[FRIAM] "epistemic status"

[Steve Smith]

On 9/29/21 7:26 AM, uǝlƃ ☤>$ wrote:
> Do you know what you know?
> A Confidence Calibration Exercise
> http://confidence.success-equation.com/

I share Glen's interest in retaking such a test under different personal
contexts.   I found some of the questions seemingly a little disingenous
and was surprised by the modest number that were easy to answer with
high confidence.  A randomly selected set from a larger group might give
me a slightly different mix of these.

Unsurprisingly (to me if not everyone), my Percent Correct was lower
than Glen's while my Confidence was higher.

The only thing I feel a little proud of was that most of my high
confidence answers were in fact correct.

I think I might have gotten better scores if I'd followed an intuition
that the questions were worded to yield an equal distribution of
true/false questions... I definitely allowed my own optimistic nature to
bias toward answering "yes" rather than "no" when I had low
confidence.   A second pass through the questions with that in mind
would probably have had me flipping some of my low-confidence "true"s to
low confidence "false"s.  Maybe this is an incorrect assumption about
the design of the test.

I may take it again to see if that improves my hit rate...   I think my
performance *would* be skewed by having seen the evaluation...  knowing
that a few of my high confidence answers were *wrong* will surely yield
a few more "hedged bets" there...   if I study the results with an eye
to improving my scores, I can probably recognize a few other systematic
areas for improvement.

>
> "After answering each of the true/false questions below, indicate how confident you are in your answer using the corresponding slider. A value of 50% means you have no idea what the right answer is (the same probability as a random guess between the two choices); a value of 100% means you are completely confident in your answer."
>
> It seems to present the same questions each time, which is a shame. I'd love to try it fully alert. But my attempt at 4am, with an irritating headache, turned out this way:
>
> Mean confidence: 61.60%
> Actual percent correct: 78.00%
> You want your mean confidence and actual score to be as close as possible.
> Mean confidence on correct answers: 63.59%
> Mean confidence on incorrect answers: 54.55%
> You want your mean confidence to be low for incorrect answers and high for correct answers.
>
> Quiz score
> 39 correct out of 50 questions answered (78.00%)
> 27 correct out of 38 questions answered with low (50 or 60%) confidence (71.05%)
> 5 correct out of 5 questions answered with medium (70% or 80%) confidence (100.00%)
> 7 correct out of 7 questions answered with high (90 or 100%) confidence (100.00%)
>
>
>
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