[FRIAM] flu versus COVID

Sun Sep 13 00:02:49 EDT 2020

Tom

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html

On Sat, Sep 12, 2020 at 10:00 PM Tom Johnson <tom at jtjohnson.com> wrote:

> Frank, do you have some pointers on the MMWR?
> Thanks, Tom
>
> On Sat, Sep 12, 2020, 7:35 PM Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> It has become known today that the MMWR has been altered for political
>> reasons.  At least they got caught.
>>
>> ---
>> Frank C. Wimberly
>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
>> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>>
>> 505 670-9918
>> Santa Fe, NM
>>
>> On Sat, Sep 12, 2020, 5:11 PM Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> It is the reactive grievance culture that I think needs to be
>>> attenuated.    Run some diagnostics, analyze, reflect.    Or at least find
>>> someone new to talk to.   Push some different information through that
>>> soggy wetware.  Appreciate people that are trying to do their job.
>>>  Consider the possibility that individuals (and that means you, Joe Moron)
>>> don't really matter in the big scheme of things.    And so on.   If nothing
>>> else just STFU for a minute, would you?  I can totally see the Rick Gates
>>> type people:  Everyone is guilty and unworthy, so the only thing left to do
>>> grab and handful of cash and walk away.
>>>
>>> How many dozens of times have I been told to lower the dimensionality of
>>> what I am trying to communicate up the management chain?  If managers can't
>>> grasp a complicated story, the worker bees and especially the Trumper types
>>> certainly won't get it either.   In my mind democracy is more about
>>> defining what is worthy about civilization and culture and finding basic
>>> some basic consensus about who we want to be.   If that isn't possible,
>>> then let's take off the gloves and get to it, you know?   The business of
>>> running things for the most part has to be delegated, just like almost
>>> every service and product we use is delegated to others.
>>>
>>> -----Original Message-----
>>> From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of Steve Smith
>>> Sent: Saturday, September 12, 2020 3:17 PM
>>> To: friam at redfish.com
>>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] flu versus COVID
>>>
>>> Without picking directly on Dave, or using him as a proxy for or maybe
>>> just a whipping boy for the folks who continue to imagine that having
>>> Donald Trump and his gang of openly sycophantic and corrupt supporters in
>>> his cabinet and in Congress is actually a *healthy* thing for this country,
>>> I think the question of whether humans in general and US Citizens at this
>>> time, are capable of anything outside of an A) Mobocracy; or B) Oligarchy
>>> thinly disguised as a Representative Democracy.
>>>
>>> I've been guilty of being a very poor voter-citizen by one standard or
>>> another and order 1/3 or more of my fellow citizens probably have a story
>>> where I am a total moron/idiot because I don't agree with one or more of
>>> their trigger-issues.
>>>
>>> And talk about persuasion/governance-by-fear:   As a registered DTR
>>> (declines to respond == independent) voter I've been getting a barrage of
>>> nasty garbage mail about the presidential election from the Republican
>>> Party of New Mexico...  maybe they don't waste the postage on registered
>>> Democrats?  Mary doesn't get these.    You can imagine the crap they insert
>>> into their imagery and verbage, but  if I didn't have any other source of
>>> information (or more to the point, primary evidence of Biden and his
>>> allies' record and public demeanor), I'd think he (and
>>> they) are everything just short of child molesters who are in the
>>> streets themselves beating up cops with their own night-sticks, and that
>>> the fires in Oregon are being started by them personally in Portland and
>>> blowing the embers out into the forests (that Republicans would rake into
>>> safety if Democrats would let them).  The photos are perspective
>>> foreshortened and blue caste to make you feel like the figures shown (e.g.
>>> Biden, Bernie, Kamala, AOC) are vampires looming over you the way Trump
>>> stalked and loomed over Clinton at the debates.
>>>
>>> I don't know *any* Republicans who are afraid of COVID... well... except
>>> for my hypochondriac sister and family who seem to have slowly come around
>>> to have a perspective that aligns pretty well with that of the Dems, yet
>>> very well may still help (try to) Vote Donald and his cronies right back
>>> into power (just because?).   Sturgis the community was only 60% against
>>> holding the annual HD/Trump rally there and only about 10-20% of the usual
>>> attendees declined this year.   That doesn't sound like fear to me.   I
>>> don't hear Biden's campaign chanting "Lock them up!" even though it seems
>>> likely that The entire Trump family , his staff (present and deprecated)
>>> and some of his cabinet might well be subject to criminal charges without
>>> the current obfuscation, misdirection, and direct obstruction the
>>> (implied/implicit?) power of the office of the President seems to allow
>>> for, hiding the evidence.
>>>
>>> I *do* think that a solid 51% up to 60% of the population *are* very
>>> scared at the quality and quantity of damage to the "America" he promised
>>> to make "Great Again" if he gets another 4 years...   The Trumpsters like
>>> to throw out "Trump Derangement Syndrome" left and right (and Left and
>>> Right) in the attempt to characterize anyone who is offended by anything
>>> (much less everything) Trump does.
>>>
>>> My enemy's enemies are not my friends, but it IS heartening to see the
>>> significant backlash against Trumpism by many non-liberal, non-Democrat
>>> factions.   The Lincoln Project might be the most well organized/funded.
>>> THEY are throwing fear and loathing at Trump... and I"m sure plenty of
>>> LIberals/Democrats love seeing that... and I suppose I'm just glad I don't
