[FRIAM] lockdowns
Steve Smith
sasmyth at swcp.com
Wed Apr 7 12:48:22 EDT 2021
EricC, et al-
I really appreciate your elaborate analysis of this (general)
phenomenon. I suspect this last year, the myriad governmental (and
NGO) responses around the world will provide a *wealth* of data for
Forensic Epidmiologists.
Not picking on DaveW particularly, I found it incredibly specious this
year every time someone (probably including myself) made an ad-hoc
comparison between an apple, a pear, and an orangatan and tried to draw
some specific conclusion from it. It always felt like clutching for
confirmation bias, maybe most painfully when I caught myself doing it.
Like your own perspective on Sweden's response, I *wanted* to believe
that a lightly populated, very socially coherent, somewhat
geographically isolated could modulate R0 through distributed, personal
decision-making with top-down/centralized "advice" and "reporting".
So I cherry picked from samples and perspectives that *appeared to be
working* while the naysayers were gleefully doing the same thing in an
opposite sense. I *want* (still) to believe that
I would claim the same for RedState BlueState players in the very same
game. I *wanted* to believe that Sturgis was the stupidest thing
anyone could do (from a public-health perspective) and that the whole
state of South Dakota (and near environs) would collapse into a Zombie
Apocalypse within a few weeks, and then as any strong-positive
correlations came up, I jumped up and down and shouted "See, See, See!"
(in my own head while shaking my tiny fist at my Large and Tiny
Screens). Same for a million other examples (various
COVID-denying/downplaying/overplaying examples with various
positive/negative feedback samples).
NickT -
I appreciate your calling this out as "why do you *want* to believe
X?". I can't remember what the questionaire was that some of us took
to yield this SnarkChart, but I think there is a correlation. I
actually think this is the wrong basis space (axes) but the
Authoritarian/Anarchist axis seems relevant. I don't know what
Left/Right imply here (Collective vs Individual Good?).
On 4/7/21 8:24 AM, Eric Charles wrote:
> We will be at least a few years post-mass-vaccination before we will
> be able to really get a handle on what worked and what didn't. As long
> as there are more waves yet to come, we cannot possibly draw firm
> conclusions about which strategies worked and which didn't.
>
> However, tentative evaluations still have value. In that veign, a
> decent New Yorker article just dropped looking at Sweden's response:
> https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/swedens-pandemic-experiment
> <https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/swedens-pandemic-experiment>
>
> One thing that stands out to me in the beginning of the New Yorker
> article is Sweden's early rhetoric arguing that any measures they take
> be based on /_evidence_/. To the extent that really played into their
> response, that is a /terrible /strategy if you find yourself in the
> midst of a pandemic. This seems like a solid William James
> Will-To-Believe issue; the choice of how to respond was live,
> unavoidable, and momentous. Doing nothing wasn't neutrally "waiting
> for evidence", it was taking a clear side, and to pretend otherwise
> couldn't be anything other than disingenuous political rhetoric.
>
> I have consistently been a fan of Sweden's response as
> a-viable-hypothesis-to-test. It WAS reasonable to hypothesize that a
> race to mass immunity would - over the long haul - result in a better
> outcome for the nation. And, as covered well towards the end of the
> New Yorker piece, it is not clear Sweden screwed up (compared with
> /averages /of countries that chose various stricter lockdowns). If you
> had pressed the pause button at certain points over the last year, it
> seemed like Sweden was horribly wrong (e.g., mid-April). If you had
> pressed the pause button at other points, it seemed like Sweden had
> achieved its goal (mid-July to mid-October averaged only 2 or 3 deaths
> per day). Until things run their course, and we have/a lot/ of time to
> look at the data, we won't know for sure. And also, even then, we need
> to remember that when-a-vaccine-would-arrive-and-how-good-it-would-be
> was an unknown, which made any decision to bank on a quick vaccine a
> big gamble.
>
>
>
>
> On Tue, Apr 6, 2021 at 11:55 PM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com
> <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com>> wrote:
>
> Hi, Dave,
>
> Am I allowed to answer the same email twice? Well, I guess we'll
> see.
>
> I cannot imagine states more different than north Dakota and
> Connecticut. Ct is 48th in size, 4th in density, and was next to
> two of the early hot spots. North Dakota is 17th in size, and
> 49th in density and was late to the party. ND is first in total
> cases per population, CT is 24th. You're trolling me, right?
> Omigosh. I've been pranked.
>
> Still, I want to know -- NOT a rhetorical question -- why you WANT
> to believe that public health measures don't work.
>
> Nick
>
>
>
>
> Nick Thompson
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
> <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com
> <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com>> On Behalf Of J Dalessandro
> Sent: Tuesday, April 6, 2021 8:24 PM
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> <friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com>>
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] lockdowns
>
> Sorry, but my experience in Australia was/is much different. Lock
> down and serious penalties greatly reduced community transmitted
> cases. Early intervention and penalties was key.
>
> //Joe
>
>
> ---
> j03d at photonmail.com <mailto:j03d at photonmail.com>
>
>
> ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ Original Message ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐
> On Tuesday, March 16, 2021 8:56 AM, Prof David West
> <profwest at fastmail.fm <mailto:profwest at fastmail.fm>> wrote:
>
> > the AP published a study that seems to demonstrate lock downs
> had no effect on Corona spread. South Dakota and Connecticut
> (small states) had very similar outcomes despite widely variant
> degree of lock down. So too Florida and California, the latter
> draconian while the former laissez-faire.
> >
> > Of course all the usual caveats applicable to such studies apply.
> >
> > I wonder if any country/state would dare to do an honest
> cost-benefit study?
> >
> > davew
> >
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