[FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation
Gillian Densmore
gil.densmore at gmail.com
Sat Mar 21 13:59:37 EDT 2020
@Stephen Smith
(while I find out how to a reply to the right person in Gmail):
aaaaah ok. That's what I'm concerned about with distorted information.
>From what I've heard, and read on this list it's basically the fear of the
unknown and some really smart, and clever people making as best
guesses as possible. Basically injured frogs, with as you say a lot more
drivers and having to guess what the heck to do.
Is it really also extra equipment (health buffs for that poor frog) even
archaic Negative Pressure Rooms is simply not enough?
Thanks that does help with the other side of needed perspective.
On Sat, Mar 21, 2020 at 9:48 AM Steven A Smith <sasmyth at swcp.com> wrote:
> While I'm sympathetic with the idea that the relative magnitude of this
> threat *might* be on the same order as "hit by a car", and that to the
> extent that panic behaviour has it's own risks and unintended consequences,
> I think there is a qualitative issue at hand as well.
>
>
> It is as if the number of cars on the road just doubled and some of the
> drivers come from the UK right-hand-driving sphere such that while the risk
> of death has only roughly *doubled*, our instincts are not tuned to where
> to look (left/right) when we step out into the street. Our intuitions just
> aren't well tuned to this.
>
>
> Unfortunately, quantitative numbers are exponential not linear, so even if
> you could compare it to "hit by a car", it doesn't calibrate for crazy
> fluctuations in traffic. Like being the Frog in Frogger right after a
> level-up.
>
>
> This just out from James Tamplin (founder of Firebase), providing a
> slightly finer grain model to refer to and build from:
> https://covidactnow.org/ . <https://covidactnow.org/>It is worthwhile to
> read the assumptions that this model uses. It is all transparent and
> implemented as spreadsheets that can be downloaded and tweaked if you
> choose. It is strictly statistical and aggregated at the State level, but
> does not take into account variations in population density and personal
> encounters (this is a case where the style of mixing implied by suburban
> car-culture may be a lot safer than urban pedestrian-culture).
>
>
> Mary and I have had to calibrate our sensitivity to risk several times
> during this episode.
>
> 1. We were on our way to a long overdue visit to my mother (91) in her
> assisted living where most everyone else there is older and more at-risk
> even than she is. Her TV has only one channel (Fox) and she was reluctant
> (2 weeks ago) to believe that my daughter in Portland with an 18 month old
> she hasn't met yet, really shouldn't risk gathering virus particles through
> 3 airports and 2 planes to visit her. After they waved off, we planned
> to come ahead as a consolation prize, as did my other daughter and her 8
> year old (we were both driving, avoiding high-risk virus-gathering
> opportunities). Even though we were already on the road when things
> really started looking bad (over a week ago), I was pretty sure we
> shouldn't even risk *our* bringing her anything from here or our travels,
> but was reluctant to tell her that yet. 2 days in my daughter was leaving
> Denver with two kids promised a Spring Break and we negotiated a
> back-country tour of the 4 corners area, meeting up with them, and not risk
> delivering virus particles to their great/grandmother and her friends.
> 2. After listening to towns, counties, parks, states shut their doors
> on our heels as we traveled through, we were feeling a little "guilty" by
> the time we arrived back on our fairly isolated home(stead) 20 minutes
> outside of Santa Fe. Our normal life involves at most 3 trips to *some*
> town, and even then very limited interaction with others usually. Dropping
> back to 1 very careful grocery run a week is not that big of a step for us.
> 3. We now have other semi-rural friends/neighbors trying to negotiate
> visits with us which we are trying to sort through. In our early 60s, we
> are marginally at higher risk than many, but most of those
> friends/neighbors include at least 1 member in their late 70s or even
> 80s. Their level of self-concern varies wildly from radical germophobe to
> devil-may-care libertarians. I could mix with any *one* of these
> sub-cliques comfortably if I didn't feel like I was risking
> cross-contamination between them. The highest-risk-taking groups aren't
> too high-risk for us, nor are the lowest-risk-takers too low, but I"m
> unwilling to accidentally bridge the two.
> 4. Our 5 (collectively) adult children have roughly 5 different
> circumstances and sensibilities about this pandemic. One is a virologist
> who is already engaged in working directly on the problem. Two others are
> owners of small businesses which are direct personal service (crossfit gym
> and art framing-shop) and one is a child social worker who supervises
> dozens of people whose everyday job is to do home visits with families in
> crisis... this quarantine situation puts some of those families at yet
> higher risk in several ways. The fifth just got the diagnosis (this week)
> that his wife very likely has a cancer that will need/deserve surgery AND
> chemo/rad ASAP. Juggling our advice/support across this diversity is a
> challenge, though a tiny fraction I think of what *many* have to face.