>>> have to get my own hands dirty (possibly?) overstating Trumps outrageous
>>> behaviour.
>>>
>>> The next 2 months (and 2.5 beyond) will surely prove to be interesting...
>>>
>>> - Steve
>>>
>>> On 9/12/20 12:42 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>>> > When the populace won't tolerate this the populace won't get this.
>>>  But mostly people are morons.
>>> >
>>> > -----Original Message-----
>>> > From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of Prof David West
>>> > Sent: Saturday, September 12, 2020 11:33 AM
>>> > To: friam at redfish.com
>>> > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] flu versus COVID
>>> >
>>> > Nothing in my post was intended to malign Fauci, nor attack his
>>> credibility. I did attempt to call him on a specific mistake (one he may
>>> have later corrected). He is not among the "powers that be."
>>> >
>>> > I totally stand by my accusation that "governance by fear" seems to
>>> have become the default for setting policy  — fear of pornography to
>>> justify repressive Web policies; fear of drugs to justify repressive
>>> regulation on use; fear of crime to justify militarization of police; fear
>>> of WMD to justify Iraq; fear of terror to justify TSA, fear of extinction
>>> to justify carbon regulation; fear of COVID to justify lock down.
>>> >
>>> > I have a real problem with this trend. One, it denigrates and devalues
>>> the populace as too dumb to understand the real issues, the messiness of
>>> incomplete but increasing knowledge, and the complexity and provisionality
>>> of solutions; two, any error, however minor, has the power to call into
>>> question the whole; and three it is ultimately self-defeating.
>>> >
>>> > davew
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> > On Sat, Sep 12, 2020, at 10:42 AM, glen∉ℂ wrote:
>>> >> Never ascribe malice (or governance by fear) when incompetence will
>>> >> suffice. -- paraphrased from some pithy archetype somewhere sometime.
>>> >>
>>> >> I was totally with you until the last 2 paragraphs, though I haven't
>>> >> checked your facts. In my posts about "credibility", I tried to lay
>>> >> out the idea that someone like Fauci is NOT properly labeled
>>> >> [in]credible because of any single act/statement or even the truth
>>> >> status of one or several acts/statements. Credibility comes from
>>> >> consistent *care*, including revisiting things later and making
>>> >> attempts to abut or correct previous acts/statements.
>>> >>
>>> >> Fauci shows such care. Therefore, Fauci is credible, even if he's
>>> made mistakes.
>>> >>
>>> >> When you talk about ruling through fear, the real culprit is, as
>>> >> EricS pointed out, the political pressure on people like Fauci to
>>> >> render opinions *aligned* with some party line. To accuse Fauci of
>>> >> such in light of the recent news from Woodward's book and the
>>> >> pressure on CDC rank and file is disinformation. You're focus on the
>>> >> victim makes your post incredible disinformation, even if (or
>>> >> especially if) the first part of your post is factual. It's a typical
>>> >> abuse of facts to foster a false narrative.
>>> >>
>>> >> But it's also important to realize we're all, always, susceptible to
>>> >> such faulty reasoning. Attempts to be diligent and correct in such is
>>> >> the source of credibility. I was once accused of being a spammer
>>> >> because I posted too much, even though my accuser admitted the
>>> >> *content* of my posts were on topic and not spam, the very volume was
>>> >> offensive to him. This is yet another example of normal people's
>>> >> small appetite for verbosity. Pithiness, pseudo-profound bullshit,
>>> >> and false narratives are all aspects of the same beast. It's
>>> >> impossible to harden ourselves to such risk without holing up in our
>>> >> echo-chamber dungeons, surrounded by others who've "jumped over the
>>> >> bar" to be included in our in-group.
>>> >>
>>> >>
>>> >> On 9/12/20 7:44 AM, Prof David West wrote:
>>> >>> Sloppy reporting, and sloppy pronouncements — yes, you Dr. Fauci —
>>> have contaminated the discussion about COVID and appropriate responses.
>>> Specifically with regard equating or improperly substituting IFR with CFR.
>>> >>>
>>> >>> IFR = infection fatality rate
>>> >>> CFR = case fatality rate
>>> >>>
>>> >>> A "case"requires symptoms.
>>> >>>
>>> >>> Seasonal flu has an IFR of 0.1% and a CFR of 2-3%
>>> >>>
>>> >>> COVID has an IFR of 1.0% [initially WHO and CDC stated a higher
>>> >>> percent] and a CFR of 2-3%
>>> >>>
>>> >>> For whatever reason, Dr Fauci and other official statements have
>>> compared COVID's CFR to the flu's IFR to assert the "deadliness" of the
>>> disease and to justify draconian measures.
>>> >>>
>>> >>> Naysayers, compare CFR to CFR to assert that COVID is no more deadly
>>> than the flu. They are correct. With the "TRUTH" on their side, they rail
>>> against the lock down.
>>> >>>
>>> >>> There is a justification for social distancing and masks in the
>>> difference between IFR and IFR coupled with the higher infection rate of
>>> COVID and the flu( a lot of flu immunity exists), plus the "infectious
>>> phase" of 12 days (COVID) instead of 2 (flu).
>>> >>>
>>> >>> In my opinion the "powers that be" have such a low opinion of the
>>> average intelligence of the populace that they misrepresent the data in
>>> order to scare the crap out of people in order to get them to comply with
>>> directives instead of making the reasonable and correct, but more nuanced
>>> and complicated, factual argument for their policies.
>>> >>>
>>> >>> Governance by fear seems to be standard operating procedure these
>>> days. 9-11 yielded the TSA abomination (expensive, ineffective and
>>> annoying). Can't wait to see what COVID inflicts — especially with the talk
>>> of "forced vaccinations" I have heard bandied about.
>>> >>
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-- 
Frank Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz
Santa Fe, NM 87505
505 670-9918
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