[FRIAM] PSC Tornado Visualization (2008) [720p] - YouTube

[Steven A Smith]

On 5/13/20 9:52 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>
> Experiment with a modern implementation of generative adversarial
> networks for a while and I think you’ll begin to feel less smug about
> the superiority of first principles – sort of like a craft of Colonial
> Williamsburg.    Computer, just get me the equations and spare the drama.
>
My mother was the source (vehicle) of many aphorisms, some of which I
found particularly maddening.  

    "If you can't tell (the difference), it doesn't matter!"

was perhaps the most notable and I suppose an archetypal example of
vernacular pragmatism (Nick).

I *think* this discussion (or this subthread) has devolved to suggesting
that predictive power is the only use of modeling (and simulation)
whilst explanatory power is not (it is just drama?).  

It is not my feeling or experience or intuition that the explanatory
power (illusion) of deriving things from first principles is unimportant
or irrelevant, but I don't know that I have anything but "a strong
feeling" to back that up.   When I went to college I had a modestly
broad command of math and basic science which I found very satisfying as
a basis for (thinking I did) understand a lot about the world as it
unfolded around me (dust-devils, thunderstorms, motorcycle accidents,
auto mechanics, mechanical constructions) but as I learned calculus, I
somehow felt like I'd been handed a whole new toolkit... a way to peel
back the covers from the myriad equations that had been handed to me
with no real explanatory power. 

Having the equations of motion had seemed like "enough" until I began to
explore their derivations.   Most of my peers were in engineering and
while they also were learning calculus, they did not seem to have the
same fascination... they were much less interested (in my apprehension)
in "understanding things" than they were "predicting things" and even
prediction was in service to the utility of "building a thing".   In
physics, each layer of more fundamental theory, no matter how hard or
obscure it was, was very satisfying.  Again, my engineering peers were
puzzled by why I would care about relativity or quantum mechanics when
they saw so little (if any) application for it.  Of course today, nearly
50 years later, the applications are pervasive in the more advanced
engineering applications  (electrooptics, materials science, etc.)

I'll be interested to see how (if?) this distinction unfolds with others
here.   Maybe my mother was right "if you can't tell the difference, it
doesn't matter".

- Steve


>  
>
> *From: *Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of
> "thompnickson2 at gmail.com" <thompnickson2 at gmail.com>
> *Reply-To: *The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> <friam at redfish.com>
> *Date: *Wednesday, May 13, 2020 at 8:40 PM
> *To: *'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group'
> <friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] PSC Tornado Visualization (2008) [720p] - YouTube
>
>  
>
> Old Philosophical Joke:
>
>  
>
> Deep in a remote valley lived a tribe that had never been in contact
> with the modern world … except for one monastery which corresponded
> with Greenwich village to get the sunrise tables.  The monks would get
> up 15 minutes early and sound a bell, which the villagers believed was
> the cause of the sun rising.  It was said, “The monks awakened the sun
> from his slumbers.”  Because of this belief, offerings of every kind
> were left by the village on the steps of the monastery, and the monks
> grew fat and happy. 
>
>  
>
> In the course of the annual correspondence to get the new sunrise
> tables from Greenwich, one of the British scientists questioned the
> morality of the scam the monks were running.  The monks responded, “As
> long as they get their sunrise on time, who cares?”
>
>  
>
> I care.
>
>  
>
> Another old Philosophical Joke:
>
>  
>
> A man who claimed to be able to fly, announced on his facebook page
> that he was going to demonstrate his skill by jumping off the top
> balcony of a residential tower.  Psychologists were stationed at each
> balcony below with stop watches and clipboards to document his
> behavior during his “flight”.   As he went by each successive balcony
> he was heard to say, “So far, so good.” 
>
>  
>
> His widow cared.
>
>  
>
> Your query, Marcus, highlights the difference between philosophical
> pragmatism and the vernacular kind. 
>
>  
>
> Nick
>
>  
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com>
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>  
>
>  
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Marcus Daniels
> *Sent:* Wednesday, May 13, 2020 9:23 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> <friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] PSC Tornado Visualization (2008) [720p] - YouTube
>
>  
>
> Nick writes:
>
>  
>
> “The result looks so much like iconic tornado vids that we wannabee
> tornado chasers idolize that one suspects that the video was back
> constructed from that film, rather than developing organically from
> the physics.”
>
> Suppose the equations were extracted, or the behavior re-generated,
> from a deep neural net (or whatever automated machine learning thing),
> but nonetheless were predictive of other tornados.    One might
> reasonably ask, “Who cares?”
>
> Marcus
>
>
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