> 5. Mary is intrinsically more concerned about her personal health than
> I tend to be (about my own) which means she is moderately more healthy but
> at the same time more fragile in her concerns. She took two weeks to
> recover from a COVID_like flu with bacterial (sinus) complications just a
> month ago... had that hit a week or two later, we would have had to respond
> *as-if* it were COVID19. She did give over to a doc visit who threw
> antibiotics at her, and the secondary sinus (with fever) cleared up in
> days. I have no idea how that would have unfolded under the current
> shadows.
> 6. I just glanced through Barry's post just now and was reminded of
> the issue of Asymptomatic transmission vs what I prefer to think of as
> Presymptomatic. Presymptomatic includes some coughing and sneezing that
> you don't attribute to an illness (yet)... if you are an annual allergy
> sufferer, for example, it could be easy to assume the increased sneezing is
> an allergy (and it might be!) right up until you get hit with a fever or
> discover someone in your social network is symptomatic/positive.
>
> Blah blah,
>
> - Steve
>
> Gillian writes:
>
> "One side of that is you have a higher risk getting hit by a car than not
> making it through this, what ever it is. "
>
> In 2018 in Italy, there were 3,325 fatalities from road accidents.[1]
> There have been 4,032 fatalities from COVID-19 so far. The governor of
> California announced that 56% of the state could contract the virus.[2]
> Extrapolating that to the whole country, an uncontrolled outbreak would
> kill about 1.8 million people at a 1% fatality rate. There were 33,654
> road fatalities in the United States in 2018.
> Stay at home.
>
> Marcus
>
> [1]
> https://www.statista.com/statistics/437928/number-of-road-deaths-in-italy/
> [2] https://abc7news.com/6029302/
> [3] https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/state-by-state
>
>
> ------------------------------
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on
> behalf of Gillian Densmore <gil.densmore at gmail.com>
> <gil.densmore at gmail.com>
> *Sent:* Saturday, March 21, 2020 6:53 AM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> <friam at redfish.com> <friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation
>
> Mmm. Well. That is true our medical system is a fragile mess as is. My
> concern that I realize is a pretty unpopular opinion is a total lack of
> perspective. One side of that is you have a higher risk getting hit by a
> car than not making it through this, what ever it is. I gather the real
> issue isn't that, it's people who for what ever reason don't quite stay at
> some dry caugh cold, nasty flue like stage but then also get just nastily
> congested lungs that need sterrioids and oxygen.
> And all of that on top of a surreal amount of hyping up the negative and
> turning it into a WWF style match from media. "PANDEMIC 2000 (PANDEMIC,
> DEMIC EPIDEMIC MOOONSTER DEMIC RACING 2020!!! ALL THE...SAME SOUND BYTES
> NOW WITH MORE COWBELL!!!" I don't know if that'll read well in text.
> Anyone that was a kid of the 80s(us) and they'd have this truck rally adds
> on Saturdays and Sometimes Sundays. I imagine how that'd sound with this
> Max-Hendroomy thing of turning this epidemic into something like that. As
> if it's a 80s WWF wrestling match
>
> But then also the scientists I don't think are saying lock yourself
> inside.(yet) Pretty disturbing to call 'Eh well try to avoid people' as
> Social Distancing.
>
> On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 11:49 PM Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com>
> wrote:
>
>
> It’s not about stalling for a treatment, it is to pace the hospital
> arrivals.
>
> On Mar 20, 2020, at 10:44 PM, Gillian Densmore <gil.densmore at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>
> fuck "social distancing" this "shelter in place" shit has the assumption
> that we'll pull a rabbit out of our ass in 2-3 months tops. When in the
> history of medicine has that ever happend? I don't want people hurt by it.
> Drumming up more hysteria than the news already does isn't helping matters
> either.
>
>
> On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 5:01 PM Merle Lefkoff <merlelefkoff at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> Below is information I just saw from the Center for American Progress on
> strategies to insure the election process can move forward. This is in
> answer to Nick's (and my) concern.
