[FRIAM] lockdowns

[Eric Charles]

We will be at least a few years post-mass-vaccination before we will be
able to really get a handle on what worked and what didn't. As long as
there are more waves yet to come, we cannot possibly draw firm conclusions
about which strategies worked and which didn't.

However, tentative evaluations still have value. In that veign, a decent
New Yorker article just dropped looking at Sweden's response:
https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/swedens-pandemic-experiment
<https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/swedens-pandemic-experiment>
<echarles at american.edu>

One thing that stands out to me in the beginning of the New Yorker article
is Sweden's early rhetoric arguing that any measures they take be based on
*evidence*. To the extent that really played into their response, that
is a *terrible
*strategy if you find yourself in the midst of a pandemic. This seems like
a solid William James Will-To-Believe issue; the choice of how to respond
was live, unavoidable, and momentous. Doing nothing wasn't neutrally
"waiting for evidence", it was taking a clear side, and to pretend
otherwise couldn't be anything other than disingenuous political rhetoric.

I have consistently been a fan of Sweden's response as
a-viable-hypothesis-to-test. It WAS reasonable to hypothesize that a race
to mass immunity would - over the long haul - result in a better outcome
for the nation. And, as covered well towards the end of the New Yorker
piece, it is not clear Sweden screwed up (compared with *averages *of
countries that chose various stricter lockdowns). If you had pressed the
pause button at certain points over the last year, it seemed like Sweden
was horribly wrong (e.g., mid-April). If you had pressed the pause button
at other points, it seemed like Sweden had achieved its goal (mid-July to
mid-October averaged only 2 or 3 deaths per day). Until things run their
course, and we have* a lot* of time to look at the data, we won't know for
sure. And also, even then, we need to remember that
when-a-vaccine-would-arrive-and-how-good-it-would-be was an unknown, which
made any decision to bank on a quick vaccine a big gamble.




On Tue, Apr 6, 2021 at 11:55 PM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:

> Hi, Dave,
>
> Am I allowed to answer the same email twice?  Well, I guess we'll see.
>
> I cannot imagine states more different than north Dakota and Connecticut.
> Ct is 48th in size, 4th in density, and was next to two of the early hot
> spots.  North Dakota is 17th in size, and 49th in density and was late to
> the party.  ND is first in total cases per population, CT is 24th.  You're
> trolling me, right?  Omigosh.  I've been pranked.
>
> Still, I want to know -- NOT a rhetorical question -- why you WANT to
> believe that public health measures don't work.
>
> Nick
>
>
>
>
> Nick Thompson
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of J Dalessandro
> Sent: Tuesday, April 6, 2021 8:24 PM
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com>
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] lockdowns
>
> Sorry, but my experience in Australia was/is much different.  Lock down
> and serious penalties greatly reduced community transmitted cases.  Early
> intervention and penalties was key.
>
> //Joe
>
>
> ---
> j03d at photonmail.com
>
>
> ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ Original Message ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐
> On Tuesday, March 16, 2021 8:56 AM, Prof David West <profwest at fastmail.fm>
> wrote:
>
> > the AP published a study that seems to demonstrate lock downs had no
> effect on Corona spread. South Dakota and Connecticut (small states) had
> very similar outcomes despite widely variant degree of lock down. So too
> Florida and California, the latter draconian while the former laissez-faire.
> >
> > Of course all the usual caveats applicable to such studies apply.
> >
> > I wonder if any country/state would dare to do an honest cost-benefit
> study?
> >
> > davew
> >
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