[FRIAM] Limits to Growth

[Pieter Steenekamp]

I’ve always loved the Simon-Ehrlich bet story—two clever guys betting on
the future of the planet. Ehrlich lost the bet, but the debate still runs
circles today.

https://ourworldindata.org/simon-ehrlich-bet

This article nails it: over the long term, prices mostly go down, not up,
as innovation kicks in. We don’t "run out" of resources—we get better at
using them. Scarcity shifts, but human creativity shifts faster.

The Limits to Growth folks had good intentions, but the real limit seems to
be how fast we can adapt and rethink. And so far, we’re doing okay—messy,
uneven, but okay.

Turns out, betting against human ingenuity is the real risky business.

On Fri, 30 May 2025 at 21:51, steve smith <sasmyth at swcp.com> wrote:

> REC -
>
> Very timely...  I did a deep dive/revisit (also met the seminal work in
> college in the 70s) into Limits to Growth and World3 before the Stockholm
> workshop on Climate (and other existential threats) Complexity Merle
> wrangled in 2019....  and was both impressed and disappointed.   Rockstrom
> and folks were located right across the water from us where we met but to
> my knowledge didn't engage... their work was very complementary but did not
> feel as relevant to me then as it does now.
>
> In the following interview, I felt he began to address many of the things
> I (previously) felt were lacking in their framework previoiusly.  It was
> there all the time I'm sure, I just didn't see it and I think they were not
> ready to talk as broadly of implications 5 years ago as they are now?
>
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6_3mOgvrN4
>
> Did anyone notice the swiss village inundated by debris and meltwater from
> the glacier collapse uphill?   Signs of the times or "business as usual"?
>
> - SAS
> On 5/30/25 12:16 PM, Roger Critchlow wrote:
>
>
> https://thenextwavefutures.wordpress.com/2025/05/20/limits-to-growth-was-right-about-overshoot-and-collapse-new-data/
>
> I remember the Limits to Growth from my freshman year in college.  Now
> Hackernews links to the above in which some people argue that we've
> achieved the predicted overshoot for the business as usual scenario and the
> subsequent collapse begins now.  Enjoy the peak of human technological
> development.
>
> -- rec --
>
>
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