[FRIAM] GhostGPT
steve smith
sasmyth at swcp.com
Tue Jan 28 15:57:40 EST 2025
On 1/28/25 11:02 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>
> My question was more about how quickly a population can transition
> from disorder to order. I was wondering if there were historical
> examples of these potent immune responses where the resolution was
> quick. A contemporary example is the removal of Yoon in South
> Korea. The mechanism might vary, but ours is a particularly violent
> culture.
>
I was raised on the myth of an ancient middle-eastern overthrow of a
repressive regime across a wide swath of highly distributed village
culture referred to as "the Night of the Long Knives". I find no
recorded reference to this, and in fact the most common reference
appears to be to the Nazi "Röhm Purge" of 1934? I think the "Sicilian
Vespers" <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sicilian_Vespers> or more
locally relevant The Pueblo Revolt
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pueblo_Revolt>?
My Ukranian colleagues claimed that *they* had been part of a somewhat
less abrupt immune response where the professional youth culture (<50)
made a pact to stamp out corruption (attributed to mostly Russian
Oligarchs and their minions) by simply refusing to pay bribes which took
about a year to break the habit.
Maybe in place of sending a check (or bank transfer) to the IRS this
year, send a copy of your check sent instead to California Wildfire
Recovery programs?
Mumble,
- Steve
> *From:*Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Stephen Guerin
> *Sent:* Tuesday, January 28, 2025 9:25 AM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> <friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] GhostGPT
>
> Prompt: steelman an argument that challenges the premise of my prompt
> on political violence. Audience FRIAM group email list. Snarky tone.
>
> Oh, so corruption and illegitimacy are supposed to be the magical
> catalysts for political violence? That’s an adorably tidy theory. The
> reality is messier—violence needs a potent brew of economic collapse,
> inequality, and sometimes foreign meddling, not just a "bad guy" in
> charge. Plenty of corrupt regimes limp along peacefully with patronage
> networks and repression, while their citizens begrudgingly prioritize
> stability over idealistic notions of "legitimacy." And let’s not
> pretend legitimacy is some universal standard—what’s corrupt to you
> might be perfectly fine to someone else (hello, cultural relativity).
> Besides, history is packed with examples of violence against perfectly
> legitimate leaders because deeper societal fractures were the real
> issue. So yeah, blaming political violence on corrupt leaders? Cute,
> but maybe think bigger.
>
> On Tue, Jan 28, 2025, 9:01 AM steve smith <sasmyth at swcp.com> wrote:
>
> Glen -
>
> I have to agree with you on your rant. Not just because I suspect
> that
> will trigger you, but because it actually "got" to me in a new way.
>
> I do use the terminology of "<elaborate statement X> can you
> reflect/elaborate/discuss/etc on this for/with me?" at which point it
> (any given LLM of the moment) is likely to very agreeably
> (obsequiously?) pretends to do just that. For my purposes, it is
> (almost?) as if it is in fact doing "just that"... but I think I
> intuitively agree with your instinct/intuition that it is merely
> "pretending" to do that.
>
> Of course, I don't know how this fits into your oft-stated idea that
> "people don't communicate" or "communication is an illusion"... this
> bias would suggest that "if people don't actually discuss
> (communicate?), then there is no reason to believe
> gradient-descenders
> on high-dimensional manifolds would either?"
>
> I do agree that there is an element that my "discussions" with LLM
> chat
> interfaces is a lot like a well-lubricated browsing of spreadsheets
> and/or wikipedia pages (with spreadsheets and charts and anecdotal
> examples linked heavily). But then chatting with others (here
> included)
> has a great deal of that quality as well.
>
> Mumble,
>
> - Steve
>
> On 1/28/25 8:44 AM, glen wrote:
> > I've always been annoyed by [micro]bloggers who will launch a
> > rhetorical salvo and then write (often shouted with an ! or all
> caps)
> > "Discuss!" What Claude and GPT are doing here is not discussing.
> It's
> > not even "discursing", which I guess isn't a word. The prompt would
> > better be "Lecture me on ...". But when I type that into the
> anthropic
> > console (3.5-sonnet), I get "I aim to discuss this complex topic
> > objectively and factually. Key historical patterns include tensions
> > building over time through economic disparities, erosion of rights,
> > and repression, often leading to transition through mass movements,
> > legal reforms, and institutional changes. I can discuss specific
> > historical examples if you're interested."
> >
> > Jesus H Christ. Claude is using your sense of the word "discuss"
> too!
> > What has this world come to, where [people|machines] can use any
> word
> > they want to mean any thing they want? Get off my lawn!
> >
> > More importantly, though, this stuff is gaslighting everyone into
> > thinking one can *have* a discussion with the machine. Can you?
