[FRIAM] [EXT] News Alert: Most young men are single. Most young women are not.
Russell Standish
lists at hpcoders.com.au
Wed Feb 22 18:16:17 EST 2023
I did a calculation based on a steady growth rate followed by
extinction and anthropic reasoning (aka as the "doomsday argument"),
and came up with a 50% chance of population collapse by 2100. This was
based on 2005 population figures. See appendix B of my book "Theory of
Nothing". I haven't bothered publishing that study elsewhere.
Of course - the steady growth rate assumption is extreme. We know that
the population growth rate is decreasing, with the inflection point a
couple of decades ago. On current demographics, the earth's population
will peak around 2070, and then go into a bit of decline, with some
countries such as China going into reverse considerably sooner (eg I
believe 2030s is the current prediction for China to start having a
declining population).
Natural population decline due to declining fertility is much
preferable to a hard extinction extinction, of course, particular on a
century timescale. So we should live with the fact that we may not
have any grandchildren/great grandchildren whatever your stage of life
is. I'm already comfortable with that - I doubt I'll have any
grandchildren :).
On Wed, Feb 22, 2023 at 03:10:45PM -0700, Gillian Densmore wrote:
> WTF, how are they coming up with these numbers? I know it sucks a whales ******
> these days to make friends. Much less a GF (or BF). But something aint adding
> up here. Did they ask both people in the relationship?
>
> On Wed, Feb 22, 2023 at 3:04 PM Steve Smith <sasmyth at swcp.com> wrote:
>
>
> In a very limited and somewhat ad-hoc (latin hypercube of 10 samples of 5
> variables) ensemble study (100,000 samples) I did with an NREL colleague in
> 2019 using the World3 Model we found a very ad-hoc observation that among
> the various ideas of what was a "good outcome" in 2100 (like GDP/person or
> other vernacular ideas of "quality of life") that virtually *all* of them
> involved a sooner-rather-than-later population collapse.
>
> To the extent that Modeling (in general), SD modeling more particularly and
> the World3 model in particular I wasn't very inclined to take the
> quantitative results of any of very seriously but it was an interesting
> (but unsurprising) qualitative result?
>
> For anyone interested in an interactive web implementation to dork with
> yourself:
>
> https://insightmaker.com/insight/2pCL5ePy8wWgr4SN8BQ4DD/
> The-World3-Model-Classic-World-Simulation
>
> FWIW I dorked around with it in honor of Jimmy Carter's recent admission to
> a hospice program... looking at what it might have meant if we'd followed
> his lead back around 1978. Worth noting, I (foolishly by hindsight)
> helped run him out of town to be replaced with Ronnie Raygun ... "drill
> baby drill, burn baby burn!"
>
> And an excerpt from a recent (2020) update synopsis of the Limits to Growth
> project/idea/model/results:
>
>
> [cid]
>
> Worth noting: The population drops in BAU/BAU2 (Biznezz as Usual)
> represent increased death rates rather than reduced fertility rates.
>
> The bigger (or smaller by another measure) question of what decisions
> anyone of us might make (for ourselves, our progeny, our friends, whatever
> policy-making is in our jurisdiction, in our imagination) is a much
> trickier one based on myriad principles/values that likely few of us share
> unless we choose a high dimension-reduction strategy (e.g. single-issue
> conception). My parents were overtly ZPG advocates and I have one sister
> which lead me to feel plenty "done" after 2 children myself. Each of my 2
> have chosen to only have 1. Many of my friends have chosen to be
> childless. Most of my peers who were from large sibling groups have at
> best a replacement cohort among their children and nieces/nephews which are
> headed toward a NPG in the following generation.
>
> My current heuristic is that if I want my grandchildren to reproduce, I
> need to get out of the way which means unless their other grandparents
> don't have the grace of knocking off by the time they want to do that, then
> it is up to me... no open-ended life-extension unless I expect to leave the
> planet (hear my pain Elon?) I don't think the World3 has been updated to
> be a Sol model and even considering it really challenges the very structure
> /concept of the World3 SD model!
