[FRIAM] Dry Line

Thu Jun 6 10:54:14 EDT 2024

Hi, everybody.
\
Think of this as your morning Shipping News.

The dry line has tightened and is set up along the NM TX border as  a
> thermal low forms over northern Mexico.  Cold front intruding in to NE NM
> sets up potential triple point where three fronts come together.
>

[image: image.png]

State map makes the exact position of the dry line even more evident with
southward flowing low dewpoint air to the West and northward flowing moist
air to the east.

[image: image.png]

Today, the Storms Prediction Center doesn't make a whole lot of this,
except an increase in the possibility of T-storms across most of NM today.
But apparently, the advection of high THETA-e (warm, moist) air is just
beginning, because storms are forecast over the weekend.  .

*Today*
Sunny, with a high near 94. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest in
the morning.
*Tonight*
Mostly clear, with a low around 62. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming
east after midnight.
*Friday*
Isolated thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. East
wind 5 to 15 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Chance of
precipitation is 20%.
*Friday Night*
Isolated showers and thunderstorms before 9pm, then isolated showers
between 9pm and midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Southwest
wind 5 to 15 mph becoming northeast after midnight. Chance of precipitation
is 20%.
*Saturday*
Isolated showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high
near 91. Northeast wind 5 to 15 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Chance
of precipitation is 20%.
*Saturday Night*
Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 9pm, then scattered showers
between 9pm and midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Chance of
precipitation is 30%.
*Sunday*
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after noon. Mostly cloudy, with
a high near 82. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
.
That's it for the Morning Shipping News.   Southerly Gales West of the
Orkneys.

NIck

On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 11:21 AM Nicholas Thompson <thompnickson2 at gmail.com>
wrote:

> Two things to notice about today's dryline:
>
> First, the air in Santa Fe is getting moister.  Dewpoints approaching the
> 30's.
> [image: image.png]
>
>
> The steepest gradient in dewpoint is in N Texas where a bubble of very
> moist air is pushing into SE colorado.
>
> [image: image.png]
> Now, that plume of most air is only at the surface.   The dry air to the
> west of it is "warmer"  (higher THETA )  and should be over riding it at
> Amarillo.  Let's see.
>
> [image: image.png]
> Wow!  There's the characteristic pinetree shape of the elevated mixed
> layer.  Notice that in the first few meters the dewpoint falls dramatically
> and the surface relative temperature rises ten degrees centigrade.  Not
> very elevated.
>
> I wonder what the Storms Prediction Center is making of all of this.
>
> [image: image.png]
> Well, not a whole lot, actually, although  the text forecast is a bit more
> dramatic than the graphic one.
>
>
>
>  There will be
>    the potential for isolated thunderstorm development later this
>    afternoon along the west edge of the richer moisture (near the
>    western OK/TX border) where MLCAPE could exceed 5000 J/kg with only
>    small convective inhibition.  However, forcing for ascent will be
>    rather nebulous and storm initiation/coverage are both in question.
>    If storms form, there will be just enough vertical shear for
>    supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail, and
>    perhaps an isolated tornado. Confidence is greater in renewed
>    thunderstorm development across KS this afternoon and into OK late
>    this evening into early tonight, as a weak surface cold front and
>    associated midlevel trough will move southeastward and impinge on
>    the very moist/unstable warm sector.  Very large buoyancy and nearly
>    dry adiabatic lapse rates across OK will support large/tall storms
>    capable of producing isolated very large hail initially, and an
>    increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph) as storms grow
>    upscale into another MCS tonight.
>
> So ends your morning dryline report.
>
> I am trying to think about what you-guys are going to do about me.  Since
> I am convinced that you all SHOULD be interested in dry lines, i am
> unlikely to stop.  So perhaps you should designate somebody to heroically
> fake an interest in this stuff fwith me and,  since I am clearly casting my
> seeds upon barren ground.  These MCS's that form down wind of the dry line
> are wonderful examples butterfly effect phenomina since the situation is s
> LOADED that very small effects produce very violent storms.
>
> Nick
>
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