> Is it
> > actually a discussion? I argue "no". It's much more akin to
> browsing a
> > spreadsheet than discussing. Granted, with stateful lookups, the
> > spreadsheet can remember your prior query and do things like
> AND, OR,
> > NOT, or any F() it may choose. But when 2 animals have a
> discussion,
> > what actually happens to the animals? Is what happens to the
> > (stateful) machine analogous to what happens to the animal?
> >
> > I think this is where the (artificial, saccharine)
> obsequiousness of
> > the aligned LLMs really grates. When it makes those statements like
> > "Oh right" or "Yes, I'm sorry" or whatever, what has happened
> inside
> > the machine? Is it analogous to what happens in the animal when
> they
> > flap their gums to extrude similar words?
> >
> > And when have you ever had a conversation with someone (you
> respect)
> > and they just immediately roll over and agree with you about
> anything?
> > Is this why people like "chatting" with LLMs? Because they're
> > obsequious? Is it just a fancier "filter bubble"? Ugh. Now I'm
> > nauseous. Thanks Obama.
> >
> >
> > On 1/27/25 5:16 PM, Stephen Guerin wrote:
> >> On Fri, Jan 24, 2025 at 1:08 PM Marcus Daniels
> <marcus at snoutfarm.com
> >> <mailto:marcus at snoutfarm.com>> wrote:
> >>
> >> I asked Claude about the historical patterns for emergence and
> >> resolution of political violence from corrupt leaders that are
> >> considered illegitimate, and it essentially refused to answer.
> >> ChatGPT was more forthcoming..
> >>
> >>
> >> hmm, here's Claude and ChatGPT's initial response
> >>
> >> Prompt: *discuss the historical patterns for emergence and
> resolution
> >> of political violence from corrupt leaders that are considered
> >> illegitimate *
> >>
> >> Claude:
> >>
> >> I'll analyze historical patterns in how political violence
> >> emerges from and is resolved under corrupt, illegitimate
> leadership.
> >> Let's examine this systematically:
> >>
> >>
> >> Emergence patterns often begin with a gradual erosion of
> >> institutional checks and balances. Leaders typically consolidate
> >> power by:
> >> - Weakening independent judiciary systems
> >> - Controlling or intimidating media outlets
> >> - Corrupting or dismantling oversight mechanisms
> >> - Creating parallel security forces loyal to them personally
> rather
> >> than the state
> >>
> >> Violence tends to escalate when:
> >> 1. Economic conditions deteriorate and inequality increases
> >> 2. Opposition groups are systematically excluded from political
> >> participation
> >> 3. Security forces are given impunity for human rights violations
> >> 4. Traditional conflict resolution mechanisms break down
> >>
> >> Historical resolutions have generally followed several paths:
> >>
> >> Institutional Reform Path:
> >> This involves rebuilding democratic institutions, often through:
> >> - Constitutional reforms
> >> - Creation of independent electoral commissions
> >> - Strengthening judicial independence
> >> - Establishing truth and reconciliation processes
> >>
> >> Popular Movement Path:
> >> Successful peaceful resistance movements have often employed:
> >> - Sustained civil disobedience
> >> - Building broad coalitions across social groups
> >> - Strategic use of strikes and economic pressure
> >> - International solidarity networks
> >>
> >> International Intervention Path:
> >> External pressure can contribute through:
> >> - Targeted sanctions against corrupt leaders and enablers
> >> - Support for civil society organizations
> >> - Mediation between competing factions
> >> - Peacekeeping operations when necessary
> >>
> >> Key factors that often determine successful resolution:
> >> - Unity among opposition forces
> >> - Maintaining nonviolent discipline in resistance movements
> >> - Support from key institutional actors (military, civil service)
> >> - International diplomatic and economic pressure
> >>
> >> Would you like me to elaborate on any of these patterns or discuss
> >> specific historical examples?
> >>
> >>
> --------------------------------------------------------------------
> >>
> >> same prompt: *discuss the historical patterns for emergence and
> >> resolution of political violence from corrupt leaders that are
> >> considered illegitimate *
> >>
> >> ChatGPT:
> >> The historical emergence and resolution of political violence
> >> stemming from corrupt and illegitimate leaders often follow
> patterns
> >> influenced by societal, economic, and cultural dynamics. These
> >> patterns can be divided into phases:
> >>
> >> ### 1. **Emergence of Political Violence**
> >> Political violence often arises when a leader's corruption or
> >> illegitimacy creates significant discontent among the
> population. Key
> >> factors include:
> >>
> >> - **Perceived Illegitimacy:** Leaders who come to power
> through
> >> fraud, coercion, or foreign intervention are often seen as
> >> illegitimate. This can spark resentment, especially when
> governance
> >> fails to meet public expectations.
