[FRIAM] What if Trump Wins?
steve smith
sasmyth at swcp.com
Sat Nov 2 13:59:24 EDT 2024
Pieter -
Thanks for the detailed analysis/report of the state of SA
socio-politics. It is good for US fat and happy 'murricans to be
reminded that the rest of the world has it's own challenges, even those
we casually imagine to be "living the good life".
I hear a class or style of pragmatism running through the SA national
progression and perhaps your own personal experience which I am familiar
with. This from my own background and amongst the *myriad* MAGA folks
I am at least acquainted with here, if not actually somewhat closely
connected (relatives, neighbors, etc.). I'm also a strong idealist in
my own ways but either leavened with or schizoided by instinctual
pragmatism. I say that as a peacenik who somehow resolved working in
the immediate vicinity of nuclear weapons design for order 10+ years
before becoming disillusioned with MAD and finally disengaging from that
system over the political/corporate corruption only superficially hidden
(when Bechtel Corp took possession of most of the US Nuclear Design
Jewels in 2006/7).
I imagine SA to have some of the same "frontier" ideals/habits that the
American West (and south and midwest) to carry. Your end-of-Apartheid
is/was very different/similar than our own Civil Rights era and probably
still burbling stronger even than our own with all our own unrest.
Your level of struggle with corruption makes me think of that reported
by the young colleagues I was working with in Ukraine leading up to the
2014 moments there.... the ethnically Russian/Ukrainian born-raised one
of the pair was adamant: "we are ending our corruption the hard but
only way, we are all choosing not to engage in it, if something cannot
be done without a bribe, we can outwait the corrupt bribe-takers until
they all are starved out of their positions of power". I don't know if
it was a right way to act but it felt right-headed in spirit. I also
don't know how well it worked out... I got the feeling they had already
been on that program since the mid/late 2000 decade? I lost touch at
the diffraction point of the Russian invasion but hear through mutual
colleagues that they are "thriving" if only in their war resistance
efforts. The Russian-Ukranian is likely very loyal to his birthland but
it may put him at odds with his parents and extended family.
On 11/1/24 11:04 PM, Pieter Steenekamp wrote:
> Steve,
>
> I’d like to address your question: "/Do you identify as a South
> African (Dutch descent vs. English) with BRICS, or is it a fiction
> that you and/or South Africa don't buy into? A significant correlation
> (IMO) among BRICS+ nations is strong authoritarianism or at least
> democratic backsliding." /
> /
> /
> I’ll start with an executive summary followed by details.
>
> *Executive Summary
> *
> Under former President Jacob Zuma, South Africa experienced a slide
> toward autocracy and poor governance, with Zuma developing close ties
> to Russia. However, the current President Cyril Ramaphosa has shifted
> the country back to pragmatic governance, actively rooting out
> corruption and establishing good governance practices. The focus now
> is primarily on service delivery and addressing everyday issues, with
> less emphasis on BRICS and other global matters.
>
> *A wee bit more details
> *
> *Historical Background and BRICS Dynamics
> *
> South Africa’s relationship with BRICS has deep historical roots. In
> the 1980s, liberation movements like the ANC received significant
> support from Russia and China to overthrow the apartheid regime. The
> ANC, initially led by Nelson Mandela and later by others, established
> pragmatic ties with both Western and BRICS countries, leading to South
> Africa’s membership in BRICS.
>
> *Recent Political Developments
> *
> In the April general election this year, the ANC lost its outright
> majority and formed a coalition government with the DA, known as the
> Government of National Unity (GNU). The ANC secured approximately 40%
> of the vote, while the DA received around 20%. The GNU also includes
> several minor parties, but it effectively functions as a coalition
> between the ANC and DA.
>
> *Socio-Political Landscape
> *
> *Support Base:* ANC supporters are predominantly Black, while the DA
> has significant support among white voters, though it also includes
> Black supporters.
>
> As for me personally, I find myself somewhat on the fence: I lean
> toward supporting the DA, but I also have very high regards for Cyril
> Ramaphosa’s leadership, focussing on inclusion and good governance,
> even if I don’t fully support the ANC.
>
> *Governance:* The Government of National Unity GNU has been effective
> in improving service delivery and addressing basic needs. Leadership
> from both the ANC and DA appears mature and cooperative, working
> together to enhance the lives of ordinary citizens, despite some
> exceptions and complexities.
