[FRIAM] The apocalypse

Thu Aug 10 15:47:13 EDT 2017

"However, according to FEMA, the US Military, the Department of Energy, and the CIA there IS a 100% chance of an existential threat occurring within the next 10-20 years. Massive failure of the power grid."

There are also risks due to inadequate monitoring of existing infrastructure, e.g. the kind of thing that happens when deregulation aims to maximize profits.

Folks always like to focus on bad guy scenarios and not dangers due to environmental events, especially the variety humans cause.

Marcus

________________________________
From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of Prof David West <profwest at fastmail.fm>
Sent: Thursday, August 10, 2017 1:24:29 PM
To: friam at redfish.com
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] The apocalypse

While undoubtedly fun, all the speculation (dare I say hysteria without sounding sexist?) about a Trump induced apocalypse is kind of far fetched. Too many intermediaries twixt mouth, button, and detonation.

However, according to FEMA, the US Military, the Department of Energy, and the CIA there IS a 100% chance of an existential threat occurring within the next 10-20 years. Massive failure of the power grid.
-- Iran, Russia, China, and probably North Korea already have malware embedded in the system.
-- Major transformers have no backup (they cost 10-100 million dollars, take two years to build, and are almost all built in China)
-- Deaths by day 5 of failure will reach the 100s of thousands, if not millions.
--  By day ten, there will be no economy and no effectual government.
-- One of the highest ranked scenarios for this to occur is North Korea detonating a ship born nuke off the coast of Southern California - the nuke tuned to generate a massive EMP. And, we know they have nukes small enough to fit in a freighter. They can do this. Guam is absurd at the present.

Interestingly, none of the government agencies that are certain this event will occur within 20 years have any plans for how it will be dealt with!

davew

 BTW, the grid has been a particular interest of mine since an acquaintance caused the first major US blackout, in the early 70s, by toppling a few towers in the pacific northwest with a few sticks of dynamite.

On Thu, Aug 10, 2017, at 12:52 PM, Gillian Densmore wrote:
Budda nature, calm and a good ol' jedi  about now
Aka cooler heads tend to prevail and do some awsome stuf.

On Thu, Aug 10, 2017 at 12:03 PM, Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com<mailto:marcus at snoutfarm.com>> wrote:

"I suppose firing 4 rockets to land in NK waters? Or sending 4 drones to hover over NK? Shooting down the NK rockets would be risky, showing our hand as to effective antimissile capabilities."

The best thing would be to have people in charge that don't freak out at the slightest provocation.

"Third, we must enhance our antimissile systems and other defenses, and those of our allies, which need our reassurances more than ever."

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/10/opinion/susan-rice-trump-north-korea.html

<https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/10/opinion/susan-rice-trump-north-korea.html>

________________________________

From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com<mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com>> on behalf of Owen Densmore <owen at backspaces.net<mailto:owen at backspaces.net>>
Sent: Thursday, August 10, 2017 10:26:46 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] The apocalypse

OK, what's tit for tat with the North Korea Guam threat:

President Trump seemed to draw a red line Tuesday when he warned North Korea that continued threats against the United States would be met with “fire and fury like the world has never seen.” The next day, North Korea crossed it.

Or at least it announced, in unusually specific terms, how it could. The country’s state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on Wednesday night issued a statement that said the North is “seriously examining the plan for an enveloping strike at Guam through simultaneous fire of four Hwasong-12 intermediate-range strategic ballistic rockets in order to interdict the enemy forces on major military bases on Guam and to signal a crucial warning to the U.S.” The statement, citing the North’s Strategic Rocket Forces head General Kim Rak Gyom, added that the plan would be finished by mid-August before going to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un for approval.

“Sound dialogue is not possible with such a guy bereft of reason and only absolute force can work on him,” the general said, in apparent reference to Trump, whose ultimatum he described as a “load of nonsense.”

I suppose firing 4 rockets to land in NK waters? Or sending 4 drones to hover over NK? Shooting down the NK rockets would be risky, showing our hand as to effective antimissile capabilities.

   -- Owen

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/08/north-korea-answers-trumps-vague-threats-with-specific-ones/536433/

On Wed, Aug 9, 2017 at 9:36 PM, Gillian Densmore <gil.densmore at gmail.com<mailto:gil.densmore at gmail.com>> wrote:

I (razzingly) suggest bad summer movies or  that somehow all the Doom will some freeze in place at the same time.
Perhaps we shall some how find a bunch of tribbles, zombies, a large rock in the sky, and dinso's all at the same time and that because of the Doom Metter the'll just stay their, thus no more doom can happen.

On Wed, Aug 9, 2017 at 8:04 PM, Jochen Fromm <jofr at cas-group.net<mailto:jofr at cas-group.net>> wrote:

I doubt that North Korea has the ability to hit a tiny island like Guam in the Pacific, but it can without doubt destroy the 9 million capital Seoul near the border with weapons bought from Russia or China.

The danger of a nuclear apocalypse is greatest when the world has forgotten how dangerous these weapons of mass destruction are. Even trying to model mutually assured destruction is useless with people like Kim Jong-Un and Trump. How can he brag on Twitter about nuclear weapons? WTF ?

-J.

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