[FRIAM] GhostGPT
steve smith
sasmyth at swcp.com
Tue Jan 28 16:00:26 EST 2025
On 1/28/25 11:29 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>
> It could be good for Trump to stay, because the betrayal could be
> deeply demoralizing and humiliating to his supporters. We may NEED
> this damage. Thomas Friedman noticed a few weeks ago that AI was
> going to be one of Trump’s risks: More people rendered redundant.
>
"Sometimes things have to get worse before they can get better"
Aphorismically Yours,
- Sassafrass
> *From:*Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Stephen Guerin
> *Sent:* Tuesday, January 28, 2025 10:17 AM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> <friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] GhostGPT
>
> On Tue, Jan 28, 2025, 11:02 AM Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com>
> wrote:
>
> My question was more about how quickly a population can transition
> from disorder to order. I was wondering if there were
> historical examples of these potent immune responses where the
> resolution was quick. A contemporary example is the removal of
> Yoon in South Korea. The mechanism might vary, but ours is a
> particularly violent culture.
>
> Focusing on Trump as an individual, even as a legitimately elected
> leader, ignores the systemic issues that enabled his rise, like
> institutional decay and economic disparity. Political unrest reflects
> deeper societal fractures that persist beyond one administration.
> Unlike South Korea’s removal of Park Geun-hye, the U.S. lacks the
> cohesive trust and mechanisms needed for similar reform. Targeting
> Trump alone risks leaving those root causes untouched, inviting the
> same problems to reemerge.
>
> - Dan
>
> *From:*Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Stephen Guerin
> *Sent:* Tuesday, January 28, 2025 9:25 AM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> <friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] GhostGPT
>
> Prompt: steelman an argument that challenges the premise of my
> prompt on political violence. Audience FRIAM group email list.
> Snarky tone.
>
> Oh, so corruption and illegitimacy are supposed to be the magical
> catalysts for political violence? That’s an adorably tidy theory.
> The reality is messier—violence needs a potent brew of economic
> collapse, inequality, and sometimes foreign meddling, not just a
> "bad guy" in charge. Plenty of corrupt regimes limp along
> peacefully with patronage networks and repression, while their
> citizens begrudgingly prioritize stability over idealistic notions
> of "legitimacy." And let’s not pretend legitimacy is some
> universal standard—what’s corrupt to you might be perfectly fine
> to someone else (hello, cultural relativity). Besides, history is
> packed with examples of violence against perfectly legitimate
> leaders because deeper societal fractures were the real issue. So
> yeah, blaming political violence on corrupt leaders? Cute, but
> maybe think bigger.
>
> On Tue, Jan 28, 2025, 9:01 AM steve smith <sasmyth at swcp.com> wrote:
>
> Glen -
>
> I have to agree with you on your rant. Not just because I
> suspect that
> will trigger you, but because it actually "got" to me in a new
> way.
>
> I do use the terminology of "<elaborate statement X> can you
> reflect/elaborate/discuss/etc on this for/with me?" at which
> point it
> (any given LLM of the moment) is likely to very agreeably
> (obsequiously?) pretends to do just that. For my purposes, it is
> (almost?) as if it is in fact doing "just that"... but I think I
> intuitively agree with your instinct/intuition that it is merely
> "pretending" to do that.
>
> Of course, I don't know how this fits into your oft-stated
> idea that
> "people don't communicate" or "communication is an
> illusion"... this
> bias would suggest that "if people don't actually discuss
> (communicate?), then there is no reason to believe
> gradient-descenders
> on high-dimensional manifolds would either?"
>
> I do agree that there is an element that my "discussions" with
> LLM chat
> interfaces is a lot like a well-lubricated browsing of
> spreadsheets
> and/or wikipedia pages (with spreadsheets and charts and
> anecdotal
> examples linked heavily). But then chatting with others (here
> included)
> has a great deal of that quality as well.
>
> Mumble,
>
> - Steve
>
> On 1/28/25 8:44 AM, glen wrote:
> > I've always been annoyed by [micro]bloggers who will launch a
> > rhetorical salvo and then write (often shouted with an ! or
> all caps)
> > "Discuss!" What Claude and GPT are doing here is not
> discussing. It's
> > not even "discursing", which I guess isn't a word. The
> prompt would
> > better be "Lecture me on ...". But when I type that into the
> anthropic
> > console (3.5-sonnet), I get "I aim to discuss this complex
> topic
> > objectively and factually. Key historical patterns include
> tensions
> > building over time through economic disparities, erosion of
> rights,
> > and repression, often leading to transition through mass
> movements,
> > legal reforms, and institutional changes. I can discuss
> specific
> > historical examples if you're interested."
> >
> > Jesus H Christ. Claude is using your sense of the word
> "discuss" too!
> > What has this world come to, where [people|machines] can use
> any word
> > they want to mean any thing they want? Get off my lawn!