>
> *BRICS Conference and Internal Dynamics*
>
> Recently, Russia hosted a BRICS conference attended by President
> Ramaphosa, who displayed warm relations with President Putin. This has
> caused internal friction within the DA, particularly among its white
> supporters who strongly oppose Russia’s actions in the Ukraine war.
> However, the prevailing sentiment is that focusing on service delivery
> and pressing domestic issues outweighs concerns over South Africa’s
> implicit support for Putin’s actions. As a result, Ramaphosa’s
> engagement with Russia is generally accepted without significant
> controversy.
>
> *Specifically addressing your questions
> *
> *Governance and Authoritarianism
> *
> *Jacob Zuma’s Era*
>
> Zuma was marked by corruption and authoritarian tendencies.
>
> *Current situation under Cyril Ramaphosa’s Leadership*
>
> There is a strong shift toward good governance under Ramaphosa,
> emphasizing transparency and accountability.
>
> *BRICS Relationships:* Historical Support: The support from Russia and
> China during the liberation struggle has left a lasting positive
> impression among the majority of Black South Africans.
>
> *Current Sentiment*: This historical alliance continues to influence
> contemporary views, making BRICS relationships generally favorable
> among the population.
>
> *Ramaphosa’s Pragmatism:* Diplomatic Strategy: Ramaphosa’s warm
> relations with Putin are likely aimed at acknowledging historical
> support and maintaining strong ties with BRICS nations.
>
> *Future Orientation:* His focus appears to be on leveraging Western
> partnerships to further South Africa’s development based on democratic
> principles and good governance, distancing the country from
> authoritarian influences.
>
> Pieter
>
> On Fri, 1 Nov 2024 at 18:23, steve smith <sasmyth at swcp.com> wrote:
>
>
> Pieter -
>
> It is very useful to me to have the geopolitical parallax you
> offer. If
> in fact many folks outside the USA see Trump as an effective
> negotiator,
> up to and including "bullying as negotiation by other means" then
> this
> is significant and interesting to me.
>
> As I've referenced a few times, I'm interested in the NATO+/BRICS+
> polarization that has emerged. Do you identify as a SA (Dutch
> descent
> vs English?) with BRICS or is it a fiction that you and/or SA
> don't buy
> into? A significant correlation (IMO) among BRICS+ nations is a
> strong
> authoritarianism or at least democratic backsliding. Trump has
> already
> undermined NATO's stability and will likely do it again, some more
> up to
> withdrawal/abandonment. Will that lead to "joining" BRICS+? It seems
> unlikely Trump's style suggests he will set himself (with US
> economic/military might) up as a third faction in a multipolar world.
>
> I'm sympathetic with those who cringe at a Unipolar or even Bipolar
> world which has been forming and reforming since WWI it seems?
> Yet I
> also think we are inevitably becoming a global superorganism?
> It does
> seem likely that multiple super-organisms will form a dynamic balance
> before they eventually lose their independent identities. Perhaps
> that
> can only occur fully as humanity (and Terran life in general?) go
> extra-planetary?
>
> I recently listened to an interview with Kimball Musk which
> expanded my
> appreciation for how complex social dynamics are or have been in
> SA, and
> how the violence of their childhood was formative for both he and
> Elon
> (in complementary ways?).
>
> More parallax is good.
>
> FWIW I don't think Trump's negotiating style is entirely ineffective,
> obviously he has obtained the power he has through some kinds of
> effectuality. My issue is whether "bullying is negotiation by other
> means" and whether I want to support or profit from it or be
> associated
> with it. I rode Elno's coat-tails financially (TSLA stock) for a
> while
> but finally felt I absolutely had to wipe his cooties off of me...
> his
> most recent behaviour (starting with Twitter takeover, ramping up
> with
> dancing giddily on stage with Trump and setting up $1M lotteries to
> motivate support) is beyond *my* pale (what a convoluted idiom
> that one
> is!).
>
> - Steve
> > There seems to be a strong consensus in this group that Trump
> does not
> > have a track record of being an effective negotiator, and his
> > perceived bullying only reinforces this view. So, contrary to
> what I
> > previously suggested, it’s not a separate issue.
> >
> > This topic has come up in various threads, and I may have
> overlooked
> > some of those discussions, which could mean I’ve been asserting
> things
> > that differ from what’s already been broadly accepted here.
> >
> > For now, I’ll step back from this thread and acknowledge that my
> > perspective on Trump as an effective negotiator isn’t widely
> shared.
> > Let's agree to disagree.
>
>
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