[FRIAM] Metaphor... and more...

Sun Apr 5 22:04:21 EDT 2026

Fascinating.   Thanks, Eric.

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Sun, Apr 5, 2026, 6:11 PM Santafe <desmith at santafe.edu> wrote:

> General direction is okay, Frank, but what you have below needs to be
> modulated a bit to align with what workers are actually doing.
>
> I answer you here only because your reply isn’t in the middle of any
> agenda that needs defending, and because of my infinitely irritating need
> to align things.  Just for future reference, for the next time somebody
> cites you.
>
> Fitness, as the statisticians following Fisher (and then Price) define it,
> is an extracted part of the total contribution to change in the
> distributions of just-whatever-features in a population state, which refers
> (by the convention people use) to comparable stages in successive
> “generations” (constructed however that needs to be for the given
> population-dynamic in question; there is a combinatorium of variants).
>
> Surviving to reproduce, and then reproducing, both have to occur within
> that window (a “generation”), and both can have structure.  Moreover, the
> sources of differentiation can be distinct as they are expressed in
> survival and as they are expressed in offspring-production.  Geneticists
> (but I assume, evolutionary biologists more generally), refer to the two
> groups of effects, respectively, as “mortality selection” and “fecundity
> selection”.  So even as only-one element in the contribution to
> population-state change, “fitness” still subsumes multiple distinct
> sources, and does not refer only to survival.  If we used a richer set of
> summary statistics than fitness to capture selection, there would be more
> refined sub-effects than these two that we could separate.  That is
> entirely doable, but is not part of conventional practice.
>
> I think Ewens and Lessard contain usage of this standard form, for the
> garden-variety minimal models, to give you a sense that it is
> long-established and very conventional:
> Checking your browser - reCAPTCHA
> <https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26220589/>
> nlm.nih.gov <https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26220589/>
> [image: apple-touch-icon-precomposed.png]
> <https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26220589/>
> <https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26220589/>
> If not in exactly this paper, then maybe in Ewens’s other stuff in this
> same thread of his — e.g.
> [image: cover.png]
>
> What is the Gene Trying to Do? | The British Journal for the Philosophy of
> Science: Vol 62, No 1
> <https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1093/bjps/axq005>
> journals.uchicago.edu
> <https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1093/bjps/axq005>
> <https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1093/bjps/axq005>
> or in his big yellow standard textbook:
> [image: 978-0-387-21822-9.jpg]
>
> Mathematical Population Genetics 1
> <https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-0-387-21822-9>
> link.springer.com
> <https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-0-387-21822-9>
> <https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-0-387-21822-9>
>
> All best, and sorry to be tedious,
>
> Eric
>
>
>
>
> On Apr 2, 2026, at 3:50, Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> I thought fitness was a measure of the likelihood of survival in a given
> environment.  Hence fitness together with the capacity and drive to
> reproduce would determine the continuation of a species.  But I'm no
> biologist.
>
> Frank
> ---
> Frank C. Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g>
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g>
>
> 505 670-9918
> Santa Fe, NM
>
> On Wed, Apr 1, 2026, 5:15 AM Santafe <desmith at santafe.edu> wrote:
>
>> Can I ask one last question? after which I promise I really will shut up:
>>
>> The content of EricC’s note below (about the key in a lock), reflecting
>> back on things Nick said in the early posts about selection’s being a
>> tautology, which got me started digging a hole, have bothered me through
>> the night, and made me wonder if I can understand how I have been missing
>> both-of-y’all’s point.  Was it something like the following:?
>>
>> — for me, “fitness” is a name given to (something like) the units (or
>> dimension) in which reproductive success is measured, or quantified.  Not
>> sure “units” is quite the right term, but the point is that it’s about
>> defining a quantification program for observed outcomes, or the model
>> variables that we try to fit to them.  I had taken the state of modern work
>> to show that this is the only actual meaning the term was ever given.
>>
>> — are you two claiming otherwise; that my supposition is not at all the
>> case?  That there are biologists for whom there is some other meaning,
>> instead of or in addition to the one I gave above, about being a
>> measurement unit?  Something like: “fitness” is a name for “the cause of
>> reproductive success”.  As if to say: Well, there’s this thing with the
>> form of a name, so there must be something it names, that is a kind of
>> causal force responsible for generating what we witness as reproductive
>> success.  And since there is one name, there must be some one kind of
>> causal force it names.
