[FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation

Fri Mar 20 19:01:18 EDT 2020

Below is information I just saw from the Center for American Progress on
strategies to insure the election process can move forward.  This is in
answer to Nick's (and my) concern.

Expand opportunities for people to vote from home or at quarantine locations

States should think seriously about adopting all vote-by-mail
<https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/all-mail-elections.aspx>
elections
with vote centers or other in-person options for people who prefer or need
them. States such as Colorado, Oregon, and Washington have already
implemented all-mail elections with great success, and Hawaii will begin
implementing <https://elections.hawaii.gov/voters/hawaii-votes-by-mail/>
all-mail
voting during the 2020 elections. Another option is to adopt no-excuse
absentee voting
<https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/absentee-and-early-voting.aspx>
and
extend deadlines for requesting absentee ballots. A handful of states
have permanent
absentee voting
<https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/10/21/for-many-americans-election-day-is-already-here/>lists,
whereby every registered voter who signs up receives an absentee ballot
each election. As a precaution for upcoming elections, jurisdictions
should automatically
mail
<https://www.mcall.com/news/pennsylvania/capitol-ideas/mc-nws-pa-coronavirus-primary-election-mail-voting-20200312-rs7mnligozbv3f6m2wlrvr37ny-story.html>a
ballot to each registered voter well in advance of voting periods. Voters
should be able to return their ballots by mail or by dropping their voted
ballot off at conveniently located secure drop boxes or at drive-up,
drop-off locations. Ballot envelopes should be self-sealing to protect
<https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/election-polling-locations.html>
the
health and safety of election workers who handle absentee ballots. All
absentee ballots postmarked on or before Election Day must be counted even
if they are ultimately received days later due to postal service delays.

On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 1:56 PM Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com> wrote:

> I thought this was kind of interesting.
>
>
>
> https://us.dantelabs.com/pages/coronavirus
>
>
>
> If they were doing something like this, might be able to collect both the
> viral and human data from one sample:
>
>
>
>
> https://www.illumina.com/content/dam/illumina-marketing/documents/products/appnotes/ngs-coronavirus-app-note-1270-2020-001.pdf
>
>
>
>
>
> *From: *Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of Frank Wimberly <
> wimberly3 at gmail.com>
> *Reply-To: *The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam at redfish.com>
> *Date: *Friday, March 20, 2020 at 12:02 PM
> *To: *The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation
>
>
>
> Don't go to sleep, please
>
>
>
> I think our institutions are more robust and durable than you do.
>
>
>
> Frank
>
> ---
> Frank C. Wimberly
> 505 670-9918
> Santa Fe, NM
>
>
>
> On Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 12:55 PM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Hi, Y’all,
>
>
>
> Just got done with the FRIAM ZOOM session, which seemed to divide into two
> sessions, equally interesting, but quite different.  Session one was an
> expert discussion of the complexity dynamics of the pandemic and how
> technology could be used to maximize privacy while slowing transmission.
> Session two was an exploration of what it is actually going to be like to
> live through the next six months, and what, if anything we should be doing,
> psychologically and practically, to prepare ourselves for it.
>
>
>
> Most riveting quote of the day, perhaps more riveting because it was so
> paradoxical:
>
>
>
> “One thing you better have in mind as you plunge into a phase transition
> is a clear idea of how you want the world to look like after you come
> through it.”
>
>
>
> Most actionable suggestion of the day:
>
>
>
> Insist by every means possible that local and state election officials
> begin to plan (and practice in the primaries) a non-in-person voting system
> that will be regarded as legitimate by the general public.
>
>
>
> Personally, speaking for myself, I was left with one meta-question:
>
>
>
> How much time do we devote to trying to imagine the unimaginable.  One the
> one hand, it seems like we have to; on the otherhand, trying to do it is so
> scarey that it runs the risk of bringing all thought to a stop.
>
>
>
> I know how to handle it individually:  If I start to panic, I just climb
> into bed, imagine that I am never going to wake up, and go to sleep.  But
> conversation-wise, I am not so sure.  Perhaps agree to devote small portion
> of the conversation to catastrophic thinking, with a clear boundary?
> Assuming we can do that,  here is my suggestion for a catastrophic
> discussion:
>
>
>
> Worse than the worst predictions for the virus acting alone, are the
> consequences of the virus acting in concert with a total collapse of our
> institututions, food production, distributution, our elections, public
> order, etc. (e.g., Who is going to plant and pick the crops if the borders
> are closed?  Draft out-of-school college students?)  Our country is run by
> a gerontocracy, which, being human, will try above all to protect
> themselves. But they will mosty fail, in any case,  because they are the
> most vulnerable. What if, in their vain attempt to protect themselves, they
> bring down the whole?
>
>
>
> Ok.  Now I am going to bed.
>
>
>
> Nick
>
>
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Jon Zingale
> *Sent:* Friday, March 20, 2020 12:02 PM
> *To:* friam at redfish.com
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation
>
>
>
> At home, we are discussing the effect of the virus and the effect
>
> of social distancing on individuals that rely on soup kitchens.
>
> What strategies can Friam produce for feeding these people
>
> that is consistent with the social distancing strategy?
>
> For bonus points, please justify posted strategies with a model,
>
> or simulation.
>
>
>
> Jon
>
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>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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>

-- 
Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org
Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
merlelefkoff at gmail.com <merlelefoff at gmail.com>
mobile:  (303) 859-5609
skype:  merle.lelfkoff2
twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff
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