[FRIAM] Dry Line

[Frank Wimberly]

A large rainstorm was approaching us from the south but before it got here
it turned east.  Lucky Pecos.

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Fri, Jun 7, 2024, 12:43 PM Nicholas Thompson <thompnickson2 at gmail.com>
wrote:

> According to the morning map, the dryline actually backed off into the RG
> Valley over night, but now seems to have settled just east of the Sangres,
> today.
> [image: image.png]
> Note the 50 degree dewpoint contour line.  (you have to draw it yourself)
>
> Rail Yard WEb Cam shows a CN over the northern Sangres.
>
> N
>
> On Tue, Jun 4, 2024 at 11:21 AM Nicholas Thompson <thompnickson2 at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>> Two things to notice about today's dryline:
>>
>> First, the air in Santa Fe is getting moister.  Dewpoints approaching the
>> 30's.
>> [image: image.png]
>>
>>
>> The steepest gradient in dewpoint is in N Texas where a bubble of very
>> moist air is pushing into SE colorado.
>>
>> [image: image.png]
>> Now, that plume of most air is only at the surface.   The dry air to the
>> west of it is "warmer"  (higher THETA )  and should be over riding it at
>> Amarillo.  Let's see.
>>
>> [image: image.png]
>> Wow!  There's the characteristic pinetree shape of the elevated mixed
>> layer.  Notice that in the first few meters the dewpoint falls dramatically
>> and the surface relative temperature rises ten degrees centigrade.  Not
>> very elevated.
>>
>> I wonder what the Storms Prediction Center is making of all of this.
>>
>> [image: image.png]
>> Well, not a whole lot, actually, although  the text forecast is a bit
>> more dramatic than the graphic one.
>>
>>
>>
>>  There will be
>>    the potential for isolated thunderstorm development later this
>>    afternoon along the west edge of the richer moisture (near the
>>    western OK/TX border) where MLCAPE could exceed 5000 J/kg with only
>>    small convective inhibition.  However, forcing for ascent will be
>>    rather nebulous and storm initiation/coverage are both in question.
>>    If storms form, there will be just enough vertical shear for
>>    supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail, and
>>    perhaps an isolated tornado. Confidence is greater in renewed
>>    thunderstorm development across KS this afternoon and into OK late
>>    this evening into early tonight, as a weak surface cold front and
>>    associated midlevel trough will move southeastward and impinge on
>>    the very moist/unstable warm sector.  Very large buoyancy and nearly
>>    dry adiabatic lapse rates across OK will support large/tall storms
>>    capable of producing isolated very large hail initially, and an
>>    increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph) as storms grow
>>    upscale into another MCS tonight.
>>
>> So ends your morning dryline report.
>>
>> I am trying to think about what you-guys are going to do about me.  Since
>> I am convinced that you all SHOULD be interested in dry lines, i am
>> unlikely to stop.  So perhaps you should designate somebody to heroically
>> fake an interest in this stuff fwith me and,  since I am clearly casting my
>> seeds upon barren ground.  These MCS's that form down wind of the dry line
>> are wonderful examples butterfly effect phenomina since the situation is s
>> LOADED that very small effects produce very violent storms.
>>
>> Nick
>>
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