>>
>> — to me, an interpretation like that is so bizarre, it would never have
>> occurred to me to that there is anyone making it.  It seems very similar to
>> taking an expression like “elan vital”, and saying that, since it has the
>> shape of a name, there must be something it names.  To me, those are
>> strings of words that satisfy rules of syntax and that don’t have any
>> semantic referents at all.  They may as well be Chomsky’s “colorless green
>> dreams” or something.  I would not have imagined that there was anything
>> anyone expected, beyond the working out of the mechanics of lots of cases
>> of how-lifecycles-play-out-in-contexts, which can fill out some vast
>> taxonomy that has no singular “essence” underneath it.  That could well be
>> my lack of empathy for how many other people think, like my lack of empathy
>> for their thoughts about God (along with my ignorance about who is in the
>> world).
>>
>> — I guess, since there are people who continue to talk about Strong
>> Emergence, and Philosophical Zombies, and who sound to me much like people
>> who talk about God today, and maybe like people who would have talked about
>> Elan Vital some generations ago, I should have right away imagined this
>> reading of what you were writing.
>>
>> If the above is what you were claiming, it would explain why my long
>> Emily Litella-like replies seemed like a tiresome recital of what
>> population geneticists already do (Nick’s point that “all that would be
>> left is EricS’s 2a and 2b”), which everybody already knows anyway, and
>> which isn’t interesting and wasn’t to your point.
>>
>> So, were you claiming that there are biologists operating that way?
>>
>> And are there really biologists operating that way?
>>
>> As always, I appreciate whatever patience or indulgence,
>>
>> Eric
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> On Mar 31, 2026, at 15:47, Eric Charles <eric.phillip.charles at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>> I'm a bit confused here...
>> The initial dog pile on Nick seemed (to me) to have as one of its main
>> points something like "Look, old man, once you formalize something
>> mathematically we don't need to care what any of the words might mean or
>> imply in any other context, it is just math, stop thinking that the words
>> matter!"
>>
>> And now there have been several posts by EricS, at least one by Glen, and
>> I think Marcus and Frank are in there somewhere as well, claiming that the
>> words are crucially important and we need to take them much more seriously.
>>
>> So.... where does that leave us? Is everyone now onboard with
>> the metaphors mattering quite a bit?
>>
>> I'll also note that "function" can't do the work on its own to explain
>> evolution. We still need to know why some functions are favored by
>> selection and others are not. EricS seemed to indicate that we assess "fit"
>> by determining if animals are "happy".... but the metaphor of "fit" is like
>> a key in a lock. To explain evolution you need the matching of
>> form-and-function-to-a-particular-environment.  That matching *sometimes*
>> increases reproductive success, and *sometimes* the traits in question are
>> hereditary.
>>
>> Population genetics combined with field research can be very powerful
>> along those lines, but the math of population genetics on its own, floating
>> out in the ether, can't do it at all.
>>
>> Best,
>> Eric
>>
>>
>> <echarles at american.edu>
>>
>>
>> On Tue, Mar 31, 2026 at 6:10 AM Santafe <desmith at santafe.edu> wrote:
>>
>>> Hi Nick,
>>>
>>> Two smaller replies to what have become two sub-threads:
>>>
>>> > On Mar 30, 2026, at 15:42, Nicholas Thompson <thompnickson2 at gmail.com>
>>> wrote:
>>> >
>>> > DES, EPC, FW
>>> >
>>> > So far as I understand, the argument flowing from Fisher makes no
>>> claims about the kind of trait that produces reproductive success other
>>> than that it is the kind that produces reproductive success. FW, if that's
>>> not a tautology, it's a pretty tight circle.
>>>
>>> As usual, let’s decamp to more neutral ground in the hope of having an
>>> ordinary negotiation.
>>>
>>> Suppose that, in your overweening pursuit of the study of metaphor, you
>>> never noticed that there is a once/4-year gathering called The Olympics.
>>> Also never learned what any of its so-called “events” are, what they are
>>> about, how they work, and how one differs from another.  My hypothetical
>>> here is meant to define a condition of having “very little prior
>>> information” about some phenomenon that we can, nonetheless, still
>>> reasonably unambiguously circumscribe.
>>>
>>> But a quick inspection shows that a subset of the participants (who all
>>> together seem to be called “athletes”) are given metal disks and stand on
>>> some kind of 3-tiered podium, while other athletes do not.  Being a
>>> statistician — a skill so helpful in the study of metaphor that it was
>>> worth taking the time out to learn — you immediately recognize that this is
>>> a kind of marking that can be used to partition the athletes.  Taking
>>> notice, for the first time, of some of the conversation in the society
>>> around you, who seem not nearly so devoted to metaphor and thus have time
>>> to do other things, you gather that these marked people seem to be called
>>> “winners” (or better, “medalists”, this “winning” thing is a finer
>>> sub-partition; I’ll mis-use “winner” to label the most salient marking for
>>> this little parable).  It’s handy to have such a term, for use in later
>>> sentences, so they become less tedious than the ones I have been typing so
>>> far.
