[FRIAM] FW: Covid-Lancet-PART-2 (002).doc
Steve Smith
sasmyth at swcp.com
Sat May 8 02:13:04 EDT 2021
On 5/6/21 3:02 PM, Pieter Steenekamp wrote:
> I know I run the risk of responses like "it's Pollyanna, oh sorry I
> mean Pieter, again", but I'll take the risk and share the link with
> the speculation about technological progress with mRNA vaccines that
> will end pandemics like covid.
> https://reason.com/video/2021/05/06/why-covid-19-may-be-the-last-pandemic/
> <https://reason.com/video/2021/05/06/why-covid-19-may-be-the-last-pandemic/>
>
The inner-antagonist to my inner Luddite *wants* very much to believe
this could be true, the tech has been evolving so quickly on this front
I haven't even taken the time/effort to ask my Virologist (Flavi not
Corona) daughter about these assertions/speculations.
My growls about hypertechno-philic/utopian things are maybe aggravated
by the fact that I was once very much in that camp (there is one more
judgemental about smoking than a former smoker?). I really did (want
to?) believe that we could outrun the crashing wave of unintended
consequences collapsing behind us (if we dared look in our rear view
mirrors) from our *previous* techno-solutions.
I'm not trying to predict, for example, that there will be any specific
unintended consequences of widespread advanced mRNA vaccines being
developed maybe specifically *because* we had a COVID pandemic in 2020
(did COVID do us a solid by threatening us so relatively (existentially)
mildly?). I DO accept Glen's point (riffed off Dave's question) that
techno-cultural evolution is a valid way to adapt (and likely the
dominant one?) to a (wildly?) changing biosphere (and/or
climate-sphere). I just can't let go of my suspicion (bias, paranoia?)
that it is so much easier to ignore unknown risks than it is to
accept/face the known ones, that we are literally constantly Red
Queening our way along, thinking we are getting aheader and aheader when
in some ways we are doing perhaps just the opposite.
I appreciate some of the quantitative facts that come with the likes of
Pinker or Kotler/Diamandis (Abundance) and have a hard time not
acknowledging the miracles of modern medicine, food production, energy
distribution HAVE raised the quality of life for many if not most in
this world. But I'm not sure that the consequences (exponential
population growth, widespread species collapse, deforestation, ocean
acidification, climate change) are balanced by that good. I sense that
the built in systemic delays are such that by the time we notice a
consequence of any one of these things that we are too invested in the
cause to acknowledge the effect, and in some cases (Greenland Ice Sheet
anyone?) we may well be past tipping points *even if* we could abruptly
blunt the drivers acutely.
>
> On Thu, 6 May 2021 at 22:34, <thompnickson2 at gmail.com
> <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com>> wrote:
>
> Thanks, Peiter,
>
>
>
> At 83, we are fully vaccinated, and although we have changed our
> behavior very little, we breath easier. You have that to look
> forward to.
>
>
>
> Nic
>
>
>
> Nick Thompson
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com>
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
> <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/>
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com
> <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com>> *On Behalf Of *Pieter Steenekamp
> *Sent:* Thursday, May 6, 2021 2:24 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> <friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com>>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] FW: Covid-Lancet-PART-2 (002).doc
>
>
>
> */ is it true that the matter simply stands with the Hah-vud
> studies retracted, and nothing more said? That doesn’t seem right./*
>
>
>
> I just don't know.
>
> I speculated that the topic was just way too politicized to get to
> the bottom of it without spending serious time and effort on it
> and I chose not to do that.
>
> On a personal note, we don't yet have vaccinations in South
> Africa, my wife and I are each having daily doses of Quercetin, a
> natural over-the-counter version of Hydroxychloroquine, and
> vitamin D and Zinc and a couple of other immune boosters too.
>
>
>
> On Thu, 6 May 2021 at 21:46, <thompnickson2 at gmail.com
> <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com>> wrote:
>
> Thanks, Pieter,
>
>
>
> Interesting. As somebody who has followed the research, is it
> true that the matter simply stands with the Hah-vud studies
> retracted, and nothing more said? That doesn’t seem right.