> >
> > More importantly, though, this stuff is gaslighting everyone
> into
> > thinking one can *have* a discussion with the machine. Can
> you? Is it
> > actually a discussion? I argue "no". It's much more akin to
> browsing a
> > spreadsheet than discussing. Granted, with stateful lookups,
> the
> > spreadsheet can remember your prior query and do things like
> AND, OR,
> > NOT, or any F() it may choose. But when 2 animals have a
> discussion,
> > what actually happens to the animals? Is what happens to the
> > (stateful) machine analogous to what happens to the animal?
> >
> > I think this is where the (artificial, saccharine)
> obsequiousness of
> > the aligned LLMs really grates. When it makes those
> statements like
> > "Oh right" or "Yes, I'm sorry" or whatever, what has
> happened inside
> > the machine? Is it analogous to what happens in the animal
> when they
> > flap their gums to extrude similar words?
> >
> > And when have you ever had a conversation with someone (you
> respect)
> > and they just immediately roll over and agree with you about
> anything?
> > Is this why people like "chatting" with LLMs? Because they're
> > obsequious? Is it just a fancier "filter bubble"? Ugh. Now I'm
> > nauseous. Thanks Obama.
> >
> >
> > On 1/27/25 5:16 PM, Stephen Guerin wrote:
> >> On Fri, Jan 24, 2025 at 1:08 PM Marcus Daniels
> <marcus at snoutfarm.com
> >> <mailto:marcus at snoutfarm.com>> wrote:
> >>
> >> I asked Claude about the historical patterns for
> emergence and
> >> resolution of political violence from corrupt leaders that are
> >> considered illegitimate, and it essentially refused to answer.
> >> ChatGPT was more forthcoming..
> >>
> >>
> >> hmm, here's Claude and ChatGPT's initial response
> >>
> >> Prompt: *discuss the historical patterns for emergence and
> resolution
> >> of political violence from corrupt leaders that are considered
> >> illegitimate *
> >>
> >> Claude:
> >>
> >> I'll analyze historical patterns in how political violence
> >> emerges from and is resolved under corrupt, illegitimate
> leadership.
> >> Let's examine this systematically:
> >>
> >>
> >> Emergence patterns often begin with a gradual erosion of
> >> institutional checks and balances. Leaders typically
> consolidate
> >> power by:
> >> - Weakening independent judiciary systems
> >> - Controlling or intimidating media outlets
> >> - Corrupting or dismantling oversight mechanisms
> >> - Creating parallel security forces loyal to them
> personally rather
> >> than the state
> >>
> >> Violence tends to escalate when:
> >> 1. Economic conditions deteriorate and inequality increases
> >> 2. Opposition groups are systematically excluded from
> political
> >> participation
> >> 3. Security forces are given impunity for human rights
> violations
> >> 4. Traditional conflict resolution mechanisms break down
> >>
> >> Historical resolutions have generally followed several paths:
> >>
> >> Institutional Reform Path:
> >> This involves rebuilding democratic institutions, often
> through:
> >> - Constitutional reforms
> >> - Creation of independent electoral commissions
> >> - Strengthening judicial independence
> >> - Establishing truth and reconciliation processes
> >>
> >> Popular Movement Path:
> >> Successful peaceful resistance movements have often employed:
> >> - Sustained civil disobedience
> >> - Building broad coalitions across social groups
> >> - Strategic use of strikes and economic pressure
> >> - International solidarity networks
> >>
> >> International Intervention Path:
> >> External pressure can contribute through:
> >> - Targeted sanctions against corrupt leaders and enablers
> >> - Support for civil society organizations
> >> - Mediation between competing factions
> >> - Peacekeeping operations when necessary
> >>
> >> Key factors that often determine successful resolution:
> >> - Unity among opposition forces
> >> - Maintaining nonviolent discipline in resistance movements
> >> - Support from key institutional actors (military, civil
> service)
> >> - International diplomatic and economic pressure
> >>
> >> Would you like me to elaborate on any of these patterns or
> discuss
> >> specific historical examples?
> >>
> >>
> --------------------------------------------------------------------
> >>
> >> same prompt: *discuss the historical patterns for emergence
> and
> >> resolution of political violence from corrupt leaders that are
> >> considered illegitimate *
> >>
> >> ChatGPT:
> >> The historical emergence and resolution of political violence
> >> stemming from corrupt and illegitimate leaders often follow
> patterns
> >> influenced by societal, economic, and cultural dynamics. These
> >> patterns can be divided into phases:
> >>
> >> ### 1. **Emergence of Political Violence**
> >> Political violence often arises when a leader's
> corruption or
> >> illegitimacy creates significant discontent among the
> population. Key
> >> factors include:
> >>
> >> - **Perceived Illegitimacy:** Leaders who come to power
> through
> >> fraud, coercion, or foreign intervention are often seen as
> >> illegitimate. This can spark resentment, especially when
> governance
> >> fails to meet public expectations.
