[FRIAM] what's the view from Europe?

Sun Mar 6 01:03:45 EST 2022

https://livebeachcam.net/kharkiv-ukraine-live-webcam/

https://livebeachcam.net/dnipro-ukraine-live-webcam-2/

https://livebeachcam.net/mykolaiv-ukraine-live-webcam/

These are the main (apparently) live webcams I have found out of 
Ukraine...   A lot have been taken offline or restricted access (for 
obvious reasons re: Russian Army Intell).  e.g. everything in Odessa is 
restricted or non-operational that I can find.   The Ukraine/Polish 
border crossings seem to be down/offline.  I'm surprised Mykolaiv is 
up/online...

Everything that is online shows a very quiet/slow moment (Sunday AM  
~11PM MDT+9 = 0800?).  I don't know what curfew status is in place.

Realtime update @7:53 AM Kyiv time, Zelinsky seems to be broadcasting a 
live address coming in over some of the webcams... I have absolutely no 
ear for Slavic languages, so I can only parse emotional content.  
Adamant, resolved and persuasive...

The Ukranian? broadcaster that took over all the live feeds is still 
feeding through the previously unavailable "black sea" webcam:

https://livebeachcam.net/black-sea-live-webcam/

Lots of UkrainGlish words coming through like Anthony Blinken, Lindsay 
Graham, No-Fly-Zona, and recognizeble place names...

Geeze!   This war will be not just televised but Webcast and Tweeted.

....

On 3/5/22 10:36 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>
> For now, convoys coming out of Poland or other countries can try to 
> disguise arms as humanitarian relief.
>
> One could imagine that Javelins could be hidden in small trucks.   It 
> gets harder to disguise a MiG-29.
>
> But there’s no plausible deniability here about Javelins and other 
> weapons intended for Ukraine.   The stated intent of NATO and the US 
> is to enable Ukrainian armed forces to kill Russian soldiers.   At 
> some point, probably relatively soon, it won’t be possible to smuggle 
> large volumes of advanced weapons into Ukraine.   Then what?    Wait 
> for Putin to knock on the door of a NATO country?   He’ll say, “but I 
> have tactical nuclear weapons”, what are you going to do? [1]
>
> Another option is to declare that convoys to and from Ukraine will get 
> NATO escorts.   Then it is on the Russians to escalate:  Don’t you 
> dare shoot at us.
>
> I don’t see any way that Putin can be allowed to come out of this.  
>  His military needs to be degraded.   It can happen now, or it can 
> happen later.   If it happens later there are going to be a lot of 
> dead Ukrainians.  At this point I wouldn’t be surprised if he wants it 
> to be a radioactive DMZ.
>
> Marcus
>
> [1] 
> https://www.russiamatters.org/analysis/escalate-deescalate-part-russias-nuclear-toolbox
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Steve Smith
> *Sent:* Saturday, March 5, 2022 8:09 PM
> *To:* friam at redfish.com
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] what's the view from Europe?
>
> On 3/4/22 8:29 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>
>     https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1499440540290584583
>
> I started watching this guy (Beau of the Fifth Column) semi-regularly 
> months ago even though his affect triggers a lot of my attempts to 
> ignore my own redneck roots.   I don't think I've mentioned him 
> before... I half expect Glen is already clued in to him.  It is hard 
> to see/hear him without expecting to hear the Trump Train tooting in 
> the background, but he's quite the opposite.  Scary relevant/clued 
> in/clear IMO.
>
>     https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPzQ1DyGZHs
>
> This "episode" felt like a powerful smack-down of those 
> (politicians/pundits?) who are rattling "no fly" sabers.   To 
> summarize, my takeaway was "if you think you can establish a no-fly 
> zone in Ukraine, it would be yonks better to keep your powder dry and 
> do a first strike because a no-fly *will* be Putin's pretext, even 
> though he'll likely find another anyway".
>
> In personal anecdote space, Mary's nephew  in Madison WI hosted a 
> young woman from Ukraine as an exchange student a few years ago.   
> They did a GoFundme to raise the cash to do everything they could to 
> get her out.  She was hunkered down 80 miles East of Kyiv  on a farm 
> she was interning (organic farming) on... all the women and children 
> evacuated  fairly early on but they didn't have room for all so she 
> and another young woman stayed behind.    In the last two days, she 
> worked her way from there to Lviv (<50 miles from Poland) and hopes to 
> make it to the border where the current time just standing in line to 
> be processed is order 20 hours (according to her) though Poland has no 
> document requirements...   if you show up at the border and you are 
> not a military age (16-60?) age male they take your name and try to 
> help you figure out what to do next I guess.    The nephew and wife 
> who are expecting their second child any day now are trying to get her 
> here to their rural homestead to live indefinitely. Otherwise 
> (imminent birth) her nephew would be in Poland to meet her.
>
> My Ukrainian colleagues are still incommunicado with me, but our 
> mutual colleagues who have remained engaged (Matt and Janire of 4Pi 
> Productions, some of you met/knew through SFx... English/Spanish) 
> speak with the non-Russian of the duo (Yuri) every day or two.   They 
> are hyper-focused capable 40-somethings and at least Yuri will be one 
> of the guys figuring out how to pry the tracks off of tanks with 
> prosumer drones or something.
>
> I have one other Ukranian (Karkeiv) contact that I have only had one 
> brief contact with a couple of days ago.  She is a lot less 
> resourceful and in spite of having power, water, even internet 
> (intermittently) doesn't know what to do beyond hiding in her basement 
> (apartment building) everytime there is a air raid warning.   She 
> wasn't able to give me enough info in our brief exchange to know how 
> to even begin to help her personally.    Right now financial aid in 
> general (as per Glen's ideations against over-focusing on only helping 
> people you know) seems like the "most/least" we can do.
>
> My former NREL colleague (now IOHK/Global ala Cardano/Ada) has 12 
> colleagues in Ukraine, he only knew of 2 a week ago and a similar or 
> larger number in Russia) and expects to get more "insider stories" 
> from both quarters "soon".
>
> This feels much bigger in my lifetime than 9/11, Iraq/Afghanistan, 
> COVID, even Trump....   maybe it is the proximity in time, or a 
> lifetime of cold-war spectre.
>
>
>
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