[FRIAM] [EXT] News Alert: Most young men are single. Most young women are not.
Steve Smith
sasmyth at swcp.com
Wed Feb 22 17:04:09 EST 2023
In a very limited and somewhat ad-hoc (latin hypercube of 10 samples of
5 variables) ensemble study (100,000 samples) I did with an NREL
colleague in 2019 using the World3 Model we found a very ad-hoc
observation that among the various ideas of what was a "good outcome" in
2100 (like GDP/person or other vernacular ideas of "quality of life")
that virtually *all* of them involved a sooner-rather-than-later
population collapse.
To the extent that Modeling (in general), SD modeling more particularly
and the World3 model in particular I wasn't very inclined to take the
quantitative results of any of very seriously but it was an interesting
(but unsurprising) qualitative result?
For anyone interested in an interactive web implementation to dork with
yourself:
https://insightmaker.com/insight/2pCL5ePy8wWgr4SN8BQ4DD/The-World3-Model-Classic-World-Simulation
FWIW I dorked around with it in honor of Jimmy Carter's recent admission
to a hospice program... looking at what it might have meant if we'd
followed his lead back around 1978. Worth noting, I (foolishly by
hindsight) helped run him out of town to be replaced with Ronnie Raygun
... "drill baby drill, burn baby burn!"
And an excerpt from a recent (2020) update synopsis of the Limits to
Growth project/idea/model/results:
<https://mahb.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/yale-publication-1.pdf>
Worth noting: The population drops in BAU/BAU2 (Biznezz as Usual)
represent increased death rates rather than reduced fertility rates.
The bigger (or smaller by another measure) question of what decisions
anyone of us might make (for ourselves, our progeny, our friends,
whatever policy-making is in our jurisdiction, in our imagination) is a
much trickier one based on myriad principles/values that likely few of
us share unless we choose a high dimension-reduction strategy (e.g.
single-issue conception). My parents were overtly ZPG advocates and I
have one sister which lead me to feel plenty "done" after 2 children
myself. Each of my 2 have chosen to only have 1. Many of my friends
have chosen to be childless. Most of my peers who were from large
sibling groups have at best a replacement cohort among their children
and nieces/nephews which are headed toward a NPG in the following
generation.
My current heuristic is that if I want my grandchildren to reproduce, I
need to get out of the way which means unless their other grandparents
don't have the grace of knocking off by the time they want to do that,
then it is up to me... no open-ended life-extension unless I expect to
leave the planet (hear my pain Elon?) I don't think the World3 has
been updated to be a Sol model and even considering it really challenges
the very structure/concept of the World3 SD model!
Most of the population growth models I've run into suggest that we might
be on our way to(ward) ZPG with many regions going into NPG, but not
until we pass 10B. I don't know that *any* of them factor in the
non-linear effects of possible/likely runaway global warming or species
collapse.
On 2/22/23 11:53 AM, Santafe wrote:
> Yeah. Bill Rees and Meghan Seibert want 90% of us to die
> https://www.realgnd.org/people
> (or a position paper somewhere in their writings).
>
> On their people page, you can see what happy ecologists they are, and BIll is a friendly old grandfather with a beard.
>
> I shouldn’t be snotty. I think they are actually very tortured about their dictum that 90% of us should die. And I think in some sense they are committed, good people.
>
> But I put them up here, because somehow people collapsing under decades of frustration seem to develop a misanthropy that causes them to forget It’s Not All About You (and how tortured you are, being the only truth-teller in a lonely world). If you really care about the thing you say, then it should eclipse your own self-importance enough that you just stay focused on the task.
>
> I don’t know in how far their positions turn out to represent solid numbers. Maybe some part of it. But I have said that before.
>
> Eric
>
>
>> On Feb 22, 2023, at 1:06 PM, Gary Schiltz<gary at naturesvisualarts.com> wrote:
>>
>> A few really do want our species to go extinct, but many believe that we are already overpopulated and need to level off or reduce population. I lean only slightly toward the latter.
>>
>> On Wed, Feb 22, 2023 at 12:51 PM Frank Wimberly<wimberly3 at gmail.com> wrote:
>> Agreed. But if we don't construct any new ones and the existing ones all die (they will) we will run out. Is that a reasonable goal?
>>
>> On Wed, Feb 22, 2023 at 10:20 AM glen<gepropella at gmail.com> wrote:
>> We do not need more people. We have plenty of people. Please stop constructing people. >8^D
>>
>> On 2/22/23 09:16, Frank Wimberly wrote:
>>> I am worried however. I have two grandsons in their 20s. Each has a girlfriend. Those young women want nothing to do with babies. I assume they have younger siblings. I hope that as they enter their 30s their attitudes will change because of the realization that they are running out of time.
>>>
>>> ---
>>> Frank C. Wimberly
>>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
>>> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>>>
>>> 505 670-9918
>>> Santa Fe, NM
>>>
>>> On Wed, Feb 22, 2023, 10:08 AM Santafe <desmith at santafe.edu <mailto:desmith at santafe.edu>> wrote:
>>>
>>> I think the keyword was young.
>>>
>>> You can do that if the old men are all married to young women.
>>>
>>> > On Feb 22, 2023, at 12:02 PM, Nicholas Thompson <thompnickson2 at gmail.com <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com>> wrote:
>>> >
>>> > Last time I checked, the average number of attached males has to equal the average number of attached females, unless, of course, females, feel attached to men who don’t feel attached.
>>> >
>>> > Sent from my Dumb Phone
>>> >
>>> > Begin forwarded message:
>>> >
>>> > From: The Hill <thehill at email.thehill.com <mailto:thehill at email.thehill.com>>
>>> > Date: February 22, 2023 at 7:01:34 AM MST
>>> > To:nthompson at clarku.edu <mailto:nthompson at clarku.edu>
>>> > Subject: [EXT] News Alert: Most young men are single. Most young women are not.
>>> > Reply-To:emailteam at thehill.com <mailto:emailteam at thehill.com>
>>> >
>>> >
>>> > View Online
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> > Most young men are single. Most young women are not.
>>> > More than 60 percent of young men are single, nearly twice the rate of unattached young women, signaling a larger breakdown in the social, romantic and sexual life of the American male.
>>> >
>>> > Read the full story here.
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
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>> --
>> ꙮ Mɥǝu ǝlǝdɥɐuʇs ɟᴉƃɥʇ' ʇɥǝ ƃɹɐss snɟɟǝɹs˙ ꙮ
>>
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>> --
>> Frank Wimberly
>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz
>> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>> 505 670-9918
>>
>> Research:https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2
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