[FRIAM] Ah Hah! moment.

[Marcus Daniels]

An example of how economic/cultural information is important.  (Dave’s remark.)
How much debt individuals of different socioeconomic levels can take on, how much debt the states and federal government will tolerate, perception of health risk in different communities, etc.  These things may ebb and flow as people are employed and unemployed.  Calibrating all that seems impossible.

From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of "thompnickson2 at gmail.com" <thompnickson2 at gmail.com>
Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com>
Date: Friday, May 8, 2020 at 1:34 PM
To: 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' <friam at redfish.com>
Subject: [FRIAM] Ah Hah! moment.

All,


Thanks in part to Glen, I now see why doubling rate is no longer a good measure of peril in a county or state.   A reason is that it is insensitive to resurgence.  They look like they are having a resurgence in Washington state. The recent curve of new cases is sharply upward.   But a doubling-time standard wont reflect the resurgence because even though the number of cases per day is increasing again, there are so many cases “in the bank” that it takes a long time to double them.  Thank you, Glen, ‘n everybody.

Nick

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com<mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com>
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/


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