one word. The cognitive concept of truth;
>> abstract notions such as justice; the society as an
>> agreement underpinned by legitimized institutions. What
>> all these have in common is that people accept restraint
>> to uphold a prior commitment to these other things as
>> “higher” over the long run. And when the mob wants to
>> destroy the state — meaning, really to destroy that
>> concept of society — it is this “higher” that they can
>> keep their attention fixed on, as all the other
>> particular targets (immigrants, academics, civil
>> servants, black people, gay people, etc.) get rotated in
>> and out as opportunities arise.
>>
>> So anyway: if every dealing with trump turns out to be,
>> over time, a loss for Zelenskyy — the reality behind the
>> literary Faustian Bargain — he may not be worse off
>> having the break occur earlier. I don’t know what it may
>> buy him to have humiliated t and v, by having the dignity
>> to not accept those terms of conversation, in terms of
>> coalition-building with other heads of state.
>>
>>
>> I do continue to wonder what China’s play in this will
>> be. I imagine they think they will have no trouble
>> “managing” Russia into some kind of continuing
>> subordinate status, when it is alone with a gigantic land
>> area but a limited economy and population. If it were
>> even just Russia swallowing Ukraine, China might still
>> think of that as an okay outcome. I feel pretty sure they
>> want the rare earths, in view of their relations with
>> Mongolia up to now, and the fact that the only thing
>> protecting Taiwan is that it holds the entire world’s
>> highest technology as a trust, and collapsing it would
>> cause such a large global implosion that it would
>> destabilize China as well, for now. But they probably
>> figure they can get those from Russian control, where
>> Russia couldn’t develop them internally anyway. An
>> actual coalition of Russia with the U.S., however, could
>> become more worrisome for China, even if the U.S. is
>> undergoing a process of self-degradation. So it is not
>> inconceivable to me that China could want some stalemate
>> to go on a while longer, which limits the coordination of
>> the trumpers with other large actors as much as feasible.
>> Another Faustian bargain for Zelenskyy if it is offered.
>> But maybe more predictable in the short term.
>>
>> But there, too, I don’t know anything.
>>
>> Eric
>>
>>
>>
>> > On Mar 3, 2025, at 11:34, steve smith
>> <sasmyth at swcp.com> wrote:
>> >
>> >
>> >> It's way too generous to say "Trump has a case". Trump
>> and Vance's "case" consists of "You should be grateful to
>> us because we give you money". I.e. suck up to me and
>> I'll deign to give you more money.
>> > I don't think Trump or Vance have backed any
>> significant support for Ukraine. The US people through
>> our elected representatives and tax dollars *HAVE*
>> supported Ukraine (albeit a little slowly an a little
>> anemically and a little timidly sometimes?). Zelensky
>> has been extravagantly and eloquently thankful to all of
>> the above. Trump and Vance were spoiling for an
>> opportunity to try to humiliate Zelensky in front of the
>> cameras, so they contrived it.
>> >> Maybe someone makes the case you say is Trump's. But
>> it's not Trump making that case. If he sporadically
>> vomits words that sound like that, it's because they were
>> put into his mouth by someone else. The question is Who
>> put them there? Putin? Elno? Thiel?
>> >
>> > The "raw earth" (sic Trump) deal was extortion.
>> Whether Ukraine's mineral resources could or should be
>> mortgaged to secure the financial support is one thing,
>> but the idea that the point of the West supporting
>> Ukraine against the hyper-aggressive Putin-led Russia is
>> about economics completely misses the point. Zelensky
>> is right to avoid "doing business with" anyone who is not
>> a clear staunch ally when in this situation.
>> >
>> > Trump & Allies are clearly "War Profiteers", a fine old
>> tradition among the industrialists and financiers of the
>> "free world".
>> >
>> >
>> >>
>> >> On 3/2/25 7:42 PM, Pieter Steenekamp wrote:
>> >>> Just watched a new episode where two toddlers threw
>> their toys out of the cot.
>> >>>
>> >>> Zelensky makes a strong case — Putin is unreliable,
>> having broken numerous agreements in the past, so any
>> peace deal would need ironclad security guarantees. But
>> lecturing Trump is hardly the way to secure a favorable
>> minerals trade agreement.
>> >>>
>> >>> Trump also has a valid case — the war is stagnating,
>> there’s no realistic military path to driving Russia out
>> of Ukraine, and pursuing peace makes sense. But losing
>> your temper at an international press conference is not
>> the way to get there.
>> >>>
>> >>> At the end of the day, they’re all human, and it
>> makes for great real-life drama. I can't wait for the
>> next episode!
>> >>>
>> >>
>> >>
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