[FRIAM] high turnout and tight races?

[uǝlƃ ↙↙↙]

[sigh] N=1 doesn't make for good estimates of correlation. I'm guessing you have no opinion on the question but prefer to answer a question that nobody asked. >8^D

On 10/28/20 5:00 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:
> I'm saying that in this election there will be high turnout and not a very close election.
> 
> 
> On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 5:59 PM uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ <gepropella at gmail.com <mailto:gepropella at gmail.com>> wrote:
> 
>     So, what about the question I asked? You have no opinion on whether high turnout negatively or positively correlates with narrow victories?
> 
> 
>     On 10/28/20 4:52 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:
>     > I predict that Biden will win by a large margin and that the outcome will be clear on election night notwithstanding any outstanding uncounted votes.  Young people are voting in unprecedented numbers and are reportedly voting against Trump.  Similarly the elderly, who favored Trump over Clinton by 10+ percentage points in 2016 are favoring Biden over Trump by a similar margin, according to polls.
>     >
>     > The good thing about predictions is that they can be evaluated perfectly after the events have happened.
>     >
>     > Frank
>     >
>     > ---
>     > Frank C. Wimberly
>     > 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
>     > Santa Fe, NM 87505
>     >
>     > 505 670-9918
>     > Santa Fe, NM
>     >
>     > On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 5:20 PM uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ <gepropella at gmail.com <mailto:gepropella at gmail.com> <mailto:gepropella at gmail.com <mailto:gepropella at gmail.com>>> wrote:
>     >
>     >     From:
>     >
>     >     https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html#item-7 <https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html#item-7> <https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html#item-7 <https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html#item-7>>
>     >     "6. High turnout makes razor-thin victories, like the ones Trump notched in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in 2016, much less likely."
>     >
>     >     Is that true? I've always heard that tight races lead to higher turnout, which would imply that high turnout would correlate WITH thin victories, not against them.


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