[FRIAM] flu versus COVID

Sat Sep 12 23:57:49 EDT 2020

Frank, do you have some pointers on the MMWR?
Thanks, Tom

On Sat, Sep 12, 2020, 7:35 PM Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com> wrote:

> It has become known today that the MMWR has been altered for political
> reasons.  At least they got caught.
>
> ---
> Frank C. Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>
> 505 670-9918
> Santa Fe, NM
>
> On Sat, Sep 12, 2020, 5:11 PM Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com> wrote:
>
>> It is the reactive grievance culture that I think needs to be
>> attenuated.    Run some diagnostics, analyze, reflect.    Or at least find
>> someone new to talk to.   Push some different information through that
>> soggy wetware.  Appreciate people that are trying to do their job.
>>  Consider the possibility that individuals (and that means you, Joe Moron)
>> don't really matter in the big scheme of things.    And so on.   If nothing
>> else just STFU for a minute, would you?  I can totally see the Rick Gates
>> type people:  Everyone is guilty and unworthy, so the only thing left to do
>> grab and handful of cash and walk away.
>>
>> How many dozens of times have I been told to lower the dimensionality of
>> what I am trying to communicate up the management chain?  If managers can't
>> grasp a complicated story, the worker bees and especially the Trumper types
>> certainly won't get it either.   In my mind democracy is more about
>> defining what is worthy about civilization and culture and finding basic
>> some basic consensus about who we want to be.   If that isn't possible,
>> then let's take off the gloves and get to it, you know?   The business of
>> running things for the most part has to be delegated, just like almost
>> every service and product we use is delegated to others.
>>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of Steve Smith
>> Sent: Saturday, September 12, 2020 3:17 PM
>> To: friam at redfish.com
>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] flu versus COVID
>>
>> Without picking directly on Dave, or using him as a proxy for or maybe
>> just a whipping boy for the folks who continue to imagine that having
>> Donald Trump and his gang of openly sycophantic and corrupt supporters in
>> his cabinet and in Congress is actually a *healthy* thing for this country,
>> I think the question of whether humans in general and US Citizens at this
>> time, are capable of anything outside of an A) Mobocracy; or B) Oligarchy
>> thinly disguised as a Representative Democracy.
>>
>> I've been guilty of being a very poor voter-citizen by one standard or
>> another and order 1/3 or more of my fellow citizens probably have a story
>> where I am a total moron/idiot because I don't agree with one or more of
>> their trigger-issues.
>>
>> And talk about persuasion/governance-by-fear:   As a registered DTR
>> (declines to respond == independent) voter I've been getting a barrage of
>> nasty garbage mail about the presidential election from the Republican
>> Party of New Mexico...  maybe they don't waste the postage on registered
>> Democrats?  Mary doesn't get these.    You can imagine the crap they insert
>> into their imagery and verbage, but  if I didn't have any other source of
>> information (or more to the point, primary evidence of Biden and his
>> allies' record and public demeanor), I'd think he (and
>> they) are everything just short of child molesters who are in the streets
>> themselves beating up cops with their own night-sticks, and that the fires
>> in Oregon are being started by them personally in Portland and blowing the
>> embers out into the forests (that Republicans would rake into safety if
>> Democrats would let them).  The photos are perspective foreshortened and
>> blue caste to make you feel like the figures shown (e.g. Biden, Bernie,
>> Kamala, AOC) are vampires looming over you the way Trump stalked and loomed
>> over Clinton at the debates.
>>
>> I don't know *any* Republicans who are afraid of COVID... well... except
>> for my hypochondriac sister and family who seem to have slowly come around
>> to have a perspective that aligns pretty well with that of the Dems, yet
>> very well may still help (try to) Vote Donald and his cronies right back
>> into power (just because?).   Sturgis the community was only 60% against
>> holding the annual HD/Trump rally there and only about 10-20% of the usual
>> attendees declined this year.   That doesn't sound like fear to me.   I
>> don't hear Biden's campaign chanting "Lock them up!" even though it seems
>> likely that The entire Trump family , his staff (present and deprecated)
>> and some of his cabinet might well be subject to criminal charges without
>> the current obfuscation, misdirection, and direct obstruction the
>> (implied/implicit?) power of the office of the President seems to allow
>> for, hiding the evidence.
>>
>> I *do* think that a solid 51% up to 60% of the population *are* very
>> scared at the quality and quantity of damage to the "America" he promised
>> to make "Great Again" if he gets another 4 years...   The Trumpsters like
>> to throw out "Trump Derangement Syndrome" left and right (and Left and
>> Right) in the attempt to characterize anyone who is offended by anything
>> (much less everything) Trump does.
>>
>> My enemy's enemies are not my friends, but it IS heartening to see the
>> significant backlash against Trumpism by many non-liberal, non-Democrat
>> factions.   The Lincoln Project might be the most well organized/funded.
>> THEY are throwing fear and loathing at Trump... and I"m sure plenty of
>> LIberals/Democrats love seeing that... and I suppose I'm just glad I don't
>> have to get my own hands dirty (possibly?) overstating Trumps outrageous
