[FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation

[Marcus Daniels]

It’s not about stalling for a treatment, it is to pace the hospital arrivals.

On Mar 20, 2020, at 10:44 PM, Gillian Densmore <gil.densmore at gmail.com> wrote:


fuck "social distancing" this "shelter in place" shit has the assumption that we'll pull a rabbit out of our ass in 2-3 months tops. When in the history of medicine has that ever happend? I don't want people hurt by it.  Drumming up more hysteria than the news already does isn't helping matters either.


On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 5:01 PM Merle Lefkoff <merlelefkoff at gmail.com<mailto:merlelefkoff at gmail.com>> wrote:
Below is information I just saw from the Center for American Progress on strategies to insure the election process can move forward.  This is in answer to Nick's (and my) concern.

Expand opportunities for people to vote from home or at quarantine locations

States should think seriously about adopting all vote-by-mail<https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/all-mail-elections.aspx> elections with vote centers or other in-person options for people who prefer or need them. States such as Colorado, Oregon, and Washington have already implemented all-mail elections with great success, and Hawaii will begin implementing<https://elections.hawaii.gov/voters/hawaii-votes-by-mail/> all-mail voting during the 2020 elections. Another option is to adopt no-excuse absentee voting<https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/absentee-and-early-voting.aspx> and extend deadlines for requesting absentee ballots. A handful of states have permanent absentee voting<https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/10/21/for-many-americans-election-day-is-already-here/>lists, whereby every registered voter who signs up receives an absentee ballot each election. As a precaution for upcoming elections, jurisdictions should automatically mail<https://www.mcall.com/news/pennsylvania/capitol-ideas/mc-nws-pa-coronavirus-primary-election-mail-voting-20200312-rs7mnligozbv3f6m2wlrvr37ny-story.html>a ballot to each registered voter well in advance of voting periods. Voters should be able to return their ballots by mail or by dropping their voted ballot off at conveniently located secure drop boxes or at drive-up, drop-off locations. Ballot envelopes should be self-sealing to protect<https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/election-polling-locations.html> the health and safety of election workers who handle absentee ballots. All absentee ballots postmarked on or before Election Day must be counted even if they are ultimately received days later due to postal service delays.


On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 1:56 PM Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com<mailto:marcus at snoutfarm.com>> wrote:
I thought this was kind of interesting.

https://us.dantelabs.com/pages/coronavirus

If they were doing something like this, might be able to collect both the viral and human data from one sample:

https://www.illumina.com/content/dam/illumina-marketing/documents/products/appnotes/ngs-coronavirus-app-note-1270-2020-001.pdf


From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com<mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com>> on behalf of Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com<mailto:wimberly3 at gmail.com>>
Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com<mailto:friam at redfish.com>>
Date: Friday, March 20, 2020 at 12:02 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com<mailto:friam at redfish.com>>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation

Don't go to sleep, please

I think our institutions are more robust and durable than you do.

Frank
---
Frank C. Wimberly
505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 12:55 PM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com<mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com>> wrote:
Hi, Y’all,

Just got done with the FRIAM ZOOM session, which seemed to divide into two sessions, equally interesting, but quite different.  Session one was an expert discussion of the complexity dynamics of the pandemic and how technology could be used to maximize privacy while slowing transmission.  Session two was an exploration of what it is actually going to be like to live through the next six months, and what, if anything we should be doing, psychologically and practically, to prepare ourselves for it.

Most riveting quote of the day, perhaps more riveting because it was so paradoxical:


“One thing you better have in mind as you plunge into a phase transition is a clear idea of how you want the world to look like after you come through it.”

Most actionable suggestion of the day:


Insist by every means possible that local and state election officials begin to plan (and practice in the primaries) a non-in-person voting system that will be regarded as legitimate by the general public.

Personally, speaking for myself, I was left with one meta-question:


How much time do we devote to trying to imagine the unimaginable.  One the one hand, it seems like we have to; on the otherhand, trying to do it is so scarey that it runs the risk of bringing all thought to a stop.


I know how to handle it individually:  If I start to panic, I just climb into bed, imagine that I am never going to wake up, and go to sleep.  But conversation-wise, I am not so sure.  Perhaps agree to devote small portion of the conversation to catastrophic thinking, with a clear boundary?  Assuming we can do that,  here is my suggestion for a catastrophic discussion:


Worse than the worst predictions for the virus acting alone, are the consequences of the virus acting in concert with a total collapse of our institututions, food production, distributution, our elections, public order, etc. (e.g., Who is going to plant and pick the crops if the borders are closed?  Draft out-of-school college students?)  Our country is run by a gerontocracy, which, being human, will try above all to protect themselves. But they will mosty fail, in any case,  because they are the most vulnerable. What if, in their vain attempt to protect themselves, they bring down the whole?

Ok.  Now I am going to bed.

Nick

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com<mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com>
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/


From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com<mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com>> On Behalf Of Jon Zingale
Sent: Friday, March 20, 2020 12:02 PM
To: friam at redfish.com<mailto:friam at redfish.com>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation

At home, we are discussing the effect of the virus and the effect
of social distancing on individuals that rely on soup kitchens.
What strategies can Friam produce for feeding these people
that is consistent with the social distancing strategy?
For bonus points, please justify posted strategies with a model,
or simulation.

Jon
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--
Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org<http://emergentdiplomacy.org>
Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
merlelefkoff at gmail.com<mailto:merlelefoff at gmail.com>
mobile:  (303) 859-5609
skype:  merle.lelfkoff2
twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff
============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
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