>
> Expand opportunities for people to vote from home or at quarantine
> locations
>
> States should think seriously about adopting all vote-by-mail
> <https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/all-mail-elections.aspx> elections
> with vote centers or other in-person options for people who prefer or need
> them. States such as Colorado, Oregon, and Washington have already
> implemented all-mail elections with great success, and Hawaii will begin
> implementing <https://elections.hawaii.gov/voters/hawaii-votes-by-mail/> all-mail
> voting during the 2020 elections. Another option is to adopt no-excuse
> absentee voting
> <https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/absentee-and-early-voting.aspx> and
> extend deadlines for requesting absentee ballots. A handful of states have permanent
> absentee voting
> <https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/10/21/for-many-americans-election-day-is-already-here/>lists,
> whereby every registered voter who signs up receives an absentee ballot
> each election. As a precaution for upcoming elections, jurisdictions should automatically
> mail
> <https://www.mcall.com/news/pennsylvania/capitol-ideas/mc-nws-pa-coronavirus-primary-election-mail-voting-20200312-rs7mnligozbv3f6m2wlrvr37ny-story.html>a
> ballot to each registered voter well in advance of voting periods. Voters
> should be able to return their ballots by mail or by dropping their voted
> ballot off at conveniently located secure drop boxes or at drive-up,
> drop-off locations. Ballot envelopes should be self-sealing to protect
> <https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/election-polling-locations.html> the
> health and safety of election workers who handle absentee ballots. All
> absentee ballots postmarked on or before Election Day must be counted even
> if they are ultimately received days later due to postal service delays.
>
>
>
> On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 1:56 PM Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com>
> wrote:
>
> I thought this was kind of interesting.
>
>
>
> https://us.dantelabs.com/pages/coronavirus
>
>
>
> If they were doing something like this, might be able to collect both the
> viral and human data from one sample:
>
>
>
>
> https://www.illumina.com/content/dam/illumina-marketing/documents/products/appnotes/ngs-coronavirus-app-note-1270-2020-001.pdf
>
>
>
>
>
> *From: *Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of Frank Wimberly <
> wimberly3 at gmail.com>
> *Reply-To: *The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam at redfish.com>
> *Date: *Friday, March 20, 2020 at 12:02 PM
> *To: *The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation
>
>
>
> Don't go to sleep, please
>
>
>
> I think our institutions are more robust and durable than you do.
>
>
>
> Frank
>
> ---
> Frank C. Wimberly
> 505 670-9918
> Santa Fe, NM
>
>
>
> On Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 12:55 PM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Hi, Y’all,
>
>
>
> Just got done with the FRIAM ZOOM session, which seemed to divide into two
> sessions, equally interesting, but quite different. Session one was an
> expert discussion of the complexity dynamics of the pandemic and how
> technology could be used to maximize privacy while slowing transmission.
> Session two was an exploration of what it is actually going to be like to
> live through the next six months, and what, if anything we should be doing,
> psychologically and practically, to prepare ourselves for it.
>
>
>
> Most riveting quote of the day, perhaps more riveting because it was so
> paradoxical:
>
>
>
> “One thing you better have in mind as you plunge into a phase transition
> is a clear idea of how you want the world to look like after you come
> through it.”
>
>
>
> Most actionable suggestion of the day:
>
>
>
> Insist by every means possible that local and state election officials
> begin to plan (and practice in the primaries) a non-in-person voting system
> that will be regarded as legitimate by the general public.
>
>
>
> Personally, speaking for myself, I was left with one meta-question:
>
>
>
> How much time do we devote to trying to imagine the unimaginable. One the
> one hand, it seems like we have to; on the otherhand, trying to do it is so
> scarey that it runs the risk of bringing all thought to a stop.
>
>
>
> I know how to handle it individually: If I start to panic, I just climb
> into bed, imagine that I am never going to wake up, and go to sleep. But
> conversation-wise, I am not so sure. Perhaps agree to devote small portion
> of the conversation to catastrophic thinking, with a clear boundary?
> Assuming we can do that, here is my suggestion for a catastrophic
> discussion:
>
>
>
> Worse than the worst predictions for the virus acting alone, are the
> consequences of the virus acting in concert with a total collapse of our
> institututions, food production, distributution, our elections, public
> order, etc. (e.g., Who is going to plant and pick the crops if the borders
> are closed? Draft out-of-school college students?) Our country is run by
> a gerontocracy, which, being human, will try above all to protect
> themselves. But they will mosty fail, in any case, because they are the
> most vulnerable. What if, in their vain attempt to protect themselves, they
> bring down the whole?
>
>
>
> Ok. Now I am going to bed.
>
>
>
> Nick
>
>
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Jon Zingale
> *Sent:* Friday, March 20, 2020 12:02 PM
> *To:* friam at redfish.com
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation
>
>
>
> At home, we are discussing the effect of the virus and the effect
>
> of social distancing on individuals that rely on soup kitchens.
>
> What strategies can Friam produce for feeding these people
>
> that is consistent with the social distancing strategy?
>
> For bonus points, please justify posted strategies with a model,
>
> or simulation.
>
>
>
> Jon
>
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>
> ============================================================
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>
>
>
> --
> Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
> President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy
> emergentdiplomacy.org
> Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
> merlelefkoff at gmail.com <merlelefoff at gmail.com>
> mobile: (303) 859-5609
> skype: merle.lelfkoff2
> twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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>
> ============================================================
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> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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>
> ============================================================
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> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
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>
>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
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>
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> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
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