[FRIAM] lockdowns

Wed Apr 7 14:58:51 EDT 2021

There was Redfield’s claim on CNN that the U.S. got hit hard because Americans are fat (as well as stupid).   That actually has the ring of truth.

From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of Prof David West
Sent: Wednesday, April 7, 2021 11:13 AM
To: friam at redfish.com
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] lockdowns

Nick,

First and and with strong emphasis: I do NOT "want to believe that public health measures don't work." Never said so, never implied so.

The public health measures, and in particular the lock downs, taken in response to COVID were guesswork — informed guesses perhaps, but still guesses. The rhetoric to the contrary — "we will do what the science tells us" — were nonsense if the utterers actually believed what they were saying, and intentional — "for your own good" — falsehoods if not.

Which brings us to the "fear" issue you raised. The only way, so the politicians seem to believe, to mobilize the masses to do something that they would not normally want to do is to terrorize them.

I am completely skeptical that any "scientific" public health measures will result from this pandemic. Too much political CYA, too little real data for real scientists to work with, too many variables.

Perhaps, my personal actions are the foundation for your assertion about my public health beliefs. I did the best job I could to determine my personal risk in my personal context and based my actions accordingly. I took into account what the "experts had to say," but critically and with, what counts for me, some common sense.

I was not trolling or pranking you; merely repeating a study reported in the mainstream media. Glen suggested that the authors of that study were biased to the conclusions because they had argued against lock downs before. May be true, I don't know. Whether they "controlled" for the variables you noted and whether or not what they had to say was accurate at a particular point in time but not later. Don't know.

Why did you pick CN and ND and ignore CA and FL?

davew

[BTW: If you are 49th in population density, why do you need hard lock downs? it would seem that social distancing is a given in some very real sense. Maybe all those bikers at Sturgis went home via ND and dropped the virus off on the way and that is why they were late to the party.]

On Tue, Apr 6, 2021, at 9:48 PM, thompnickson2 at gmail.com<mailto:thompnickson2%40gmail.com> wrote:
> Hi, Dave,
>
> Am I allowed to answer the same email twice?  Well, I guess we'll see.
>
> I cannot imagine states more different than north Dakota and
> Connecticut.  Ct is 48th in size, 4th in density, and was next to two
> of the early hot spots.  North Dakota is 17th in size, and 49th in
> density and was late to the party.  ND is first in total cases per
> population, CT is 24th.  You're trolling me, right?  Omigosh.  I've
> been pranked.
>
> Still, I want to know -- NOT a rhetorical question -- why you WANT to
> believe that public health measures don't work.
>
> Nick
>
>
>
>
> Nick Thompson
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com<mailto:ThompNickSon2%40gmail.com>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com<mailto:friam-bounces%40redfish.com>> On Behalf Of J Dalessandro
> Sent: Tuesday, April 6, 2021 8:24 PM
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com<mailto:friam%40redfish.com>>
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] lockdowns
>
> Sorry, but my experience in Australia was/is much different.  Lock down
> and serious penalties greatly reduced community transmitted cases.
> Early intervention and penalties was key.
>
> //Joe
>
>
> ---
> j03d at photonmail.com<mailto:j03d%40photonmail.com>
>
>
> ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ Original Message ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐
> On Tuesday, March 16, 2021 8:56 AM, Prof David West
> <profwest at fastmail.fm<mailto:profwest%40fastmail.fm>> wrote:
>
> > the AP published a study that seems to demonstrate lock downs had no effect on Corona spread. South Dakota and Connecticut (small states) had very similar outcomes despite widely variant degree of lock down. So too Florida and California, the latter draconian while the former laissez-faire.
> >
> > Of course all the usual caveats applicable to such studies apply.
> >
> > I wonder if any country/state would dare to do an honest cost-benefit study?
> >
> > davew
> >
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