>> behaviour.
>>
>> The next 2 months (and 2.5 beyond) will surely prove to be interesting...
>>
>> - Steve
>>
>> On 9/12/20 12:42 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>> > When the populace won't tolerate this the populace won't get this.
>>  But mostly people are morons.
>> >
>> > -----Original Message-----
>> > From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of Prof David West
>> > Sent: Saturday, September 12, 2020 11:33 AM
>> > To: friam at redfish.com
>> > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] flu versus COVID
>> >
>> > Nothing in my post was intended to malign Fauci, nor attack his
>> credibility. I did attempt to call him on a specific mistake (one he may
>> have later corrected). He is not among the "powers that be."
>> >
>> > I totally stand by my accusation that "governance by fear" seems to
>> have become the default for setting policy  — fear of pornography to
>> justify repressive Web policies; fear of drugs to justify repressive
>> regulation on use; fear of crime to justify militarization of police; fear
>> of WMD to justify Iraq; fear of terror to justify TSA, fear of extinction
>> to justify carbon regulation; fear of COVID to justify lock down.
>> >
>> > I have a real problem with this trend. One, it denigrates and devalues
>> the populace as too dumb to understand the real issues, the messiness of
>> incomplete but increasing knowledge, and the complexity and provisionality
>> of solutions; two, any error, however minor, has the power to call into
>> question the whole; and three it is ultimately self-defeating.
>> >
>> > davew
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > On Sat, Sep 12, 2020, at 10:42 AM, glen∉ℂ wrote:
>> >> Never ascribe malice (or governance by fear) when incompetence will
>> >> suffice. -- paraphrased from some pithy archetype somewhere sometime.
>> >>
>> >> I was totally with you until the last 2 paragraphs, though I haven't
>> >> checked your facts. In my posts about "credibility", I tried to lay
>> >> out the idea that someone like Fauci is NOT properly labeled
>> >> [in]credible because of any single act/statement or even the truth
>> >> status of one or several acts/statements. Credibility comes from
>> >> consistent *care*, including revisiting things later and making
>> >> attempts to abut or correct previous acts/statements.
>> >>
>> >> Fauci shows such care. Therefore, Fauci is credible, even if he's made
>> mistakes.
>> >>
>> >> When you talk about ruling through fear, the real culprit is, as
>> >> EricS pointed out, the political pressure on people like Fauci to
>> >> render opinions *aligned* with some party line. To accuse Fauci of
>> >> such in light of the recent news from Woodward's book and the
>> >> pressure on CDC rank and file is disinformation. You're focus on the
>> >> victim makes your post incredible disinformation, even if (or
>> >> especially if) the first part of your post is factual. It's a typical
>> >> abuse of facts to foster a false narrative.
>> >>
>> >> But it's also important to realize we're all, always, susceptible to
>> >> such faulty reasoning. Attempts to be diligent and correct in such is
>> >> the source of credibility. I was once accused of being a spammer
>> >> because I posted too much, even though my accuser admitted the
>> >> *content* of my posts were on topic and not spam, the very volume was
>> >> offensive to him. This is yet another example of normal people's
>> >> small appetite for verbosity. Pithiness, pseudo-profound bullshit,
>> >> and false narratives are all aspects of the same beast. It's
>> >> impossible to harden ourselves to such risk without holing up in our
>> >> echo-chamber dungeons, surrounded by others who've "jumped over the
>> >> bar" to be included in our in-group.
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> On 9/12/20 7:44 AM, Prof David West wrote:
>> >>> Sloppy reporting, and sloppy pronouncements — yes, you Dr. Fauci —
>> have contaminated the discussion about COVID and appropriate responses.
>> Specifically with regard equating or improperly substituting IFR with CFR.
>> >>>
>> >>> IFR = infection fatality rate
>> >>> CFR = case fatality rate
>> >>>
>> >>> A "case"requires symptoms.
>> >>>
>> >>> Seasonal flu has an IFR of 0.1% and a CFR of 2-3%
>> >>>
>> >>> COVID has an IFR of 1.0% [initially WHO and CDC stated a higher
>> >>> percent] and a CFR of 2-3%
>> >>>
>> >>> For whatever reason, Dr Fauci and other official statements have
>> compared COVID's CFR to the flu's IFR to assert the "deadliness" of the
>> disease and to justify draconian measures.
>> >>>
>> >>> Naysayers, compare CFR to CFR to assert that COVID is no more deadly
>> than the flu. They are correct. With the "TRUTH" on their side, they rail
>> against the lock down.
>> >>>
>> >>> There is a justification for social distancing and masks in the
>> difference between IFR and IFR coupled with the higher infection rate of
>> COVID and the flu( a lot of flu immunity exists), plus the "infectious
>> phase" of 12 days (COVID) instead of 2 (flu).
>> >>>
>> >>> In my opinion the "powers that be" have such a low opinion of the
>> average intelligence of the populace that they misrepresent the data in
>> order to scare the crap out of people in order to get them to comply with
>> directives instead of making the reasonable and correct, but more nuanced
>> and complicated, factual argument for their policies.
>> >>>
>> >>> Governance by fear seems to be standard operating procedure these
>> days. 9-11 yielded the TSA abomination (expensive, ineffective and
>> annoying). Can't wait to see what COVID inflicts — especially with the talk
>> of "forced vaccinations" I have heard bandied about.
>> >>
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