[FRIAM] unstated motivation for prediction across "phase transitions"

Mon Mar 23 12:21:17 EDT 2020

Hi, Glen, 

As you know, I have a great respect for working metaphors, in the sense of metaphors that work,in the sense of putting a metaphor to work, and in the sense of working out all the implications of a metaphor.  So I rose to your metaphor like a hungry trout. 

Remember that this dog has designed his own kennel.  It is this dog that determines the time and route of the walks, where I stop to pee, and how long I get to smell the post.  I am living in a world of my own designing.  Unless, of course, you want to make "society" the analogue for "owner" in the dog metaphor, in which case, the implication is that the choices I think I am making are only a small proportion of those that are actually being made for me.  I think I am deciding which post to pee on but in fact, it's mostly been decided for me.  But then who exactly is this "society" dude?   As we work this metaphor, which way do we want to go?  

I want somebody to tackle the paradox inherent in the notion of "planning across a phase transition".  We are molecules in the warming pot, rising and falling gently in the gentle heat from below, being knocked by our neighbors below and in turn knocking our neighbors above.  Life is good, if a little boring.  Then somebody turns on the heat below, and we feel this strange urge to line up and form ranks, some ranks marching upward toward the top of pot, some ranks returning downward.  And then somebody turns up the heat again, and our world goes crazy.  Our neighborhood is strewn all over the pot and many of us are cast out of the pot altogether.  Perhaps, if the heat remains high for very long, all of us are lost to the pot.  But perhaps, somebody comes and turns the heat down.  Again we start to form in to ranks, marching to the bottom of the pot, then returning downward, left-right, left-right.  But now those with whom we march are strangers, all the familiar faces are gone.  And when the pot goes cold, there we are, exactly as we were before, only with different neighbors.  

Isn't this the lesson of a phase transition?  Tout ca change; tous ca reste la meme?

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of u?l? ?
Sent: Monday, March 23, 2020 9:26 AM
To: FriAM <friam at redfish.com>
Subject: [FRIAM] unstated motivation for prediction across "phase transitions"

I'd mostly recovered from the conversation on Friday morning (primed by the GDoc mentioning trading freedom for safety) by last night. Then this morning, I read the article below, with a thought experiment excerpted.

The "obvious" answer the author provides: "No, of course not" is preposterous to me. Not preposterous because he's wrong. *I* would not want that life. But I try not to extrapolate my own thoughts to predict the thoughts of others. It seems clear to me that many of us *do* want that life. That's why we clamor for the ability to predict across "phase transitions" ... neurosis personified. What percentage of people would opt for the life of a well-kept pet? I have no data. But my hunch, based on pop culture, is *most* of us want that life. I'm sure it's a spectrum. A little risk, like bungee jumping, is fun. Too much risk is harrowing. So the question boils down to infrastructure (a partly-designed landscape) wherein the risk profile of each individual can settle into a risk-profile region of the landscape. But there are 2 purposes in which to think of such a landscape: 1) to make the individuals "happy" (or comfortable, or whatever) versus 2) to make the most USE of that individual.

I'm told that evolution speeds up under stress. My guess is that many of us who *want* to live like well-kept pets might, in contrast, *perform* better if they live like wild animals. If that's not a reason to welcome the phase transition, I don't know what is. The trick is that old, privileged, white people like in the Zoom meeting (including me) will be privileged enough to *retain* our lifestyles as well-kept pets, leaving the burden of speedy evolution up to those of us unprivileged enough to be pushed into risk-prone regions of the landscape. The wild dogs will be doing all the evolutionary work while the pets reap all the benefits.

Against Dog Ownership

 <https://dormin.org/2020/03/21/against-dog-ownership/> https://dormin.org/2020/03/21/against-dog-ownership/

> Imagine that you, a human, were kidnapped by aliens at birth and given an approximation of a dog’s life, and a good dog’s life at that. Ignore the subservience, dependence on a superior life form, and all the other psychological aspects of being owned and just focus on how you would feel about your material conditions.

> 

> You live in a big building that wasn’t designed for your body type nor size, but is comfortable, warm, and decently spacious. You’re given ample healthy food which tastes good, but you eat the same thing almost every day for months straight. Fortunately, you’re occasionally given cookies or brownies or whatever treat you like. Your alien owners give you little massages and talk to you in a friendly way even though you can’t understand them. Most of your time is spent in the big building, but 3-4 times per day you get to walk around outside the big alien world where you see other humans walking around too. Once per day, you go to a nice, open human field where you can play sports with other humans and maybe even make some friends. However, your balls or ovaries were removed when you were a baby, so you will never have sex, nor the desire to do so.

> 

> That is basically your life. You’re never in danger, you’re treated well, you get attention and fun (though not that much), and you’ll probably live into your 90s. Would you want this life?

> 

> No, of course not. ...

--

☣ uǝlƃ

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