[FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

Wed May 6 15:08:29 EDT 2020

Roger, Glen,  Steve

Sorry.  Not one of my better posts.  I certainly didn’t mean to imply that anybody was doing fine.  I guess I began to worry that deaths in those more rural states were being masked by the fact that people were staying away from hospitals, but that doesn’t make any sense whatsoever.  I will try to wake up more before I post, in future. 

I valued Steve’s reflections on death in small rural communities.  The town where I raised my family was such a community.   Some times a year, weeks would go by between any opportunities to share information.  If somebody died in mid summer or in mid winter, it might be a month or so before I would learn it.   So, paradoxical as it might seem, I can imagine that the same rate of death might have more impact in a larger community than in a smaller one.  

I do miss that national map of case doubling time by county.  By comparing it, day by day, I got a real sense of “what was happening.”  If anybody happens on that again, please let me know.  It would, I think, confirm Roger’s Observation. 

Glen, those Hall/King comparisons are pretty dramatic.  Go Kemp! What is the population of the two counties?  

n

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

 <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com

 <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of Roger Critchlow
Sent: Wednesday, May 6, 2020 12:35 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

I read something in the past week that argued the red counties in the battleground states were showing a very bad trendline, that the rates of infection looked ready to surge, but I haven't been able to find the original source again.  It was a University researcher who was tracking county statistics.

I didn't see where Nick thought the last few paragraphs undercut the lead of the article, that some states have temporarily lost the ability to track their own vital statistics doesn't suggest that they're doing fine.

-- rec --

On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 2:17 PM uǝlƃ ☣ <gepropella at gmail.com <mailto:gepropella at gmail.com> > wrote:

Given Gov. Kemp's statement that Hall county is having trouble, I thought I'd include it in comparison to DeKalb. This also relates to the idea that Atlanta residents (mostly Dem) might tend to stick with distancing more than the surrounding (more Rep) areas.

On 5/6/20 8:51 AM, thompnickson2 at gmail.com <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com>  wrote:
> My go-to, until the last few days, was a map the Times was putting up of doubling time by county.  They clearly still have the data, and do produce it by state, but I can no longer find the national map, which was showing nicely the spread of the disease outward from urban areas. 

-- 
☣ uǝlƃ
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