> >> - **Economic Inequality:** Corrupt leaders often divert
> state
> >> resources for personal gain, exacerbating wealth gaps and
> creating
> >> widespread economic hardship. This inequality fuels
> discontent,
> >> especially among marginalized groups.
> >> - **Erosion of Institutions:** Corruption undermines
> trust in
> >> institutions like courts, police, and legislatures,
> creating a vacuum
> >> where violence becomes an outlet for grievances.
> >> - **Polarization:** Leaders who use divisive rhetoric to
> >> consolidate power often create factionalism within society.
> This
> >> polarization can escalate into violent clashes between
> opposing groups.
> >> - **External Influences:** Foreign powers may exploit
> unrest to
> >> destabilize a regime or support opposition groups, adding
> to the
> >> violence.
> >>
> >> ### 2. **Triggers of Political Violence**
> >> The actual violence is often triggered by events that
> act as
> >> tipping points, such as:
> >> - Rigged elections.
> >> - Unjustified crackdowns on protests.
> >> - Revelations of egregious corruption.
> >> - Human rights abuses or massacres.
> >>
> >> Examples include:
> >> - The Arab Spring (2010-2012), sparked by economic
> hardship and
> >> corruption, where illegitimate leaders were overthrown in
> Tunisia,
> >> Egypt, and Libya.
> >> - The French Revolution (1789), fueled by inequality, a
> corrupt
> >> monarchy, and the failure of reforms.
> >>
> >> ### 3. **Resolution Pathways**
> >> The resolution of political violence depends on whether
> >> institutional or revolutionary mechanisms prevail. Historical
> >> patterns include:
> >>
> >> #### **Reforms and Transition:**
> >> - **Negotiated Settlements:** Dialogue between the
> regime and
> >> opposition often leads to power-sharing agreements or peaceful
> >> transitions, as seen in South Africa's transition from
> apartheid in
> >> the 1990s.
> >> - **Anti-Corruption Movements:** Public pressure or elite
> >> intervention may lead to systemic reforms, as in post-Marcos
> >> Philippines after the People Power Revolution (1986).
> >>
> >> #### **Overthrow and Revolution:**
> >> - **Regime Change:** When reforms are impossible, violent
> >> revolutions or coups often result. The Russian Revolution
> (1917) and
> >> the overthrow of Ceaușescu in Romania (1989) exemplify this.
> >> - **Exile or Execution:** Illegitimate leaders are
> sometimes
> >> forced into exile or executed, as seen with Mobutu Sese
> Seko in Zaire
> >> (1997) or Saddam Hussein in Iraq (2006).
> >>
> >> #### **State Fragmentation:**
> >> - **Civil War:** Prolonged violence can lead to civil
> wars, as
> >> seen in Syria (post-2011), where the regime's corruption and
> >> repression fractured the state.
> >>
> >> ### 4. **Post-Conflict Reconstruction**
> >> After the resolution of violence, reconstruction
> efforts often
> >> determine long-term stability:
> >> - **Justice Mechanisms:** Trials or truth commissions
> address
> >> grievances and establish accountability, such as the
> Nuremberg Trials
> >> after WWII or the Truth and Reconciliation Commission in
> South Africa.
> >> - **Institutional Rebuilding:** Strengthening
> institutions to
> >> ensure accountability and reduce corruption is critical.
> >> - **Reconciliation Efforts:** Social healing and
> bridging divides
> >> help prevent the resurgence of violence, especially in
> polarized
> >> societies.
> >>
> >> ### 5. **Broader Historical Insights**
> >> - **Cycles of Corruption and Reform:** Political
> systems often
> >> experience cycles where corruption accumulates until it
> triggers
> >> violence or reform, only to repeat in new forms (e.g., the
> Roman
> >> Empire's fall or Latin American dictatorships in the 20th
> century).
> >> - **Role of Leadership and Movements:** Effective
> leadership and
> >> well-organized movements often determine whether change occurs
> >> peacefully or through violence.
> >> - **Global Trends:** External pressures, such as economic
> >> sanctions or global public opinion, can expedite
> resolutions but may
> >> also exacerbate conflict.
> >>
> >> ### Lessons for Today
> >> The patterns of political violence around corrupt leaders
> underscore
> >> the importance of:
> >> - Inclusive governance to address grievances before
> they escalate.
> >> - Strong institutions that resist corruption and ensure
> legitimacy.
> >> - Global and regional mechanisms to mediate conflicts
> and promote
> >> peaceful transitions.
> >>
> >> Do you want to explore examples in more detail or focus on a
> >> particular region or time period?
> >>
>
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> ____________________________________________
> CEO Founder, Simtable.com
> stephen.guerin at simtable.com
>
> Harvard Visualization Research and Teaching Lab
> stephenguerin at fas.harvard.edu
>
> mobile: (505)577-5828
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