[FRIAM] Dry Line

[Frank Wimberly]

Nick

I find your weather reports interesting and I learn a little from time to
time.  When I worked at the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center we had some
users (Kelvin Droegemeier et al)  who were developing programs to explain
weather phenomena.  My impression was that if you started asking questions
the answers involved very advanced CFD (computational fluid dynamics).  I
didn't have the time to master that so I just watch the weather reports on
TV.  I admire your courage in seeking a deeper understanding.

Frank

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Tue, Jun 4, 2024, 9:22 AM Nicholas Thompson <thompnickson2 at gmail.com>
wrote:

> Two things to notice about today's dryline:
>
> First, the air in Santa Fe is getting moister.  Dewpoints approaching the
> 30's.
> [image: image.png]
>
>
> The steepest gradient in dewpoint is in N Texas where a bubble of very
> moist air is pushing into SE colorado.
>
> [image: image.png]
> Now, that plume of most air is only at the surface.   The dry air to the
> west of it is "warmer"  (higher THETA )  and should be over riding it at
> Amarillo.  Let's see.
>
> [image: image.png]
> Wow!  There's the characteristic pinetree shape of the elevated mixed
> layer.  Notice that in the first few meters the dewpoint falls dramatically
> and the surface relative temperature rises ten degrees centigrade.  Not
> very elevated.
>
> I wonder what the Storms Prediction Center is making of all of this.
>
> [image: image.png]
> Well, not a whole lot, actually, although  the text forecast is a bit more
> dramatic than the graphic one.
>
>
>
>  There will be
>    the potential for isolated thunderstorm development later this
>    afternoon along the west edge of the richer moisture (near the
>    western OK/TX border) where MLCAPE could exceed 5000 J/kg with only
>    small convective inhibition.  However, forcing for ascent will be
>    rather nebulous and storm initiation/coverage are both in question.
>    If storms form, there will be just enough vertical shear for
>    supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail, and
>    perhaps an isolated tornado. Confidence is greater in renewed
>    thunderstorm development across KS this afternoon and into OK late
>    this evening into early tonight, as a weak surface cold front and
>    associated midlevel trough will move southeastward and impinge on
>    the very moist/unstable warm sector.  Very large buoyancy and nearly
>    dry adiabatic lapse rates across OK will support large/tall storms
>    capable of producing isolated very large hail initially, and an
>    increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph) as storms grow
>    upscale into another MCS tonight.
>
> So ends your morning dryline report.
>
> I am trying to think about what you-guys are going to do about me.  Since
> I am convinced that you all SHOULD be interested in dry lines, i am
> unlikely to stop.  So perhaps you should designate somebody to heroically
> fake an interest in this stuff fwith me and,  since I am clearly casting my
> seeds upon barren ground.  These MCS's that form down wind of the dry line
> are wonderful examples butterfly effect phenomina since the situation is s
> LOADED that very small effects produce very violent storms.
>
> Nick
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