[FRIAM] betting markets

[Marcus Daniels]

I put my money into the campaign!

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of glen
Sent: Monday, November 4, 2024 10:55 AM
To: friam at redfish.com
Subject: [FRIAM] betting markets

Both Kalshi <https://kalshi.com/markets/pres/presidential-elections> and PolyMarket <https://polymarket.com/elections> skew heavily for Trump. I'm like ... 51% confident that Harris will win (barring legal shenanigans).  I figured I'd go ahead and participate. So I bought $50 worth of Harris "yes". And I've heard that there may be some rich people manipulating the market. It's not clear to me why they'd do that. But like Musk buying Twitter, it's clear that "disposable" income takes on a deeper meaning when you've got so much of it. But barring market manipulation: a) do y'all think the markets have more "information", whatever that means, than the polls? And b) are y'all participating in any of these markets?

-- 
ꙮ Mɥǝu ǝlǝdɥɐuʇs ɟᴉƃɥʇ' ʇɥǝ ƃɹɐss snɟɟǝɹs˙ ꙮ

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