>
> Most of the population growth models I've run into suggest that we might be
> on our way to(ward) ZPG with many regions going into NPG, but not until we
> pass 10B. I don't know that *any* of them factor in the non-linear effects
> of possible/likely runaway global warming or species collapse.
>
> [467px-World_population_]
>
>
> On 2/22/23 11:53 AM, Santafe wrote:
>
> Yeah. Bill Rees and Meghan Seibert want 90% of us to die
> https://www.realgnd.org/people
> (or a position paper somewhere in their writings).
>
> On their people page, you can see what happy ecologists they are, and BIll is a friendly old grandfather with a beard.
>
> I shouldn’t be snotty. I think they are actually very tortured about their dictum that 90% of us should die. And I think in some sense they are committed, good people.
>
> But I put them up here, because somehow people collapsing under decades of frustration seem to develop a misanthropy that causes them to forget It’s Not All About You (and how tortured you are, being the only truth-teller in a lonely world). If you really care about the thing you say, then it should eclipse your own self-importance enough that you just stay focused on the task.
>
> I don’t know in how far their positions turn out to represent solid numbers. Maybe some part of it. But I have said that before.
>
> Eric
>
>
>
> On Feb 22, 2023, at 1:06 PM, Gary Schiltz <gary at naturesvisualarts.com> wrote:
>
> A few really do want our species to go extinct, but many believe that we are already overpopulated and need to level off or reduce population. I lean only slightly toward the latter.
>
> On Wed, Feb 22, 2023 at 12:51 PM Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com> wrote:
> Agreed. But if we don't construct any new ones and the existing ones all die (they will) we will run out. Is that a reasonable goal?
>
> On Wed, Feb 22, 2023 at 10:20 AM glen <gepropella at gmail.com> wrote:
> We do not need more people. We have plenty of people. Please stop constructing people. >8^D
>
> On 2/22/23 09:16, Frank Wimberly wrote:
>
> I am worried however. I have two grandsons in their 20s. Each has a girlfriend. Those young women want nothing to do with babies. I assume they have younger siblings. I hope that as they enter their 30s their attitudes will change because of the realization that they are running out of time.
>
> ---
> Frank C. Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>
> 505 670-9918
> Santa Fe, NM
>
> On Wed, Feb 22, 2023, 10:08 AM Santafe <desmith at santafe.edu <mailto:desmith at santafe.edu>> wrote:
>
> I think the keyword was young.
>
> You can do that if the old men are all married to young women.
>
> > On Feb 22, 2023, at 12:02 PM, Nicholas Thompson <thompnickson2 at gmail.com <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com>> wrote:
> >
> > Last time I checked, the average number of attached males has to equal the average number of attached females, unless, of course, females, feel attached to men who don’t feel attached.
> >
> > Sent from my Dumb Phone
> >
> > Begin forwarded message:
> >
> > From: The Hill <thehill at email.thehill.com <mailto:thehill at email.thehill.com>>
> > Date: February 22, 2023 at 7:01:34 AM MST
> > To: nthompson at clarku.edu <mailto:nthompson at clarku.edu>
> > Subject: [EXT] News Alert: Most young men are single. Most young women are not.
> > Reply-To: emailteam at thehill.com <mailto:emailteam at thehill.com>
> >
> >
> > View Online
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Most young men are single. Most young women are not.
> > More than 60 percent of young men are single, nearly twice the rate of unattached young women, signaling a larger breakdown in the social, romantic and sexual life of the American male.
> >
> > Read the full story here.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
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> --
> ꙮ Mɥǝu ǝlǝdɥɐuʇs ɟᴉƃɥʇ' ʇɥǝ ƃɹɐss snɟɟǝɹs˙ ꙮ
>
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> --
> Frank Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
> 505 670-9918
>
> Research: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2
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--
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