[FRIAM] "epistemic status"

[Steve Smith]

I retook the test back-to-back and was a little surprised by the results: 

 1. I did increase my high confidence correct answers marginally
    (unsurprising)
     1. This means I still got a few dead wrong.
 2. I did lower my overall confidence.
     1. no-brainer after seeing how overconfident I was first time around
 3. I lowered my overall correct answers (this is the surprise).
     1. not sure what this is about, trying too hard to "flip" my
        guesses and getting them wrong?
     2. both times, I got 100% of my 50% confidence answers correct (3
        or 4 of them?)

I would have probably been more better at improving my results if I'd
paid more attention the first time to how I answered the low-confidence
questions...  even though I was "guessing" I quoted a higher-than-50%
confidence.. Sounds dumb huh?


>> Do you know what you know?
>> A Confidence Calibration Exercise
>> http://confidence.success-equation.com/
>
> I share Glen's interest in retaking such a test under different
> personal contexts.   I found some of the questions seemingly a little
> disingenous and was surprised by the modest number that were easy to
> answer with high confidence.  A randomly selected set from a larger
> group might give me a slightly different mix of these.
>
> Unsurprisingly (to me if not everyone), my Percent Correct was lower
> than Glen's while my Confidence was higher.
>
> The only thing I feel a little proud of was that most of my high
> confidence answers were in fact correct.
>
> I think I might have gotten better scores if I'd followed an intuition
> that the questions were worded to yield an equal distribution of
> true/false questions... I definitely allowed my own optimistic nature
> to bias toward answering "yes" rather than "no" when I had low
> confidence.   A second pass through the questions with that in mind
> would probably have had me flipping some of my low-confidence "true"s
> to low confidence "false"s.  Maybe this is an incorrect assumption
> about the design of the test.
>
> I may take it again to see if that improves my hit rate...   I think
> my performance *would* be skewed by having seen the evaluation... 
> knowing that a few of my high confidence answers were *wrong* will
> surely yield a few more "hedged bets" there...   if I study the
> results with an eye to improving my scores, I can probably recognize a
> few other systematic areas for improvement.
>
>> "After answering each of the true/false questions below, indicate how confident you are in your answer using the corresponding slider. A value of 50% means you have no idea what the right answer is (the same probability as a random guess between the two choices); a value of 100% means you are completely confident in your answer."
>>
>> It seems to present the same questions each time, which is a shame. I'd love to try it fully alert. But my attempt at 4am, with an irritating headache, turned out this way:
>>
>> Mean confidence: 61.60%
>> Actual percent correct: 78.00%
>> You want your mean confidence and actual score to be as close as possible.
>> Mean confidence on correct answers: 63.59%
>> Mean confidence on incorrect answers: 54.55%
>> You want your mean confidence to be low for incorrect answers and high for correct answers.
>>
>> Quiz score
>> 39 correct out of 50 questions answered (78.00%)
>> 27 correct out of 38 questions answered with low (50 or 60%) confidence (71.05%)
>> 5 correct out of 5 questions answered with medium (70% or 80%) confidence (100.00%)
>> 7 correct out of 7 questions answered with high (90 or 100%) confidence (100.00%)
>>
>>
>>
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