>>>
>>> You also note that while there is only one 3-tiered podium and
>>> metal-disk set per one “event”, there seem to be many such distinct
>>> “events”, so some kind of event name gives you a second kind of marking you
>>> can put on the athletes.  Moreover, interestingly, the “event” label is
>>> again a proper partition (or at least seems to be; this one is less
>>> cut-and-dried than the observation that everyone carrying a metal disk is
>>> not someone not-carrying a metal disk, so we are wary; the event label
>>> seems to be a bit more abstract): every athlete is in some “event” set, and
>>> it appears that no athlete is in more than one of them.  As with the
>>> “winners” label, you learn that there are conventionalized names for the
>>> events, and you can find a look-up table if you need one or another of
>>> them.
>>>
>>> Now, I can make a list of statements that seem to be of two different
>>> kinds (scare quotes here indicate my statisticians’ attribute labels; in my
>>> condition of very little prior knowledge, I don’t claim I have any more
>>> semantics for them than I listed above):
>>>
>>> 1. Every “winner" is someone marked as having won something.
>>>
>>> 2a.  Every winner in the “gymnastics” event is shorter than the average
>>> over all the participants;
>>>
>>> 2b.  Every winner in the “high jump” event is taller than the average
>>> over all the participants;
>>>
>>> … (we could presumably look for other such summary statistics that seem
>>> to be unusually regular and to carry different values in different
>>> “events”).
>>>
>>> I would say sentence 1 is “a tautology”, or close enough to it for the
>>> purpose of this negotiation.  Maybe I should use EricC’s good, and slighly
>>> more flexible term, “truism”.
>>>
>>> Now you may write a protest email:  But the sentences 2a, 2b, have not
>>> told me what constitutes “competition” in these “events”: “gymnastics” and
>>> “high jump”, and given me the rule book for scoring them.  Okay.  And they
>>> didn’t cook your dinner and do the dishes afterward either. Life is hard.
>>> And more a propos (breaking my little 4th wall here), the path to a
>>> fully-adequate “causal” theory through statistical inference is like the
>>> Road to Heaven: narrow, tortuous, and inadequate to many things one can
>>> rightly want to know.  That’s what other sciences are then for.
>>>
>>> But if you claim: The sentences 2a and 2b didn’t give me _any
>>> information_ about these “events”, and couldn’t have, because they are
>>> tautologies, I would say you made an error.  Of course, the real Nick would
>>> not say that, so we are all safe.
>>>
>>> The above parable is, of course, about selection.  I didn’t say anything
>>> about heredity.  But if I had happened to note that height is a fairly
>>> heritable trait, I could have spun out a much longer story, and defined
>>> some Bayesian-posterior conditional probabilities, which would be shown to
>>> have properties such as: the posterior probability, under various ceteris
>>> paribus conditions, for a child of a high-jump winner to turn out another
>>> high-jump winner is higher than for that child to turn out a gymnastics
>>> winner, and so forth.  The amalgamation of both of those stories would go
>>> in the direction of Fisher’s fundamental theorem.  It would leave out all
>>> the stuff that Fisher left out of emphasis in his mad pursuit of his
>>> covariance term as an analog to the thermodynamic 2nd law (a non-valid
>>> analogy, as it turns out to be easy to show), and that Price included
>>> didactically (and here, to EricC’s answer):  that I didn’t even mention
>>> that the tall people might get drafted into wars and put into an infantry
>>> to fire rifles over tall dijks, while the short people might be drafted
>>> into Special Forces and sent on missions to attack through underground
>>> tunnels, and so the number of survivors could depend on many factors about
>>> which war their country had started, in what theater, and against what
>>> opposition, etc.  These are the world of everything-else that Fisher lumped
>>> together into “deterioration of the environment”, as Steve Frank (and I
>>> think also Price) lays out.  They are probably not well-analogized to
>>> “mutation”, but in genetics, mutation also goes into the same bin in the
>>> Price equation — _outside_ the term of Fisher’s fundamental theorem — as
>>> the “deterioration” effects.  The accounting identity is flexible enough
>>> that we don’t need analogies to use it; we can formulate a version for
>>> whatever statistics our phenomenon-of-interest supplies.
>>>
>>> Anyway; at issue:  Seriously, do we have a problem in scientific work,
>>> of people being unable to gain partial knowledge about phenomena through
>>> sentences of the kinds 2a, 2b, because they can’t tell the difference
>>> between those and sentence 1?  In the world where I live, I don’t see
>>> evidence for this mistake.
>>>
>>> Eric
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
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