>
>
>
> Nick
>
>
>
> Nick Thompson
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com>
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
> <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/>
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com
> <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com>> *On Behalf Of *Pieter
> Steenekamp
> *Sent:* Thursday, May 6, 2021 1:12 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> <friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com>>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] FW: Covid-Lancet-PART-2 (002).doc
>
>
>
> I'm not particularly fond of Donald Trump, but the elephant in
> the room is that Hydroxychloroquine became well-known after
> Trump advocated it. At the time I followed and researched it a
> bit and I came to the conclusion that both the mainstream
> media and the medical industry were against
> Hydroxychloroquine mainly because Trump actively advocated it.
> The Lancet saga certainly did not influence me to change
> that conclusion.
>
>
>
> On Thu, 6 May 2021 at 19:52, Frank Wimberly
> <wimberly3 at gmail.com <mailto:wimberly3 at gmail.com>> wrote:
>
> This does not seem interesting to me. The vaccines have
> been demonstrated to be effective and safe to very large
> degrees based on many millions of inoculations. Why
> should I care about some suspect studies with small n.
>
> ---
> Frank C. Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>
> 505 670-9918
> Santa Fe, NM
>
>
>
> On Thu, May 6, 2021, 11:33 AM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com
> <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com>> wrote:
>
> Dear Phellow Phriammers,
>
>
>
> I have noted that most of what I have written here of
> late has been ignored, and that’s ok, actually.
> Usually, it is the possibility that you MIGHT read
> what I write that keeps me writing and, behaviorist to
> the last, writing is what I need to do in order to
> think.
>
>
>
> But this situation is different. I really don’t know
> what to think about Pavlovic’s
> <https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Dragan-Pavlovic-4>
> paper. There may have been some trouble with the
> cloud version, so I have attached it to this message.
>
>
>
> So, this is a case where I really need some help. I
> realize that you are all engaged in this excellent
> correspondence about UBI, which has revealed all sorts
> of “-ists” that I never thought were alive and well in
> the world, let alone in this group. I would not
> interfere with that for a second. But, could a few of
> you take a look at his paper
> <https://1drv.ms/w/s!AptIKbsAd7gjllccpq9yXXQ4hb2N?e=HCzjaV>
> (very short, a commentary, actually). I think he is
> actually a candidate for this group. He is an MD,
> Phd, anaesthesiologist, retired in Paris, who has
> participated in hundreds of scientific papers, who is
> passionate ( I worry, perhaps sometimes a bit too
> passionate) about dozens of different things and
> suspicious of everything. He wants, for instance, to
> dig a gigantic tunnel to bring large ships directly
> from the danube to the Mediterranean.
>
>
>
> I, of course, live in a bubble, but I don’t like to
> have that fact thrust in my face as powerfully as when
> he reveals to me that the two HAAA=VUD papers
> denouncing Chloquoroquine were retracted a year ago,
> and I never found out. I can’t get any sense of
> whether there has been any attempt to revive them or
> to redo the original clinical study that suggested
> HCQ’s efficacy against CoVid.
>
>
>
> Any little bit of help you could give me would be great.
>
>
>
> Nick
>
>
>
> Nick Thompson
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com>
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
> <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/>
>
>
>
> *From:* thompnickson2 at gmail.com
> <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com>
> <thompnickson2 at gmail.com
> <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com>>
> *Sent:* Wednesday, May 5, 2021 9:48 PM
> *To:* 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee
> Group' <friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com>>
> *Cc:* 'Prof David West' <profwest at fastmail.fm
> <mailto:profwest at fastmail.fm>>
> *Subject:* Covid-Lancet-PART-2 (002).doc
>
>
>
> Dear Colleagues,
>
>
>
> I attach a paper
> <https://1drv.ms/w/s!AptIKbsAd7gjllccpq9yXXQ4hb2N?e=HCzjaV>
> written by an internet acquaintance I made some years
> back, Dragan Pavlovic. I am sending it along for two
> reasons. First, it reveals (to me, at least) that the
> two negative studies on Hydroxychloroquine use in
> SARS-CoVid-19 treatment were based on unverified data
> and were withdrawn by their authors almost
> immediately. (Have the rest of you known this for the
> last year and not told me? I cannot believe, after we
> pilloried poor Dave for advocating for it, that he has
> not gloated about it. ) Second, Pavlovic raises the
> intension/extension distinction in the context of the
> interpretation of scientific results and also
> questions Randomized Control Trials as the "Gold
> Standard" for discovery. Thus, I think he is a kindred
> spirit, being a bit of a grumpy contrarian like many
> of us here. I have promised to forward any comments
> you make to him, so be polite but speak truth.
>
>
>
> Thanks,
>
>
>
> Nick Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com>
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
> <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
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