[FRIAM] I am accepting wagers

[Marcus Daniels]

It doesn’t seem to say much, just links to the usual state authorities and other crowdsourcing efforts.  But look at their young, bright shining faces?

From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of Barry MacKichan
Sent: Monday, March 15, 2021 9:25 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] I am accepting wagers


Sorry, looks like it has been done 😳.

See https://www.seas.harvard.edu/news/2021/03/demystifying-vaccination-procedures?utm_source=SilverpopMailing&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Daily%20Gazette%2020210315b%20(1)

It might be interesting to see how close to useful this comes.

—Barry.

On 13 Mar 2021, at 13:05, Prof David West wrote:

Biden promised a Federal Website to give citizens easy an accurate access to vaccination appointments. Fully operational May 1, date that all Americans wishing a vaccine/vaccination will be able to obtain one.

Assume 50,000 vaccination sites, 50, 15-minute, time slots per day and, at that time, a maximum of 150 million clients.

There are several people on this list who, I believe, could build this Website over the course of a weekend, including UE (user experience) elements like Google Maps for site locations, and install it on a cloud server for volume scaling/descaling. Allow a month to collect data - the only thing really problematic is a list of sites, addresses, and operational hours (to constrain the daily calendar slots).

Total cost: < $25,000 ($500 hr - you folks deserve this pay rate - for 40-50 hours)

Now the wager: I bet that the feds will contract with a major software development corporation for development. Contract will be in the range of 5 and 10 million dollars; there is a 50% chance the site will be late or deployed with partial functionality; there is a 20% chance that it will be as dramatic a failure upon debut as was the healthcare.gov site.

Risk is two beverages of your/my choice — payable when next we can share a physical presence.

davew



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