[FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation

Sat Mar 21 01:43:12 EDT 2020

fuck "social distancing" this "shelter in place" shit has the assumption
that we'll pull a rabbit out of our ass in 2-3 months tops. When in the
history of medicine has that ever happend? I don't want people hurt by it.
Drumming up more hysteria than the news already does isn't helping matters
either.

On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 5:01 PM Merle Lefkoff <merlelefkoff at gmail.com>
wrote:

> Below is information I just saw from the Center for American Progress on
> strategies to insure the election process can move forward.  This is in
> answer to Nick's (and my) concern.
>
> Expand opportunities for people to vote from home or at quarantine
> locations
>
> States should think seriously about adopting all vote-by-mail
> <https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/all-mail-elections.aspx> elections
> with vote centers or other in-person options for people who prefer or need
> them. States such as Colorado, Oregon, and Washington have already
> implemented all-mail elections with great success, and Hawaii will begin
> implementing <https://elections.hawaii.gov/voters/hawaii-votes-by-mail/> all-mail
> voting during the 2020 elections. Another option is to adopt no-excuse
> absentee voting
> <https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/absentee-and-early-voting.aspx> and
> extend deadlines for requesting absentee ballots. A handful of states have permanent
> absentee voting
> <https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/10/21/for-many-americans-election-day-is-already-here/>lists,
> whereby every registered voter who signs up receives an absentee ballot
> each election. As a precaution for upcoming elections, jurisdictions should automatically
> mail
> <https://www.mcall.com/news/pennsylvania/capitol-ideas/mc-nws-pa-coronavirus-primary-election-mail-voting-20200312-rs7mnligozbv3f6m2wlrvr37ny-story.html>a
> ballot to each registered voter well in advance of voting periods. Voters
> should be able to return their ballots by mail or by dropping their voted
> ballot off at conveniently located secure drop boxes or at drive-up,
> drop-off locations. Ballot envelopes should be self-sealing to protect
> <https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/election-polling-locations.html> the
> health and safety of election workers who handle absentee ballots. All
> absentee ballots postmarked on or before Election Day must be counted even
> if they are ultimately received days later due to postal service delays.
>
>
>
> On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 1:56 PM Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com>
> wrote:
>
>> I thought this was kind of interesting.
>>
>>
>>
>> https://us.dantelabs.com/pages/coronavirus
>>
>>
>>
>> If they were doing something like this, might be able to collect both the
>> viral and human data from one sample:
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> https://www.illumina.com/content/dam/illumina-marketing/documents/products/appnotes/ngs-coronavirus-app-note-1270-2020-001.pdf
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> *From: *Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of Frank Wimberly <
>> wimberly3 at gmail.com>
>> *Reply-To: *The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
>> friam at redfish.com>
>> *Date: *Friday, March 20, 2020 at 12:02 PM
>> *To: *The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
>> friam at redfish.com>
>> *Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation
>>
>>
>>
>> Don't go to sleep, please
>>
>>
>>
>> I think our institutions are more robust and durable than you do.
>>
>>
>>
>> Frank
>>
>> ---
>> Frank C. Wimberly
>> 505 670-9918
>> Santa Fe, NM
>>
>>
>>
>> On Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 12:55 PM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>> Hi, Y’all,
>>
>>
>>
>> Just got done with the FRIAM ZOOM session, which seemed to divide into
>> two sessions, equally interesting, but quite different.  Session one was an
>> expert discussion of the complexity dynamics of the pandemic and how
>> technology could be used to maximize privacy while slowing transmission.
>> Session two was an exploration of what it is actually going to be like to
>> live through the next six months, and what, if anything we should be doing,
>> psychologically and practically, to prepare ourselves for it.
>>
>>
>>
>> Most riveting quote of the day, perhaps more riveting because it was so
>> paradoxical:
>>
>>
>>
>> “One thing you better have in mind as you plunge into a phase transition
>> is a clear idea of how you want the world to look like after you come
>> through it.”
>>
>>
>>
>> Most actionable suggestion of the day:
>>
>>
>>
>> Insist by every means possible that local and state election officials
>> begin to plan (and practice in the primaries) a non-in-person voting system
>> that will be regarded as legitimate by the general public.
>>
>>
>>
>> Personally, speaking for myself, I was left with one meta-question:
>>
>>
>>
>> How much time do we devote to trying to imagine the unimaginable.  One
>> the one hand, it seems like we have to; on the otherhand, trying to do it
>> is so scarey that it runs the risk of bringing all thought to a stop.
>>
>>
>>
>> I know how to handle it individually:  If I start to panic, I just climb
>> into bed, imagine that I am never going to wake up, and go to sleep.  But
>> conversation-wise, I am not so sure.  Perhaps agree to devote small portion
>> of the conversation to catastrophic thinking, with a clear boundary?
>> Assuming we can do that,  here is my suggestion for a catastrophic
>> discussion:
>>
>>
>>
>> Worse than the worst predictions for the virus acting alone, are the
>> consequences of the virus acting in concert with a total collapse of our
>> institututions, food production, distributution, our elections, public
>> order, etc. (e.g., Who is going to plant and pick the crops if the borders
>> are closed?  Draft out-of-school college students?)  Our country is run by
>> a gerontocracy, which, being human, will try above all to protect
>> themselves. But they will mosty fail, in any case,  because they are the
>> most vulnerable. What if, in their vain attempt to protect themselves, they
>> bring down the whole?
>>
>>
>>
>> Ok.  Now I am going to bed.
>>
>>
>>
>> Nick
>>
>>
>>
>> Nicholas Thompson
>>
>> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>>
>> Clark University
>>
>> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>>
>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Jon Zingale
>> *Sent:* Friday, March 20, 2020 12:02 PM
>> *To:* friam at redfish.com
>> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation
>>
>>
>>
>> At home, we are discussing the effect of the virus and the effect
>>
>> of social distancing on individuals that rely on soup kitchens.
>>
>> What strategies can Friam produce for feeding these people
>>
>> that is consistent with the social distancing strategy?
>>
>> For bonus points, please justify posted strategies with a model,
>>
>> or simulation.
>>
>>
>>
>> Jon
>>
>> ============================================================
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>>
>> ============================================================
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>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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>>
>
>
> --
> Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
> President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy
> emergentdiplomacy.org
> Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
> merlelefkoff at gmail.com <merlelefoff at gmail.com>
> mobile:  (303) 859-5609
> skype:  merle.lelfkoff2
> twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>
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