[FRIAM] betting markets

[steve smith]

glen wrote:

re: Iowa Electronic Markets
>
> That's pretty clear cut. I'm like 95% confident Harris will win more 
> popular votes over the entire nation. I suppose these could just be 
> for Iowa. But I don't think so. 

The Iowa markets are open to anyone (worldwide?) I think... so folks who 
bet on the outcome don't necessarily have any direct influence on it 
(non-voters).


> The popular vote is only indirectly related to who will be inaugurated.

and yet moreso (indirect) with the shenanigans Trump has already (tried 
to) pull and the ones his foes have tried to game out ad prevent.

I'm pretty sure there are rules against betting on death-matches, so 
there are none reflecting assassinations or even attempted 
assassinations?   Who gets inaugurated if the elected candidate finally 
catches a bullet?