[FRIAM] COVID-19

[thompnickson2 at gmail.com]

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america 

This analysis seems stunningly optimistic, given that by their own account
the social distancing in the US has been lame by comparison with, say,
France, which is having a heluva time. 

>From their FAQ/;

Will we need social distancing until there is a vaccine?

Our model suggests that - with social distancing maintained throughout - the
end of the first wave of the epidemic could occur by early June.

The question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic will
depend on what we do to avoid reintroducing COVID-19 into the population. By
the end of the first wave of the epidemic, a substantial proportion of the
population of the United States and EEA countries are likely to still be
susceptible to the disease and thus measures to avoid a second wave of the
pandemic prior to vaccine availability will be necessary. Maintaining some
social distancing measures could be supplemented or replaced by nation-wide
efforts such as mass screening, contact tracing, and selective quarantine.
We are continuing to develop our modeling framework and are exploring
alternate scenarios where social distancing measures are incompletely
applied or are lifted before the projected first wave of the epidemic has
passed. We will make these projections available as soon as development is
complete.

 

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