[FRIAM] betting markets

[glen]

That's interesting. Thanks!

DEM24_WTA	$1 if the Democratic Party nominee receives the majority of popular votes cast for the two major parties in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election, $0 otherwise
REP24_WTA	$1 if the Republican Party nominee receives the majority of popular votes cast for the two major parties in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election, $0 otherwise

That's pretty clear cut. I'm like 95% confident Harris will win more popular votes over the entire nation. I suppose these could just be for Iowa. But I don't think so. The popular vote is only indirectly related to who will be inaugurated.

On 11/4/24 11:20, Pietro Terna wrote:
>      Hi all,
> 
>      from Italy I look at https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/iem_market_info/2024-u-s-presidential-winner-takes-all-market/ and I hope...
> 
>      Best, Pietro
> 
> 
> 
> Il 04/11/24 19:55, glen ha scritto:
>> Both Kalshi <https://kalshi.com/markets/pres/presidential-elections> and PolyMarket <https://polymarket.com/elections> skew heavily for Trump. I'm like ... 51% confident that Harris will win (barring legal shenanigans).  I figured I'd go ahead and participate. So I bought $50 worth of Harris "yes". And I've heard that there may be some rich people manipulating the market. It's not clear to me why they'd do that. But like Musk buying Twitter, it's clear that "disposable" income takes on a deeper meaning when you've got so much of it. But barring market manipulation: a) do y'all think the markets have more "information", whatever that means, than the polls? And b) are y'all participating in any of these markets?
>>
> 
> -- 
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> 
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> 
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