[FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

Wed May 6 11:51:12 EDT 2020

Thanks, Steve, for the comment and link. 

My go-to, until the last few days, was a map the Times was putting up of
doubling time by county.  They clearly still have the data, and do produce
it by state, but I can no longer find the national map, which was showing
nicely the spread of the disease outward from urban areas.  

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

 <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com

 <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/>
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of Steven A Smith
Sent: Wednesday, May 6, 2020 9:31 AM
To: friam at redfish.com
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The
New York Times

Nick -

https://rt.live/  

helps to illustrate some of Rachel's hair-on-fire.   NOT because the
absolute numbers are (or will be) outrageous, but because the *rates* are
high.    Take a look at the states who have R0 > 1.0 ... all midwest-plains.

If you have a small town with 0 cases, it is natural to not be "too worried"
even if there are three or four small towns within 20 miles who have a case
or two...   their relative social distance from the international
airport/high-density urban *hot spots* means they are *late* to the party
AND the relatively small *absolute* numbers means their perception of the
problem is lower.   AND in fact, they might be able to tolerate higher rates
BECAUSE of the perception.   If 5 people in your community of 100 die of
COVID19 maybe that is easier to accept than if 5000 out of your 100,000 die?

I think these subtleties/subjectives that get lost in the raw statistics are
important but I don't know how to quantify them off the top of my head.

- Steve

On 5/6/20 9:24 AM, thompnickson2 at gmail.com <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com>
wrote:

Hi, Everybody

This article greatly puzzled me because it seemed to eviscerate it self in
the last few paragraphs.  

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.
html 

My main concern here is the degree to which I am being deluded by my
addiction to the Rachel Maddow Show.  She is in HairOnFire mode about an
impending epidemic in the plains states.  She is particularly caustic about
the bad judgement of plains states governors.  But if the times charts are
right, one can see (sort of) why those governors are not as alarmed as we
smarty-pantses think they ought to be.  There aren't that many people dying
full stop, even tho people ARE dying of covid.  (Not to mention that most of
the people who are dying of covid are poorish people working in meet packing
plants.)  What is this New Abnormal we seem to find ourselves in?

N

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