[FRIAM] Dry Line

[Nicholas Thompson]

Two things to notice about today's dryline:

First, the air in Santa Fe is getting moister.  Dewpoints approaching the
30's.
[image: image.png]


The steepest gradient in dewpoint is in N Texas where a bubble of very
moist air is pushing into SE colorado.

[image: image.png]
Now, that plume of most air is only at the surface.   The dry air to the
west of it is "warmer"  (higher THETA )  and should be over riding it at
Amarillo.  Let's see.

[image: image.png]
Wow!  There's the characteristic pinetree shape of the elevated mixed
layer.  Notice that in the first few meters the dewpoint falls dramatically
and the surface relative temperature rises ten degrees centigrade.  Not
very elevated.

I wonder what the Storms Prediction Center is making of all of this.

[image: image.png]
Well, not a whole lot, actually, although  the text forecast is a bit more
dramatic than the graphic one.



 There will be
   the potential for isolated thunderstorm development later this
   afternoon along the west edge of the richer moisture (near the
   western OK/TX border) where MLCAPE could exceed 5000 J/kg with only
   small convective inhibition.  However, forcing for ascent will be
   rather nebulous and storm initiation/coverage are both in question.
   If storms form, there will be just enough vertical shear for
   supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail, and
   perhaps an isolated tornado. Confidence is greater in renewed
   thunderstorm development across KS this afternoon and into OK late
   this evening into early tonight, as a weak surface cold front and
   associated midlevel trough will move southeastward and impinge on
   the very moist/unstable warm sector.  Very large buoyancy and nearly
   dry adiabatic lapse rates across OK will support large/tall storms
   capable of producing isolated very large hail initially, and an
   increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph) as storms grow
   upscale into another MCS tonight.

So ends your morning dryline report.

I am trying to think about what you-guys are going to do about me.  Since I
am convinced that you all SHOULD be interested in dry lines, i am unlikely
to stop.  So perhaps you should designate somebody to heroically fake an
interest in this stuff fwith me and,  since I am clearly casting my seeds
upon barren ground.  These MCS's that form down wind of the dry line are
wonderful examples butterfly effect phenomina since the situation is s
LOADED that very small effects produce very violent storms.

Nick
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