> >> - **Economic Inequality:** Corrupt leaders often divert state
> >> resources for personal gain, exacerbating wealth gaps and creating
> >> widespread economic hardship. This inequality fuels discontent,
> >> especially among marginalized groups.
> >> - **Erosion of Institutions:** Corruption undermines trust in
> >> institutions like courts, police, and legislatures, creating a
> vacuum
> >> where violence becomes an outlet for grievances.
> >> - **Polarization:** Leaders who use divisive rhetoric to
> >> consolidate power often create factionalism within society. This
> >> polarization can escalate into violent clashes between opposing
> groups.
> >> - **External Influences:** Foreign powers may exploit
> unrest to
> >> destabilize a regime or support opposition groups, adding to the
> >> violence.
> >>
> >> ### 2. **Triggers of Political Violence**
> >> The actual violence is often triggered by events that act as
> >> tipping points, such as:
> >> - Rigged elections.
> >> - Unjustified crackdowns on protests.
> >> - Revelations of egregious corruption.
> >> - Human rights abuses or massacres.
> >>
> >> Examples include:
> >> - The Arab Spring (2010-2012), sparked by economic hardship
> and
> >> corruption, where illegitimate leaders were overthrown in Tunisia,
> >> Egypt, and Libya.
> >> - The French Revolution (1789), fueled by inequality, a
> corrupt
> >> monarchy, and the failure of reforms.
> >>
> >> ### 3. **Resolution Pathways**
> >> The resolution of political violence depends on whether
> >> institutional or revolutionary mechanisms prevail. Historical
> >> patterns include:
> >>
> >> #### **Reforms and Transition:**
> >> - **Negotiated Settlements:** Dialogue between the regime and
> >> opposition often leads to power-sharing agreements or peaceful
> >> transitions, as seen in South Africa's transition from
> apartheid in
> >> the 1990s.
> >> - **Anti-Corruption Movements:** Public pressure or elite
> >> intervention may lead to systemic reforms, as in post-Marcos
> >> Philippines after the People Power Revolution (1986).
> >>
> >> #### **Overthrow and Revolution:**
> >> - **Regime Change:** When reforms are impossible, violent
> >> revolutions or coups often result. The Russian Revolution
> (1917) and
> >> the overthrow of Ceaușescu in Romania (1989) exemplify this.
> >> - **Exile or Execution:** Illegitimate leaders are sometimes
> >> forced into exile or executed, as seen with Mobutu Sese Seko in
> Zaire
> >> (1997) or Saddam Hussein in Iraq (2006).
> >>
> >> #### **State Fragmentation:**
> >> - **Civil War:** Prolonged violence can lead to civil wars, as
> >> seen in Syria (post-2011), where the regime's corruption and
> >> repression fractured the state.
> >>
> >> ### 4. **Post-Conflict Reconstruction**
> >> After the resolution of violence, reconstruction efforts often
> >> determine long-term stability:
> >> - **Justice Mechanisms:** Trials or truth commissions address
> >> grievances and establish accountability, such as the Nuremberg
> Trials
> >> after WWII or the Truth and Reconciliation Commission in South
> Africa.
> >> - **Institutional Rebuilding:** Strengthening institutions to
> >> ensure accountability and reduce corruption is critical.
> >> - **Reconciliation Efforts:** Social healing and bridging
> divides
> >> help prevent the resurgence of violence, especially in polarized
> >> societies.
> >>
> >> ### 5. **Broader Historical Insights**
> >> - **Cycles of Corruption and Reform:** Political systems often
> >> experience cycles where corruption accumulates until it triggers
> >> violence or reform, only to repeat in new forms (e.g., the Roman
> >> Empire's fall or Latin American dictatorships in the 20th century).
> >> - **Role of Leadership and Movements:** Effective
> leadership and
> >> well-organized movements often determine whether change occurs
> >> peacefully or through violence.
> >> - **Global Trends:** External pressures, such as economic
> >> sanctions or global public opinion, can expedite resolutions
> but may
> >> also exacerbate conflict.
> >>
> >> ### Lessons for Today
> >> The patterns of political violence around corrupt leaders
> underscore
> >> the importance of:
> >> - Inclusive governance to address grievances before they
> escalate.
> >> - Strong institutions that resist corruption and ensure
> legitimacy.
> >> - Global and regional mechanisms to mediate conflicts and
> promote
> >> peaceful transitions.
> >>
> >> Do you want to explore examples in more detail or focus on a
> >> particular region or time period?
> >>
>
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> ____________________________________________
> CEO Founder, Simtable.com
> stephen.guerin at simtable.com
>
> Harvard Visualization Research and Teaching Lab
> stephenguerin at fas.harvard.edu
>
> mobile: (505)577-5828
>
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