[FRIAM] what's the view from Europe?

Sun Mar 6 01:17:07 EST 2022

https://livebeachcam.net/capital-of-ukraine-live-webcam-rusanivka-neighborhood-in-kiev/

I'm now seeing missile strikes on apartment buildings in Karkiev... the 
first sign of conflict in any of these webcams... the daylight matches 
the 8AM local and the onscreen clock reads 1 minute behind real-time...

Someone seems to be driving the pan/zoom on the one in Karkiev where the 
missile strikes are coming in.

Also on youtubelive:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6pvh49jSNM

On 3/5/22 11:03 PM, Steve Smith wrote:
>
> https://livebeachcam.net/kharkiv-ukraine-live-webcam/
>
> https://livebeachcam.net/dnipro-ukraine-live-webcam-2/
>
> https://livebeachcam.net/mykolaiv-ukraine-live-webcam/
>
> These are the main (apparently) live webcams I have found out of 
> Ukraine...   A lot have been taken offline or restricted access (for 
> obvious reasons re: Russian Army Intell).  e.g. everything in Odessa 
> is restricted or non-operational that I can find.   The Ukraine/Polish 
> border crossings seem to be down/offline.  I'm surprised Mykolaiv is 
> up/online...
>
> Everything that is online shows a very quiet/slow moment (Sunday AM  
> ~11PM MDT+9 = 0800?).  I don't know what curfew status is in place.
>
> Realtime update @7:53 AM Kyiv time, Zelinsky seems to be broadcasting 
> a live address coming in over some of the webcams...  I have 
> absolutely no ear for Slavic languages, so I can only parse emotional 
> content.  Adamant, resolved and persuasive...
>
> The Ukranian? broadcaster that took over all the live feeds is still 
> feeding through the previously unavailable "black sea" webcam:
>
> https://livebeachcam.net/black-sea-live-webcam/
>
> Lots of UkrainGlish words coming through like Anthony Blinken, Lindsay 
> Graham, No-Fly-Zona, and recognizeble place names...
>
> Geeze!   This war will be not just televised but Webcast and Tweeted.
>
>
> ....
>
>
> On 3/5/22 10:36 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>>
>> For now, convoys coming out of Poland or other countries can try to 
>> disguise arms as humanitarian relief.
>>
>> One could imagine that Javelins could be hidden in small trucks.   It 
>> gets harder to disguise a MiG-29.
>>
>> But there’s no plausible deniability here about Javelins and other 
>> weapons intended for Ukraine.   The stated intent of NATO and the US 
>> is to enable Ukrainian armed forces to kill Russian soldiers.   At 
>> some point, probably relatively soon, it won’t be possible to smuggle 
>> large volumes of advanced weapons into Ukraine.   Then what?    Wait 
>> for Putin to knock on the door of a NATO country?   He’ll say, “but I 
>> have tactical nuclear weapons”, what are you going to do? [1]
>>
>> Another option is to declare that convoys to and from Ukraine will 
>> get NATO escorts.   Then it is on the Russians to escalate:  Don’t 
>> you dare shoot at us.
>>
>> I don’t see any way that Putin can be allowed to come out of this.  
>>  His military needs to be degraded.   It can happen now, or it can 
>> happen later.   If it happens later there are going to be a lot of 
>> dead Ukrainians.   At this point I wouldn’t be surprised if he wants 
>> it to be a radioactive DMZ.
>>
>> Marcus
>>
>> [1] 
>> https://www.russiamatters.org/analysis/escalate-deescalate-part-russias-nuclear-toolbox
>>
>> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Steve Smith
>> *Sent:* Saturday, March 5, 2022 8:09 PM
>> *To:* friam at redfish.com
>> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] what's the view from Europe?
>>
>> On 3/4/22 8:29 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>>
>>     https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1499440540290584583
>>
>> I started watching this guy (Beau of the Fifth Column) semi-regularly 
>> months ago even though his affect triggers a lot of my attempts to 
>> ignore my own redneck roots.   I don't think I've mentioned him 
>> before... I half expect Glen is already clued in to him.  It is hard 
>> to see/hear him without expecting to hear the Trump Train tooting in 
>> the background, but he's quite the opposite.  Scary relevant/clued 
>> in/clear IMO.
>>
>>     https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPzQ1DyGZHs
>>
>> This "episode" felt like a powerful smack-down of those 
>> (politicians/pundits?) who are rattling "no fly" sabers. To 
>> summarize, my takeaway was "if you think you can establish a no-fly 
>> zone in Ukraine, it would be yonks better to keep your powder dry and 
>> do a first strike because a no-fly *will* be Putin's pretext, even 
>> though he'll likely find another anyway".
>>
>> In personal anecdote space, Mary's nephew  in Madison WI hosted a 
>> young woman from Ukraine as an exchange student a few years ago.   
>> They did a GoFundme to raise the cash to do everything they could to 
>> get her out.  She was hunkered down 80 miles East of Kyiv  on a farm 
>> she was interning (organic farming) on... all the women and children 
>> evacuated  fairly early on but they didn't have room for all so she 
>> and another young woman stayed behind.    In the last two days, she 
>> worked her way from there to Lviv (<50 miles from Poland) and hopes 
>> to make it to the border where the current time just standing in line 
>> to be processed is order 20 hours (according to her) though Poland 
>> has no document requirements...   if you show up at the border and 
>> you are not a military age (16-60?) age male they take your name and 
>> try to help you figure out what to do next I guess.    The nephew and 
>> wife who are expecting their second child any day now are trying to 
>> get her here to their rural homestead to live indefinitely.   
>> Otherwise (imminent birth) her nephew would be in Poland to meet her.
>>
>> My Ukrainian colleagues are still incommunicado with me, but our 
>> mutual colleagues who have remained engaged (Matt and Janire of 4Pi 
>> Productions, some of you met/knew through SFx... English/Spanish) 
>> speak with the non-Russian of the duo (Yuri) every day or two.   They 
>> are hyper-focused capable 40-somethings and at least Yuri will be one 
>> of the guys figuring out how to pry the tracks off of tanks with 
>> prosumer drones or something.
>>
>> I have one other Ukranian (Karkeiv) contact that I have only had one 
>> brief contact with a couple of days ago.  She is a lot less 
>> resourceful and in spite of having power, water, even internet 
>> (intermittently) doesn't know what to do beyond hiding in her 
>> basement (apartment building) everytime there is a air raid 
>> warning.   She wasn't able to give me enough info in our brief 
>> exchange to know how to even begin to help her personally.    Right 
>> now financial aid in general (as per Glen's ideations against 
>> over-focusing on only helping people you know) seems like the 
>> "most/least" we can do.
>>
>> My former NREL colleague (now IOHK/Global ala Cardano/Ada) has 12 
>> colleagues in Ukraine, he only knew of 2 a week ago and a similar or 
>> larger number in Russia) and expects to get more "insider stories" 
>> from both quarters "soon".
>>
>> This feels much bigger in my lifetime than 9/11, Iraq/Afghanistan, 
>> COVID, even Trump....   maybe it is the proximity in time, or a 
>> lifetime of cold-war spectre.
>>
>>
>>
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